Lariat Entry-Level Homes: Affordability Check for November

Deal of the Week

Deals of the Week by price quartile. The quartiles come from the last 12 months of closed sales here. Each pick has the top ALEX deal score in its price range. Lower quartile: under $390,000 437 Carr DR, Liberty Hill TX 78642 · MLS #1951656 Listed at $289,715, 3 bed, 2.5 bath, 1,801 sq ft. Listed 16% below the ALEX valuation; 11% under the local price per sq ft; price reduced 23% from original. See it on alex.realestate: https://www.alex.realestate/listing-detail/1188566749/437-Carr-DR-Liberty-Hill-TX Lower-middle quartile: $390,000 to $462,000 101 Gary Wayne DR, Liberty Hill TX 78642 · MLS #2954475 Listed at $425,000, 4 bed, 3 bath, 2,954 sq ft. Listed 8% below the ALEX valuation; 27% under the local price per sq ft; price reduced 8% from original. See it on alex.realestate: https://www.alex.realestate/listing-detail/1185612506/101-Gary-Wayne-DR-Liberty-Hill-TX Upper-middle quartile: $462,000 to $587,000 109 Statue DR, Liberty Hill TX 78642 · MLS #4859673 Listed at $569,900, 4 bed, 3 bath, 3,252 sq ft. Listed 5% below the ALEX valuation; price reduced 16% from original. See it on alex.realestate: https://www.alex.realestate/listing-detail/1179707346/109-Statue-DR-Liberty-Hill-TX Upper quartile: $587,000 and up 308 Smoke Signal DR, Liberty Hill TX 78642 · MLS #3847744 Listed at $619,900, 4 bed, 4.5 bath, 3,612 sq ft. Listed 5% below the ALEX valuation; 5% under the local price per sq ft; price reduced 14% from original. See it on alex.realestate: https://www.alex.realestate/listing-detail/1185350176/308-Smoke-Signal-DR-Liberty-Hill-TX

Key figures · Lariat · rolling 6 months ending Oct 31, 2026

111 homes sold in Lariat in the 6 months ending Oct 31, 2026 (up 42.3% on a year earlier).

Median sale price: $460,350 (down 4.2% on a year earlier).

Median price per square foot: $185.

Median days on market: 70.

Median sale price as a share of the original list price: 91.7%.

99 homes for sale now, about 5.3 months of supply at the pace of the last six months.

Source: Unlock MLS, rolling 6 months ending Oct 31, 2026. Homes only (single-family, condo, townhome). Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed.

What does it take to buy an entry-level home in Lariat right now? The bottom quartile of closed sales in the last six months shows a median price of $360,262. This figure represents the most affordable tier available in this master-planned community, where 111 homes sold between May and October 2026. ALEX Intelligence calculated affordability using the median entry-level price of $360,262 against current market conditions. With a 20% down payment and a 30-year fixed mortgage rate of 7.24% (sourced from Freddie Mac for the week of October 29, 2026), the principal and interest payment for an entry-level buyer is $2,510 per month. This calculation assumes standard financing terms and does not include taxes or insurance. The data reveals a distinct shift in pricing dynamics compared to last year. While the median price for all homes in Lariat dropped 4.2% year-over-year, the entry-level segment remains a key indicator of market accessibility. The current rate environment means that buyers entering at this price point face higher monthly costs than they would have a year ago, even as home prices have softened slightly. This analysis focuses strictly on the bottom quartile of sales activity. It highlights the specific financial threshold for new residents in Lariat without projecting future price movements or suggesting investment advice. The figures are based on actual closed transactions and current mortgage rates available to qualified borrowers. Want a closer look? Reply or call George at 713.918.9951 and we'll set up a showing. Data from Unlock MLS. Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Model outputs are ALEX Intelligence estimates, not appraisals. Read more Central Texas market data on the ALEX blog: https://alex-companies.com/blog

George Arnold Alexander III, MPA

MIT, Nvidia, Google, AWS & IBM-Trained. Cross-Domain Expert. Castor Venture Club.

Partner, ALEX Companies

Associate Broker, Alexander Tiffany Southwest, LLC dba ALEX.realestate, et al.

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