| George Arnold Alexander III, MPA |
| Partner, ALEX Companies |
| Associate Broker, Alexander Tiffany Southwest, LLC |
| Licensed Broker in TX, CO, NC, AL |
| [email protected] · +1 713.918.9951 |
| TREC Information About Brokerage Services · TREC Consumer Protection Notice |
Sonterra Market Heat Score: What the Data Says
By George Arnold Alexander III, MPA · Associate Broker · 2026-11-06
Deal of the Week

Deals of the Week by price quartile. The quartiles come from the last 12 months of closed sales here. Each pick has the top ALEX deal score in its price range.
Lower quartile: under $225,000
105 Quartz DR, Jarrell TX 76537 · MLS #3345692
Listed at $199,900, 3 bed, 2 bath, 1,743 sq ft. Listed 11% below the ALEX valuation; 23% under the local price per sq ft; price reduced 11% from original.
See it on alex.realestate: https://www.alex.realestate/listing-detail/1186053691/105-Quartz-DR-Jarrell-TX
Lower-middle quartile: $225,000 to $260,000
509 Callisto CT, Jarrell TX 76537 · MLS #4139905
Listed at $225,000, 3 bed, 2 bath, 1,402 sq ft. Listed 4% below the ALEX valuation; price reduced 6% from original.
See it on alex.realestate: https://www.alex.realestate/listing-detail/1182793571/509-Callisto-CT-Jarrell-TX
Upper-middle quartile: $260,000 to $286,000
213 Ammonite LN, Jarrell TX 76537 · MLS #7254672
Listed at $284,000, 4 bed, 2.5 bath, 2,361 sq ft. Listed 5% below the ALEX valuation; 14% under the local price per sq ft; price reduced 8% from original.
See it on alex.realestate: https://www.alex.realestate/listing-detail/1182516749/213-Ammonite-LN-Jarrell-TX
Upper quartile: $286,000 and up
105 Quiet Man DR, Jarrell TX 76537 · MLS #2321400
Listed at $290,400, 4 bed, 3 bath, 2,358 sq ft. Listed 2% below the ALEX valuation; 25% under the local price per sq ft; price reduced 5% from original.
See it on alex.realestate: https://www.alex.realestate/listing-detail/1186491932/105-Quiet-Man-DR-Jarrell-TX
Key figures · Sonterra · rolling 6 months ending Oct 31, 2026
- 120 homes sold in Sonterra in the 6 months ending Oct 31, 2026 (up 3.4% on a year earlier).
- Median sale price: $250,000 (down 5.7% on a year earlier).
- Median price per square foot: $141.
- Median days on market: 71.
- Median sale price as a share of the original list price: 92.7%.
- 101 homes for sale now, about 5.0 months of supply at the pace of the last six months.
Source: Unlock MLS, rolling 6 months ending Oct 31, 2026. Homes only (single-family, condo, townhome). Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed.
Is the Sonterra market cooling or just shifting? ALEX Intelligence calculated a Market Heat Score for the community based on the rolling six months ending October 31, 2026. This composite index blends four key indicators: median days on market, sale-to-list price ratio, inventory levels, and the frequency of price reductions.
The score reflects a distinct shift from the previous period. Median days on market rose to 71 days, up 31.5% compared to the same window last year, while the median close-to-original list ratio dipped slightly to 92.7%. Inventory has accumulated to 5.05 months of supply, indicating a move toward buyer leverage. Additionally, 86.7% of closed sales sold below their original list price, a figure that has risen 3.7 percentage points year-over-year.
These figures suggest the market is currently balanced but leaning slightly toward buyers, as homes are taking longer to sell and prices are adjusting downward relative to asking amounts. The data covers 120 closed sales with a median price of $250,000. While activity remains steady, the combination of extended selling times and increased negotiation room defines the current market conditions in Sonterra.
ALEX Intelligence estimate, not an appraisal.
Want to see this home? Call or text George at 713.918.9951 for a private showing.
Data from Unlock MLS. Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Model outputs are ALEX Intelligence estimates, not appraisals.
Read more Central Texas market data on the ALEX blog: https://alex-companies.com/blog
Source data: Unlock MLS closed sales and listing activity, rolling 6 months ending Oct 31, 2026, n=120
Licensed by the Texas Real Estate Commission. Broker: Alexander Tiffany Southwest, LLC · License #565194-BB.
Diane Hart Alexander, Chair & CEO, ALEX Companies · Designated Broker · #574877-B · George Arnold Alexander III, Partner, ALEX Companies · Associate Broker · #574878-B
Texas Real Estate Commission Information About Brokerage Services · TREC Consumer Protection Notice · trec.texas.gov
Diane Hart Alexander, Chair & CEO, ALEX Companies · Designated Broker · #574877-B · George Arnold Alexander III, Partner, ALEX Companies · Associate Broker · #574878-B
Texas Real Estate Commission Information About Brokerage Services · TREC Consumer Protection Notice · trec.texas.gov










