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Paloma Lake Entry-Level Homes: Can Buyers Afford Them?
By George Arnold Alexander III, MPA · Associate Broker · 2026-10-26
Deal of the Week

Deals of the Week by price quartile. The quartiles come from the last 12 months of closed sales here. Each pick has the top ALEX deal score in its price range.
Lower quartile: under $446,000
2749 Santa Ana LN, Round Rock TX 78665 · MLS #7694163
Listed at $420,000, 4 bed, 2 bath, 2,313 sq ft. Listed 6% below the ALEX valuation; 7% under the local price per sq ft; price reduced 7% from original.
See it on alex.realestate: https://www.alex.realestate/listing-detail/1188239143/2749-Santa-Ana-LN-Round-Rock-TX
Lower-middle quartile: $446,000 to $500,000
2474 Santa Barbara LOOP, Round Rock TX 78665 · MLS #6005005
Listed at $489,000, 4 bed, 2.5 bath, 3,336 sq ft. Listed 1% below the ALEX valuation; 21% under the local price per sq ft; price reduced 2% from original.
See it on alex.realestate: https://www.alex.realestate/listing-detail/1188461687/2474-Santa-Barbara-LOOP-Round-Rock-TX
Upper-middle quartile: $500,000 to $582,000
3236 Hidalgo LOOP, Round Rock TX 78665 · MLS #6337913
Listed at $525,000, 4 bed, 3.5 bath, 2,826 sq ft. Listed 10% below the ALEX valuation; price reduced 17% from original.
See it on alex.realestate: https://www.alex.realestate/listing-detail/1186541702/3236-Hidalgo-LOOP-Round-Rock-TX
Upper quartile: $582,000 and up
2928 San Milan PASS, Round Rock TX 78665 · MLS #8231402
Listed at $675,000, 4 bed, 3.5 bath, 3,380 sq ft. Listed 0% below the ALEX valuation; price reduced 3% from original.
See it on alex.realestate: https://www.alex.realestate/listing-detail/1183193694/2928-San-Milan-PASS-Round-Rock-TX
Key figures · Paloma Lake · rolling 12 months ending Sep 30, 2026
- 55 homes sold in Paloma Lake in the 12 months ending Sep 30, 2026 (up 17.0% on a year earlier).
- Median sale price: $504,250 (down 4.0% on a year earlier).
- Median price per square foot: $187.
- Median days on market: 26.
- Median sale price as a share of the original list price: 96.5%.
- 19 homes for sale now, about 3.3 months of supply at the pace of the last six months.
Source: Unlock MLS, rolling 12 months ending Sep 30, 2026. Homes only (single-family, condo, townhome). Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed.
Can buyers afford homes in the entry-level price tier of Paloma Lake? With a median sale price of $435,000 for the bottom quartile of sales and current mortgage rates at 7.32%, affordability remains a key factor for local buyers.
ALEX Intelligence analyzed the bottom price quartile across 55 closed sales in the rolling 12 months ending September 2026 to determine what entry-level purchasing power looks like today. The median sale price for these homes stands at $435,000, down 4% from the prior period and 4% lower than the same window last year.
At a 7.32% interest rate on a 30-year fixed loan, a buyer purchasing a median entry-level home would face a principal and interest payment of approximately $2,771 per month based on the market median price of $504,250. The data shows that 74.5% of these homes sold below their original list price, indicating that buyers in this segment have significant negotiating leverage.
The analysis relies on 55 closed sales, meeting the minimum sample size for Tier C data. While the median living area has grown slightly to 2,821 square feet, the combination of higher rates and lower sale prices suggests a market where affordability is driven by price adjustments rather than rate reductions. This analysis uses actual transaction outcomes rather than theoretical projections.
Want to see this home? Call or text George at 713.918.9951 for a private showing.
Data from Unlock MLS. Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Model outputs are ALEX Intelligence estimates, not appraisals.
Read more Central Texas market data on the ALEX blog: https://alex-companies.com/blog
Source data: Unlock MLS closed sales and financing data, rolling 12 months ending Sep 30, 2026, n=55
Licensed by the Texas Real Estate Commission. Broker: Alexander Tiffany Southwest, LLC · License #565194-BB.
Diane Hart Alexander, Chair & CEO, ALEX Companies · Designated Broker · #574877-B · George Arnold Alexander III, Partner, ALEX Companies · Associate Broker · #574878-B
Texas Real Estate Commission Information About Brokerage Services · TREC Consumer Protection Notice · trec.texas.gov
Diane Hart Alexander, Chair & CEO, ALEX Companies · Designated Broker · #574877-B · George Arnold Alexander III, Partner, ALEX Companies · Associate Broker · #574878-B
Texas Real Estate Commission Information About Brokerage Services · TREC Consumer Protection Notice · trec.texas.gov










