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Caldwell County Entry-Level Homes: Can Buyers Afford?
By George Arnold Alexander III, MPA · Associate Broker · 2026-10-31
Deal of the Week

Deals of the Week by price quartile. The quartiles come from the last 12 months of closed sales here. Each pick has the top ALEX deal score in its price range.
Lower quartile: under $215,000
16 Church ST, Maxwell TX 78656 · MLS #5063210
Listed at $139,900, 3 bed, 1 bath, 1,484 sq ft. Listed 6% below the ALEX valuation; 34% under the local price per sq ft; price reduced 7% from original.
See it on alex.realestate: https://www.alex.realestate/listing-detail/1188728734/16-Church-ST-Maxwell-TX
Lower-middle quartile: $215,000 to $242,000
443 Dubai Ave, Maxwell TX 78656 · MLS #8966510
Listed at $241,999, 4 bed, 2 bath, 2,173 sq ft. Listed 7% below the ALEX valuation; 18% under the local price per sq ft; price reduced 4% from original.
See it on alex.realestate: https://www.alex.realestate/listing-detail/1187581112/443-Dubai-Ave-Maxwell-TX
Upper-middle quartile: $242,000 to $340,000
2117 Windflower LN, Luling TX 78648 · MLS #7349628
Listed at $264,499, 5 bed, 2.5 bath, 2,118 sq ft. Listed 10% below the ALEX valuation; 19% under the local price per sq ft; price reduced 4% from original.
See it on alex.realestate: https://www.alex.realestate/listing-detail/1184572978/2117-Windflower-LN-Luling-TX
Upper quartile: $340,000 and up
3913 Wishing Well DR, Lockhart TX 78644 · MLS #7829643
Listed at $399,900, 4 bed, 3.5 bath, 2,725 sq ft. Listed 6% below the ALEX valuation; 19% under the local price per sq ft; price reduced 11% from original.
See it on alex.realestate: https://www.alex.realestate/listing-detail/1189618017/3913-Wishing-Well-DR-Lockhart-TX
Key figures · Caldwell County · September 2026
- 33 homes sold in Caldwell County in September 2026 (down 13.2% on a year earlier).
- Median sale price: $269,490 (down 12.2% on a year earlier).
- Median price per square foot: $152.
- Median days on market: 49.
- Median sale price as a share of the original list price: 92.6%.
- 249 homes for sale now, about 6.0 months of supply at the pace of the last six months.
Source: Unlock MLS, September 2026. Homes only (single-family, condo, townhome). Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed.
Can buyers afford the median home in Caldwell County today? With the median closing price at $269,490 across 33 closed sales in September and a mortgage rate of 7.24%, monthly payments for entry-level homes require careful budgeting.
ALEX Intelligence analyzed the bottom quartile of recent sales to determine affordability for first-time buyers. At this price point with a loan amount of $215,592, the principal and interest on a 30-year fixed loan at 7.24% totals $1,469 per month. Buyers can reduce this burden using buydowns; a standard 3-2-1 buydown costs approximately $9,996 upfront to lower the rate in year one, while a 2-1 buydown costs about $5,076 to reach a lower initial rate.
The market shows that 33 homes closed last month, with the median living area at 1,840 square feet. While prices rose 2.3% from August, they remain 12.2% lower than September 2025. This shift suggests that while entry-level inventory is available, the cost of borrowing remains a significant factor for buyers in this price tier.
The data reflects a market where affordability hinges on financing strategies and down payment size rather than just listing prices.
Want a closer look? Reply or call George at 713.918.9951 and we'll set up a showing.
Data from Unlock MLS. Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Model outputs are ALEX Intelligence estimates, not appraisals.
Read more Central Texas market data on the ALEX blog: https://alex-companies.com/blog
Source data: Unlock MLS closed sales, September 2026, n=33
Cover photo: Lockhart State Park, Caldwell County by Larry D. Moore, CC BY 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons; darkened, cropped and text added.
Licensed by the Texas Real Estate Commission. Broker: Alexander Tiffany Southwest, LLC · License #565194-BB.
Diane Hart Alexander, Chair & CEO, ALEX Companies · Designated Broker · #574877-B · George Arnold Alexander III, Partner, ALEX Companies · Associate Broker · #574878-B
Texas Real Estate Commission Information About Brokerage Services · TREC Consumer Protection Notice · trec.texas.gov
Diane Hart Alexander, Chair & CEO, ALEX Companies · Designated Broker · #574877-B · George Arnold Alexander III, Partner, ALEX Companies · Associate Broker · #574878-B
Texas Real Estate Commission Information About Brokerage Services · TREC Consumer Protection Notice · trec.texas.gov










