| George Arnold Alexander III, MPA |
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Palmera Ridge Market Heat Score: A Deep Dive into October 2026
By George Arnold Alexander III, MPA · Associate Broker · 2026-10-20
Deal of the Week

Deals of the Week by price quartile. The quartiles come from the last 12 months of closed sales here. Each pick has the top ALEX deal score in its price range.
Lower quartile: under $630,000
2208 Bonavista WAY, Leander TX 78641 · MLS #7911467
Listed at $550,000, 4 bed, 3.5 bath, 2,787 sq ft. The top-scoring home for sale here this week on price per sq ft, price changes and time on market; 12% under the local price per sq ft; price reduced 2% from original.
See it on alex.realestate: https://www.alex.realestate/listing-detail/1186895580/2208-Bonavista-WAY-Leander-TX
Lower-middle quartile: $630,000 to $770,000
2520 Carretera DR, Leander TX 78641 · MLS #3063804
Listed at $724,990, 4 bed, 3 bath, 3,381 sq ft. Listed 11% below the ALEX valuation; 4% under the local price per sq ft; price reduced 17% from original.
See it on alex.realestate: https://www.alex.realestate/listing-detail/1171672331/2520-Carretera-DR-Leander-TX
Upper-middle quartile: $770,000 to $875,000
1404 Jolie Rose BND, Leander TX 78641 · MLS #1876277
Listed at $824,900, 4 bed, 4.5 bath, 3,435 sq ft. The top-scoring home for sale here this week on price per sq ft, price changes and time on market; price reduced 13% from original.
See it on alex.realestate: https://www.alex.realestate/listing-detail/1185353844/1404-Jolie-Rose-BND-Leander-TX
Upper quartile: $875,000 and up
1332 Jolie Rose BND, Leander TX 78641 · MLS #6797194
Listed at $969,900, 5 bed, 6 bath, 4,347 sq ft. Listed 6% below the ALEX valuation; price reduced 19% from original.
See it on alex.realestate: https://www.alex.realestate/listing-detail/1182520184/1332-Jolie-Rose-BND-Leander-TX
Key figures · Palmera Ridge · rolling 6 months ending Sep 30, 2026
- 32 homes sold in Palmera Ridge in the 6 months ending Sep 30, 2026 (up 100.0% on a year earlier).
- Median sale price: $755,000 (up 30.2% on a year earlier).
- Median price per square foot: $218.
- Median days on market: 197.
- Median sale price as a share of the original list price: 88.8%.
- 32 homes for sale now, about 5.8 months of supply at the pace of the last six months.
Source: Unlock MLS, rolling 6 months ending Sep 30, 2026. Homes only (single-family, condo, townhome). Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed.
What does a median of 197 days on market mean for a home in Palmera Ridge today? The answer lies in the ALEX Intelligence Market Heat Score, a composite index that blends speed, price ratio, and inventory levels to gauge current conditions. For this community, the score reflects a distinct shift from the frenetic pace seen just two years ago, driven by a 462.9% increase in days on market compared to the same period last year.
The heat score calculation weighs four key factors: median days on market, the close-to-original list price ratio, months of inventory, and the share of listings with price cuts. In Palmera Ridge, the most dramatic change is in speed. While homes sold in 35 days during the same period last year, the current rolling six-month average sits at 197 days. This slowdown has pushed the market toward a balanced or slightly buyer-favorable stance, with 5.82 months of inventory on hand.
Price dynamics tell a different story. Despite the slower pace, median closing prices have risen 30.2% compared to last year, reaching $755,000. However, sellers are accepting less than their original asking price more often now; 96.9% of homes sold below list, and the average close-to-original ratio dropped to 88.8%. The ALEX Intelligence model indicates that while demand remains strong enough to push prices up, the urgency to sell has evaporated, giving buyers significantly more leverage in negotiations than they held in late 2024.
This composite view reveals a market in transition: prices are higher, but the speed of transactions has slowed dramatically, creating a complex environment where patience is now a primary asset for both buyers and sellers.
Want to see this home? Call or text George at 713.918.9951 for a private showing.
Data from Unlock MLS. Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Model outputs are ALEX Intelligence estimates, not appraisals.
Read more Central Texas market data on the ALEX blog: https://alex-companies.com/blog
Source data: Unlock MLS, rolling 6 months ending Sep 30, 2026, n=32 closed sales
Licensed by the Texas Real Estate Commission. Broker: Alexander Tiffany Southwest, LLC · License #565194-BB.
Diane Hart Alexander, Chair & CEO, ALEX Companies · Designated Broker · #574877-B · George Arnold Alexander III, Partner, ALEX Companies · Associate Broker · #574878-B
Texas Real Estate Commission Information About Brokerage Services · TREC Consumer Protection Notice · trec.texas.gov
Diane Hart Alexander, Chair & CEO, ALEX Companies · Designated Broker · #574877-B · George Arnold Alexander III, Partner, ALEX Companies · Associate Broker · #574878-B
Texas Real Estate Commission Information About Brokerage Services · TREC Consumer Protection Notice · trec.texas.gov










