Florence Market Heat Score: Inventory Rises as Prices Hold

Deal of the Week

100 W Caskey ST, Florence TX 76527
Deals of the Week by price quartile. The quartiles come from the last 12 months of closed sales here. Each pick has the top ALEX deal score in its price range. Lower quartile: under $309,000 100 W Caskey ST, Florence TX 76527 · MLS #7729807 Listed at $249,999, 3 bed, 2 bath, 1,626 sq ft. Listed 4% below the ALEX valuation; 44% under the local price per sq ft; price reduced 9% from original. See it on alex.realestate: https://www.alex.realestate/listing-detail/1184760140/100-W-Caskey-ST-Florence-TX Lower-middle quartile: $309,000 to $812,000 204 Three Rivers RD, Florence TX 78633 · MLS #7776694 Listed at $799,545, 4 bed, 3.5 bath, 3,658 sq ft. Listed 4% below the ALEX valuation; 20% under the local price per sq ft; price reduced 10% from original. See it on alex.realestate: https://www.alex.realestate/listing-detail/1188350152/204-Three-Rivers-RD-Florence-TX Upper-middle quartile: $812,000 to $995,000 1412 Paxton LN, Florence TX 78633 · MLS #7393415 Listed at $849,990, 5 bed, 4.5 bath, 4,456 sq ft. Listed 8% below the ALEX valuation; 30% under the local price per sq ft; price reduced 14% from original. See it on alex.realestate: https://www.alex.realestate/listing-detail/1179050074/1412-Paxton-LN-Florence-TX Upper quartile: $995,000 and up 1301 County Road 228, Florence TX 76527 · MLS #3595326 Listed at $1,379,900, 7 bed, 5.5 bath, 4,629 sq ft. Listed 14% below the ALEX valuation; price reduced 29% from original. See it on alex.realestate: https://www.alex.realestate/listing-detail/1187498061/1301-County-Road-228-Florence-TX

Key figures · Florence · rolling 12 months ending Oct 31, 2026

Source: Unlock MLS, rolling 12 months ending Oct 31, 2026. Single-family homes; prices net of seller-paid concessions, the same figures as the ALEX market statistics pages. Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed.

Market figures by town

Florence is showing signs of a shifting balance between buyers and sellers as the market moves away from its previous pace. In the rolling 12 months ending October 31, 2026, median days on market rose to 65 days, up 25% compared to the prior period. This increase in time on market suggests homes are taking longer to sell, a key indicator of cooling demand or increased supply relative to buyer activity. Despite the slower pace, prices have held firm and even improved slightly. The median close price reached $805,000, representing a 5.9% increase over the same window last year. However, the price per square foot dipped 7.3% to $266.54, indicating that while total values remain high, the value per unit of space has softened. A larger share of homes sold below their original list price this period, with 73.7% closing under asking compared to 82.4% previously, showing a slight improvement in negotiation leverage for sellers. Current inventory stands at 23 active listings, resulting in 5.75 months of supply. This level suggests a market that is neither aggressively favoring buyers nor sellers, but rather leaning toward a balanced state where time on market is the primary differentiator. ALEX Intelligence estimates this composite heat score based on these observed metrics: days on market, sale-to-list ratio, inventory levels, and price reduction trends. The data reflects a market where affordability remains a factor given the 7.18% mortgage rate, yet demand continues to support median prices above $805,000 for single-family homes. Want a closer look? Reply or call George at 713.918.9951 and we'll set up a showing. Data from Unlock MLS. Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Model outputs are ALEX Intelligence estimates, not appraisals. Read more Central Texas market data on the ALEX blog: https://alex-companies.com/blog
George Arnold Alexander III, MPA
Partner, ALEX Companies
Associate Broker, Alexander Tiffany Southwest, LLC
Licensed Broker in TX, CO, NC, AL
[email protected] · +1 713.918.9951
TREC Information About Brokerage Services · TREC Consumer Protection Notice
Source data: Unlock MLS closed sales, rolling 12 months ending Oct 31, 2026, n=38
Cover photo: Florence Texas Main Street 2018 by Larry D. Moore, CC BY 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons; darkened, cropped and text added.
View this home on alex.realestateDownload the PDFDownload the videoSchedule a showing
Slide 1Slide 2Slide 3Slide 4Slide 5Slide 6Slide 7Slide 8Slide 9Slide 10
Licensed by the Texas Real Estate Commission. Broker: Alexander Tiffany Southwest, LLC · License #565194-BB.
Diane Hart Alexander, Chair & CEO, ALEX Companies · Designated Broker · #574877-B  ·  George Arnold Alexander III, Partner, ALEX Companies · Associate Broker · #574878-B
Texas Real Estate Commission Information About Brokerage Services · TREC Consumer Protection Notice · trec.texas.gov