| George Arnold Alexander III, MPA |
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Caldwell County vs. Neighbors: A Price and Speed Gap
By George Arnold Alexander III, MPA · Associate Broker · 2026-11-03
Deal of the Week

Deals of the Week by price quartile. The quartiles come from the last 12 months of closed sales here. Each pick has the top ALEX deal score in its price range.
Lower quartile: under $216,000
454 Dubai Ave, Maxwell TX 78656 · MLS #6280807
Listed at $214,999, 4 bed, 2 bath, 1,575 sq ft. Listed 12% below the ALEX valuation; price reduced 13% from original.
See it on alex.realestate: https://www.alex.realestate/listing-detail/1189456380/454-Dubai-Ave-Maxwell-TX
Lower-middle quartile: $216,000 to $243,000
304 Wild Goose DR, Luling TX 78648 · MLS #2351478
Listed at $238,500, 4 bed, 2 bath, 1,572 sq ft. Listed 5% below the ALEX valuation; price reduced 6% from original.
See it on alex.realestate: https://www.alex.realestate/listing-detail/1179453404/304-Wild-Goose-DR-Luling-TX
Upper-middle quartile: $243,000 to $350,000
2203 LIONHEART DR, Luling TX 78648 · MLS #8625433
Listed at $247,500, 5 bed, 2.5 bath, 1,892 sq ft. Listed 5% below the ALEX valuation; 15% under the local price per sq ft; price reduced 7% from original.
See it on alex.realestate: https://www.alex.realestate/listing-detail/1178281973/2203-LIONHEART-DR-Luling-TX
Upper quartile: $350,000 and up
100 Little El Paso RD, Martindale TX 78655 · MLS #6747369
Listed at $799,500, 4 bed, 5 bath, 3,850 sq ft. Listed 4% below the ALEX valuation; 20% under the local price per sq ft; price reduced 9% from original.
See it on alex.realestate: https://www.alex.realestate/listing-detail/1182522602/100-Little-El-Paso-RD-Martindale-TX
Key figures · Caldwell County · October 2026
- 41 homes sold in Caldwell County in October 2026 (up 115.8% on a year earlier).
- Median sale price: $272,000 (up 4.6% on a year earlier).
- Median price per square foot: $162.
- Median days on market: 68.
- Median sale price as a share of the original list price: 91.7%.
- 245 homes for sale now, about 6.2 months of supply at the pace of the last six months.
Source: Unlock MLS, October 2026. Homes only (single-family, condo, townhome). Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed.
Caldwell County's median home price reached $272,000 in October, marking a 4.6% increase from the same month last year across 41 closed sales. While prices are climbing, the market is moving significantly slower than it did twelve months ago. The median days on market stretched to 68 days, an 83.8% jump compared to the prior year's 37 days.
When compared to the broader Unlock MLS region, Caldwell County lags in price but trails further in speed. The regional median price stands at $409,450 with a median of 57 days on market. In contrast, Caldwell homes sell for less than the regional average and take about 11 days longer to close. The region also commands a higher price per square foot at $207, compared to $162 in Caldwell.
Affordability metrics show mixed signals. The median close-to-original list ratio dropped to 91.7%, with 90.2% of homes selling below their original asking price. This suggests buyers have more leverage now than last year, when that figure was 94%. New construction remains a steady segment, accounting for 20 of the 41 closed sales in October.
ALEX Intelligence analyzed these regional benchmarks to highlight how Caldwell County's slower pace and lower entry prices distinguish it from the wider market. The data indicates a shift toward buyer-friendly conditions, even as inventory tightens slightly with 6.15 months of supply on hand.
Current mortgage rates sit at 7.24% according to Freddie Mac data for the week of October 29, 2026. This rate environment continues to influence how quickly homes move and what buyers can afford in this specific market segment.
Want a closer look? Reply or call George at 713.918.9951 and we'll set up a showing.
Data from Unlock MLS. Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Model outputs are ALEX Intelligence estimates, not appraisals.
Read more Central Texas market data on the ALEX blog: https://alex-companies.com/blog
Source data: Unlock MLS closed sales, October 2026, n=41
Cover photo: Lockhart State Park, Caldwell County by Larry D. Moore, CC BY 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons; darkened, cropped and text added.
Licensed by the Texas Real Estate Commission. Broker: Alexander Tiffany Southwest, LLC · License #565194-BB.
Diane Hart Alexander, Chair & CEO, ALEX Companies · Designated Broker · #574877-B · George Arnold Alexander III, Partner, ALEX Companies · Associate Broker · #574878-B
Texas Real Estate Commission Information About Brokerage Services · TREC Consumer Protection Notice · trec.texas.gov
Diane Hart Alexander, Chair & CEO, ALEX Companies · Designated Broker · #574877-B · George Arnold Alexander III, Partner, ALEX Companies · Associate Broker · #574878-B
Texas Real Estate Commission Information About Brokerage Services · TREC Consumer Protection Notice · trec.texas.gov










