Lariat: New Listings vs. Closings Show Supply Gap

Deal of the Week

Deal of the Week · 437 Carr DR, Liberty Hill TX 78642 · MLS #1951656 · Listed by ERA Experts. ALEX valuation $346,000 is an ALEX Intelligence estimate, not an appraisal.

Deals of the Week by price quartile. The quartiles come from the last 12 months of closed sales here. Each pick has the top ALEX deal score in its price range. Lower quartile: under $390,000 437 Carr DR, Liberty Hill TX 78642 · MLS #1951656 Listed at $289,715, 3 bed, 2.5 bath, 1,801 sq ft. Listed 16% below the ALEX valuation; 11% under the local price per sq ft; price reduced 23% from original. See it on alex.realestate: https://www.alex.realestate/listing-detail/1188566749/437-Carr-DR-Liberty-Hill-TX Lower-middle quartile: $390,000 to $462,000 101 Gary Wayne DR, Liberty Hill TX 78642 · MLS #2954475 Listed at $425,000, 4 bed, 3 bath, 2,954 sq ft. Listed 8% below the ALEX valuation; 27% under the local price per sq ft; price reduced 8% from original. See it on alex.realestate: https://www.alex.realestate/listing-detail/1185612506/101-Gary-Wayne-DR-Liberty-Hill-TX Upper-middle quartile: $462,000 to $587,000 109 Statue DR, Liberty Hill TX 78642 · MLS #4859673 Listed at $569,900, 4 bed, 3 bath, 3,252 sq ft. Listed 5% below the ALEX valuation; price reduced 16% from original. See it on alex.realestate: https://www.alex.realestate/listing-detail/1179707346/109-Statue-DR-Liberty-Hill-TX Upper quartile: $587,000 and up 308 Smoke Signal DR, Liberty Hill TX 78642 · MLS #3847744 Listed at $619,900, 4 bed, 4.5 bath, 3,612 sq ft. Listed 5% below the ALEX valuation; 5% under the local price per sq ft; price reduced 14% from original. See it on alex.realestate: https://www.alex.realestate/listing-detail/1185350176/308-Smoke-Signal-DR-Liberty-Hill-TX

Key figures · Lariat · rolling 6 months ending Sep 30, 2026

121 homes sold in Lariat in the 6 months ending Sep 30, 2026 (up 57.1% on a year earlier).

Median sale price: $460,350 (up 2.3% on a year earlier).

Median price per square foot: $184.

Median days on market: 64.

Median sale price as a share of the original list price: 92.2%.

94 homes for sale now, about 4.6 months of supply at the pace of the last six months.

Source: Unlock MLS, rolling 6 months ending Sep 30, 2026. Homes only (single-family, condo, townhome). Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed.

In the rolling six months ending September 30, 2026, new listings in Lariat fell to 113 while closings rose to 121. This imbalance signals a tightening supply gap where demand outpaces fresh inventory. ALEX Intelligence analyzed the dual-axis trend of new supply versus closed sales to quantify this dynamic. Over the prior six-month window, sellers brought 122 homes to market, but only 113 were added in the current period. Meanwhile, closed transactions increased from 98 to 121 compared to the prior period. The data shows that while new construction remains robust with 119 closings, the rate of fresh listings has not kept pace with buyer activity. This shift suggests that homes are moving faster than they are being replaced on the market. For buyers, this means competition may intensify as inventory levels drop relative to sales volume. The sample size for closed sales stands at 121 transactions, providing a stable view of the current supply-demand balance in this master-planned community. Want a closer look? Reply or call George at 713.918.9951 and we'll set up a showing. Data from Unlock MLS. Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Model outputs are ALEX Intelligence estimates, not appraisals. Read more Central Texas market data on the ALEX blog: https://alex-companies.com/blog

George Arnold Alexander III, MPA

MIT, Nvidia, Google, AWS & IBM-Trained. Cross-Domain Expert. Castor Venture Club.

Partner, ALEX Companies

Associate Broker, Alexander Tiffany Southwest, LLC dba ALEX.realestate, et al.

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