San Marcos Market Heat Score: What the Data Says in October

Is the San Marcos market cooling or simply stabilizing? The latest ALEX Intelligence Market Heat Score for San Marcos reflects a balance between rising prices and slowing sales velocity. This composite index weighs four key factors: median days on market, sale-to-list price ratio, inventory levels, and the frequency of price cuts. In September 2026, the median closed price reached $335,000 across 51 transactions, a 7.2% increase from the prior month and essentially flat compared to last year. However, homes took longer to sell, with the median days on market rising to 75 days, up 17.2% from August. The share of homes selling below original list price climbed slightly to 92.2%, while the average sale-to-list ratio dipped to 90.4%. Inventory remains a defining factor, with 391 active listings creating a 5.89-month supply. This level suggests a market that is neither aggressively favoring buyers nor sellers, but rather leaning toward a balanced state where negotiation power is shifting. The heat score calculation assigns equal weight to the four components: days on market (slower sales lower the score), sale ratio (lower ratios lower the score), inventory (higher months of supply lowers the score), and price reductions (higher reduction rates lower the score). While prices are up, the extended time on market and high inventory keep the overall heat score in the mid-range. For buyers, this indicates room for negotiation; for sellers, it suggests that pricing must be precise to compete with the 391 homes currently available. The data reflects a market adjusting to higher interest rates and increased supply rather than a sudden shift in demand. Want to see this home? Call or text George at 713.918.9951 for a private showing. Data from Unlock MLS. Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Model outputs are ALEX Intelligence estimates, not appraisals. Read more Central Texas market data on the ALEX blog: https://alex-companies.com/blog