| George Arnold Alexander III, MPA |
| MIT, Nvidia, Google, AWS & IBM-Trained. Cross-Domain Expert. Castor Venture Club. |
| Partner, ALEX Companies |
| Associate Broker, Alexander Tiffany Southwest, LLC dba ALEX.realestate, et al. |
| Texas License #574878-B · Texas Broker License #565194-BB |
| Broker · North Carolina License #367733 |
| Independent Broker · Colorado License #II.100112456 |
| Broker · Alabama License #000178406 |
| [email protected] · +1 713.918.9951 |
| Join any of our 46 LinkedIn Groups spanning Quantum, AI and Tennessee to Texas. |
| Follow one or all of our 106 greater Austin communities, cities and counties on our Blog. |
| TREC Information About Brokerage Services · TREC Consumer Protection Notice |
Forest Creek: How Mortgage Rates Shape Buying Power This Fall
By George Arnold Alexander III, MPA · Associate Broker · 2026-10-26
Deal of the Week

Deals of the Week by price quartile. The quartiles come from the last 12 months of closed sales here. Each pick has the top ALEX deal score in its price range.
Lower quartile: under $430,000
3924 Links LN, Round Rock TX 78664 · MLS #4659770
Listed at $374,900, 4 bed, 2 bath, 2,166 sq ft. Listed 10% below the ALEX valuation; 11% under the local price per sq ft; price reduced 11% from original.
See it on alex.realestate: https://www.alex.realestate/listing-detail/1184408444/3924-Links-LN-Round-Rock-TX
Lower-middle quartile: $430,000 to $541,000
100 Sandy Lyle CV, Round Rock TX 78664 · MLS #9732365
Listed at $515,800, 4 bed, 3.5 bath, 3,216 sq ft. Listed 4% below the ALEX valuation; 18% under the local price per sq ft; price reduced 6% from original.
See it on alex.realestate: https://www.alex.realestate/listing-detail/1183355860/100-Sandy-Lyle-CV-Round-Rock-TX
Upper-middle quartile: $541,000 to $676,000
3959 Lord Byron CIR, Round Rock TX 78664 · MLS #3117287
Listed at $665,000, 4 bed, 4 bath, 4,062 sq ft. Listed 5% below the ALEX valuation; 16% under the local price per sq ft; price reduced 7% from original.
See it on alex.realestate: https://www.alex.realestate/listing-detail/1175592740/3959-Lord-Byron-CIR-Round-Rock-TX
Upper quartile: $676,000 and up
4013 Harvey Penick DR, Round Rock TX 78664 · MLS #9318775
Listed at $699,000, 4 bed, 3.5 bath, 3,834 sq ft. Listed 4% below the ALEX valuation; 7% under the local price per sq ft; price reduced 13% from original.
See it on alex.realestate: https://www.alex.realestate/listing-detail/1179231935/4013-Harvey-Penick-DR-Round-Rock-TX
Key figures · Forest Creek · rolling 12 months ending Sep 30, 2026
- 51 homes sold in Forest Creek in the 12 months ending Sep 30, 2026 (down 8.9% on a year earlier).
- Median sale price: $540,850 (down 5.1% on a year earlier).
- Median price per square foot: $192.
- Median days on market: 40.
- Median sale price as a share of the original list price: 93.7%.
- 20 homes for sale now, about 3.8 months of supply at the pace of the last six months.
Source: Unlock MLS, rolling 12 months ending Sep 30, 2026. Homes only (single-family, condo, townhome). Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed.
What does a 7.32% mortgage rate mean for buyers in Forest Creek today? With the median closed price at $540,850 across 51 sales over the trailing 12 months, monthly payments are sensitive to every basis point. A standard 30-year fixed loan with 20% down on that median price yields a principal-and-interest payment of $2,972 per month.
ALEX Intelligence modeled how temporary rate buydowns affect affordability for this specific price point. A 3-2-1 buydown reduces the note rate to 4.32% in year one, cutting the monthly payment by $826 and saving $9,912 that year. The total cost of this buydown is $20,136, or 3.72% of the median sale price. A 2-1 buydown offers a smaller reduction for a monthly saving of $564 in year one, at a total cost of $10,224 (1.89% of price).
These figures show that while rates are elevated, structured concessions can temporarily lower the entry barrier. The data reflects current market conditions where 88% of sales closed below original list prices and median days on market have risen to 40 days. Buyers should weigh the upfront cost of a buydown against their long-term rate expectations and cash flow needs.
The mortgage rate source is Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey, 30-year fixed, week of October 22, 2026 (FRED MORTGAGE30US). All model outputs are ALEX Intelligence estimates, not appraisals.
Want to see this home? Call or text George at 713.918.9951 for a private showing.
Data from Unlock MLS. Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Model outputs are ALEX Intelligence estimates, not appraisals.
Read more Central Texas market data on the ALEX blog: https://alex-companies.com/blog
Source data: Unlock MLS closed sales, rolling 12 months ending Sep 30, 2026; mortgage rates from Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey, week of Oct 22, 2026
Licensed by the Texas Real Estate Commission. Broker: Alexander Tiffany Southwest, LLC · License #565194-BB.
Diane Hart Alexander, Chair & CEO, ALEX Companies · Designated Broker · #574877-B · George Arnold Alexander III, Partner, ALEX Companies · Associate Broker · #574878-B
Texas Real Estate Commission Information About Brokerage Services · TREC Consumer Protection Notice · trec.texas.gov
Diane Hart Alexander, Chair & CEO, ALEX Companies · Designated Broker · #574877-B · George Arnold Alexander III, Partner, ALEX Companies · Associate Broker · #574878-B
Texas Real Estate Commission Information About Brokerage Services · TREC Consumer Protection Notice · trec.texas.gov










