| George Arnold Alexander III, MPA |
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Lariat Entry-Level Homes: Affordability Check for October
By George Arnold Alexander III, MPA · Associate Broker · 2026-10-31
Deal of the Week

Deals of the Week by price quartile. The quartiles come from the last 12 months of closed sales here. Each pick has the top ALEX deal score in its price range.
Lower quartile: under $390,000
437 Carr DR, Liberty Hill TX 78642 · MLS #1951656
Listed at $289,715, 3 bed, 2.5 bath, 1,801 sq ft. Listed 16% below the ALEX valuation; 11% under the local price per sq ft; price reduced 23% from original.
See it on alex.realestate: https://www.alex.realestate/listing-detail/1188566749/437-Carr-DR-Liberty-Hill-TX
Lower-middle quartile: $390,000 to $462,000
101 Gary Wayne DR, Liberty Hill TX 78642 · MLS #2954475
Listed at $425,000, 4 bed, 3 bath, 2,954 sq ft. Listed 8% below the ALEX valuation; 27% under the local price per sq ft; price reduced 8% from original.
See it on alex.realestate: https://www.alex.realestate/listing-detail/1185612506/101-Gary-Wayne-DR-Liberty-Hill-TX
Upper-middle quartile: $462,000 to $587,000
109 Statue DR, Liberty Hill TX 78642 · MLS #4859673
Listed at $569,900, 4 bed, 3 bath, 3,252 sq ft. Listed 5% below the ALEX valuation; price reduced 16% from original.
See it on alex.realestate: https://www.alex.realestate/listing-detail/1179707346/109-Statue-DR-Liberty-Hill-TX
Upper quartile: $587,000 and up
308 Smoke Signal DR, Liberty Hill TX 78642 · MLS #3847744
Listed at $619,900, 4 bed, 4.5 bath, 3,612 sq ft. Listed 5% below the ALEX valuation; 5% under the local price per sq ft; price reduced 14% from original.
See it on alex.realestate: https://www.alex.realestate/listing-detail/1185350176/308-Smoke-Signal-DR-Liberty-Hill-TX
Key figures · Lariat · rolling 6 months ending Sep 30, 2026
- 122 homes sold in Lariat in the 6 months ending Sep 30, 2026 (up 58.4% on a year earlier).
- Median sale price: $457,594 (up 1.7% on a year earlier).
- Median price per square foot: $185.
- Median days on market: 64.
- Median sale price as a share of the original list price: 92.2%.
- 99 homes for sale now, about 4.8 months of supply at the pace of the last six months.
Source: Unlock MLS, rolling 6 months ending Sep 30, 2026. Homes only (single-family, condo, townhome). Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed.
What does it cost to buy an entry-level home in Lariat today? The bottom quartile of closed sales in the rolling six-month window shows a median price of $361,990 across 15 transactions. This figure represents the most affordable tier available in the community during this period.
ALEX Intelligence applied a payment-to-price affordability model using the current market rate of 7.24% from the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey dated October 29, 2026. Assuming a standard 20% down payment on the median entry-level price, the principal and interest payment is estimated at $2,495 per month. This calculation includes only the mortgage cost and does not account for taxes or insurance.
The data also highlights the role of financing incentives in this market segment. A 3-2-1 buydown would reduce the initial rate to 4.24% for the first year, lowering the monthly payment by $696 compared to the standard rate, at a total cost of $16,980. Alternatively, a 2-1 buydown offers a one-year reduction to 5.24% for $8,628. These tools can significantly impact monthly cash flow for buyers in the entry-level bracket.
While the median price for all closed sales in Lariat sits at $457,594, the entry-level segment remains distinct. The current market shows a median of 15 closed sales in this lower price tier over the last six months, providing a baseline for what buyers can expect to pay for an affordable home in this master-planned community.
Want a closer look? Reply or call George at 713.918.9951 and we'll set up a showing.
Data from Unlock MLS. Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Model outputs are ALEX Intelligence estimates, not appraisals.
Read more Central Texas market data on the ALEX blog: https://alex-companies.com/blog
Source data: Unlock MLS closed sales, rolling 6 months ending Sep 30, 2026, n=122
Licensed by the Texas Real Estate Commission. Broker: Alexander Tiffany Southwest, LLC · License #565194-BB.
Diane Hart Alexander, Chair & CEO, ALEX Companies · Designated Broker · #574877-B · George Arnold Alexander III, Partner, ALEX Companies · Associate Broker · #574878-B
Texas Real Estate Commission Information About Brokerage Services · TREC Consumer Protection Notice · trec.texas.gov
Diane Hart Alexander, Chair & CEO, ALEX Companies · Designated Broker · #574877-B · George Arnold Alexander III, Partner, ALEX Companies · Associate Broker · #574878-B
Texas Real Estate Commission Information About Brokerage Services · TREC Consumer Protection Notice · trec.texas.gov










