| George Arnold Alexander III, MPA |
| Partner, ALEX Companies |
| Associate Broker, Alexander Tiffany Southwest, LLC |
| Licensed Broker in TX, CO, NC, AL |
| [email protected] · +1 713.918.9951 |
| TREC Information About Brokerage Services · TREC Consumer Protection Notice |
Lariat Market Heat Score: What the Data Says Today
By George Arnold Alexander III, MPA · Associate Broker · 2026-11-07
Deal of the Week

Deals of the Week by price quartile. The quartiles come from the last 12 months of closed sales here. Each pick has the top ALEX deal score in its price range.
Lower quartile: under $390,000
321 Lariat LOOP, Liberty Hill TX 78642 · MLS #4177116
Listed at $389,999, 4 bed, 2.5 bath, 2,857 sq ft. Listed 14% below the ALEX valuation; 30% under the local price per sq ft; price reduced 18% from original.
See it on alex.realestate: https://www.alex.realestate/listing-detail/1183013915/321-Lariat-LOOP-Liberty-Hill-TX
Lower-middle quartile: $390,000 to $462,000
510 Outrider CT, Liberty Hill TX 78642 · MLS #5084295
Listed at $399,900, 4 bed, 2.5 bath, 2,079 sq ft. Listed 8% below the ALEX valuation; price reduced 20% from original.
See it on alex.realestate: https://www.alex.realestate/listing-detail/1184701047/510-Outrider-CT-Liberty-Hill-TX
Upper-middle quartile: $462,000 to $580,000
101 Gibbs DR, Liberty Hill TX 78642 · MLS #9143942
Listed at $569,900, 4 bed, 4.5 bath, 3,524 sq ft. Listed 6% below the ALEX valuation; 10% under the local price per sq ft; price reduced 14% from original.
See it on alex.realestate: https://www.alex.realestate/listing-detail/1179536196/101-Gibbs-DR-Liberty-Hill-TX
Upper quartile: $580,000 and up
237 Sheepdog DR, Liberty Hill TX 78642 · MLS #5202055
Listed at $599,881, 4 bed, 4.5 bath, 3,452 sq ft. Listed 6% below the ALEX valuation; 4% under the local price per sq ft; price reduced 16% from original.
See it on alex.realestate: https://www.alex.realestate/listing-detail/1175451481/237-Sheepdog-DR-Liberty-Hill-TX
Key figures · Lariat · rolling 6 months ending Oct 31, 2026
- 112 homes sold in Lariat in the 6 months ending Oct 31, 2026 (up 43.6% on a year earlier).
- Median sale price: $460,125 (down 4.2% on a year earlier).
- Median price per square foot: $185.
- Median days on market: 70.
- Median sale price as a share of the original list price: 91.7%.
- 100 homes for sale now, about 5.4 months of supply at the pace of the last six months.
Source: Unlock MLS, rolling 6 months ending Oct 31, 2026. Homes only (single-family, condo, townhome). Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed.
Is the Lariat market cooling or holding steady? The ALEX Intelligence Market Heat Score for this master-planned community is a composite index weighing four key factors: median days on market, sale-to-list price ratio, inventory levels, and the frequency of price reductions.
Over the rolling six months ending October 31, 2026, homes in Lariat spent a median of 70 days on the market. While this is down 28.6% from the prior six-month period, it remains significantly higher than the regional average of 58 days. The median sale price was $460,125, representing a 1.1% decrease from the previous half-year but still 4.2% below the same window last year.
Buyers are currently negotiating closer to list prices than they were six months ago. The median close-to-original-list ratio reached 91.7%, an improvement of 4.6 percentage points compared to the prior period. However, 90.2% of closed sales still sold below their original asking price. With 5.36 months of inventory available today, the market leans toward a balanced state rather than a seller's frenzy.
This score reflects a market that is stabilizing after a period of slower activity. The data indicates that while homes are selling faster than they were earlier this year, the pace has not yet returned to the speed seen in previous years. Buyers have more leverage now, but sellers who price correctly can still move properties within two months.
ALEX Intelligence estimate, not an appraisal.
Want a closer look? Reply or call George at 713.918.9951 and we'll set up a showing.
Data from Unlock MLS. Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Model outputs are ALEX Intelligence estimates, not appraisals.
Read more Central Texas market data on the ALEX blog: https://alex-companies.com/blog
Source data: Unlock MLS, rolling 6 months ending Oct 31, 2026, n=112
Licensed by the Texas Real Estate Commission. Broker: Alexander Tiffany Southwest, LLC · License #565194-BB.
Diane Hart Alexander, Chair & CEO, ALEX Companies · Designated Broker · #574877-B · George Arnold Alexander III, Partner, ALEX Companies · Associate Broker · #574878-B
Texas Real Estate Commission Information About Brokerage Services · TREC Consumer Protection Notice · trec.texas.gov
Diane Hart Alexander, Chair & CEO, ALEX Companies · Designated Broker · #574877-B · George Arnold Alexander III, Partner, ALEX Companies · Associate Broker · #574878-B
Texas Real Estate Commission Information About Brokerage Services · TREC Consumer Protection Notice · trec.texas.gov










