Caldwell County Entry-Level Homes: Can Buyers Afford?

Deal of the Week

16 Church ST, Maxwell TX 78656
Deals of the Week by price quartile. The quartiles come from the last 12 months of closed sales here. Each pick has the top ALEX deal score in its price range. Lower quartile: under $215,000 16 Church ST, Maxwell TX 78656 · MLS #5063210 Listed at $139,900, 3 bed, 1 bath, 1,484 sq ft. Listed 6% below the ALEX valuation; 34% under the local price per sq ft; price reduced 7% from original. See it on alex.realestate: https://www.alex.realestate/listing-detail/1188728734/16-Church-ST-Maxwell-TX Lower-middle quartile: $215,000 to $242,000 443 Dubai Ave, Maxwell TX 78656 · MLS #8966510 Listed at $241,999, 4 bed, 2 bath, 2,173 sq ft. Listed 7% below the ALEX valuation; 18% under the local price per sq ft; price reduced 4% from original. See it on alex.realestate: https://www.alex.realestate/listing-detail/1187581112/443-Dubai-Ave-Maxwell-TX Upper-middle quartile: $242,000 to $340,000 2117 Windflower LN, Luling TX 78648 · MLS #7349628 Listed at $264,499, 5 bed, 2.5 bath, 2,118 sq ft. Listed 10% below the ALEX valuation; 19% under the local price per sq ft; price reduced 4% from original. See it on alex.realestate: https://www.alex.realestate/listing-detail/1184572978/2117-Windflower-LN-Luling-TX Upper quartile: $340,000 and up 3913 Wishing Well DR, Lockhart TX 78644 · MLS #7829643 Listed at $399,900, 4 bed, 3.5 bath, 2,725 sq ft. Listed 6% below the ALEX valuation; 19% under the local price per sq ft; price reduced 11% from original. See it on alex.realestate: https://www.alex.realestate/listing-detail/1189618017/3913-Wishing-Well-DR-Lockhart-TX

Key figures · Caldwell County · September 2026

Source: Unlock MLS, September 2026. Homes only (single-family, condo, townhome). Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed.

Market figures by town

Can buyers afford the median home in Caldwell County today? With the median closing price at $269,490 across 33 closed sales in September and a mortgage rate of 7.24%, monthly payments for entry-level homes require careful budgeting. ALEX Intelligence analyzed the bottom quartile of recent sales to determine affordability for first-time buyers. At this price point with a loan amount of $215,592, the principal and interest on a 30-year fixed loan at 7.24% totals $1,469 per month. Buyers can reduce this burden using buydowns; a standard 3-2-1 buydown costs approximately $9,996 upfront to lower the rate in year one, while a 2-1 buydown costs about $5,076 to reach a lower initial rate. The market shows that 33 homes closed last month, with the median living area at 1,840 square feet. While prices rose 2.3% from August, they remain 12.2% lower than September 2025. This shift suggests that while entry-level inventory is available, the cost of borrowing remains a significant factor for buyers in this price tier. The data reflects a market where affordability hinges on financing strategies and down payment size rather than just listing prices. Want a closer look? Reply or call George at 713.918.9951 and we'll set up a showing. Data from Unlock MLS. Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Model outputs are ALEX Intelligence estimates, not appraisals. Read more Central Texas market data on the ALEX blog: https://alex-companies.com/blog
George Arnold Alexander III, MPA
MIT, Nvidia, Google, AWS & IBM-Trained. Cross-Domain Expert. Castor Venture Club.
Partner, ALEX Companies
Associate Broker, Alexander Tiffany Southwest, LLC dba ALEX.realestate, et al.
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Source data: Unlock MLS closed sales, September 2026, n=33
Cover photo: Lockhart State Park, Caldwell County by Larry D. Moore, CC BY 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons; darkened, cropped and text added.
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Licensed by the Texas Real Estate Commission. Broker: Alexander Tiffany Southwest, LLC · License #565194-BB.
Diane Hart Alexander, Chair & CEO, ALEX Companies · Designated Broker · #574877-B  ·  George Arnold Alexander III, Partner, ALEX Companies · Associate Broker · #574878-B
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