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Sonterra: New Listings Outpace Closings in Rolling Six Months
By George Arnold Alexander III, MPA · Associate Broker · 2026-10-29
Deal of the Week

Deals of the Week by price quartile. The quartiles come from the last 12 months of closed sales here. Each pick has the top ALEX deal score in its price range.
Lower quartile: under $225,000
129 Flying Tigers TRL, Jarrell TX 76537 · MLS #3927256
Listed at $193,999, 4 bed, 2 bath, 1,582 sq ft. Listed 18% below the ALEX valuation; 17% under the local price per sq ft; price reduced 20% from original.
See it on alex.realestate: https://www.alex.realestate/listing-detail/1188534011/129-Flying-Tigers-TRL-Jarrell-TX
Lower-middle quartile: $225,000 to $260,000
201 Old Stagecoach RD, Jarrell TX 76537 · MLS #1512505
Listed at $238,999, 4 bed, 2 bath, 2,202 sq ft. Listed 5% below the ALEX valuation; 27% under the local price per sq ft; price reduced 7% from original.
See it on alex.realestate: https://www.alex.realestate/listing-detail/1190431903/201-Old-Stagecoach-RD-Jarrell-TX
Upper-middle quartile: $260,000 to $286,000
212 Druse LN, Jarrell TX 76537 · MLS #9090150
Listed at $269,900, 4 bed, 2 bath, 1,887 sq ft. Listed 6% below the ALEX valuation; 5% under the local price per sq ft; price reduced 10% from original.
See it on alex.realestate: https://www.alex.realestate/listing-detail/1176394955/212-Druse-LN-Jarrell-TX
Upper quartile: $286,000 and up
472 Josey Wales DR, Jarrell TX 76537 · MLS #6609843
Listed at $349,900, 4 bed, 3 bath, 2,427 sq ft. Listed 8% below the ALEX valuation; price reduced 16% from original.
See it on alex.realestate: https://www.alex.realestate/listing-detail/1176541279/472-Josey-Wales-DR-Jarrell-TX
Key figures · Sonterra · rolling 6 months ending Sep 30, 2026
- 123 homes sold in Sonterra in the 6 months ending Sep 30, 2026 (up 5.1% on a year earlier).
- Median sale price: $255,000 (down 5.4% on a year earlier).
- Median price per square foot: $143.
- Median days on market: 69.
- Median sale price as a share of the original list price: 92.8%.
- 95 homes for sale now, about 4.5 months of supply at the pace of the last six months.
Source: Unlock MLS, rolling 6 months ending Sep 30, 2026. Homes only (single-family, condo, townhome). Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed.
In the rolling six months ending September 30, 2026, Sonterra saw 134 new listings enter the market while only 123 homes closed. This gap between fresh supply and completed transactions defines the current balance of inventory. ALEX Intelligence analyzed the dual-axis trend of new listings versus closings to determine if buyers or sellers hold the advantage in this volume.
The data shows a slight surplus of active supply, as the number of new listings exceeded the number of closed sales by 11 properties over the six-month window. This pattern suggests that while demand remains steady with 123 transactions, the influx of 134 new homes is keeping inventory levels from tightening significantly. The median days on market for these sales was 69 days, indicating a moderate pace compared to the prior period's 76 days.
For sellers, this gap implies that while competition exists, the market is absorbing new inventory at a rate close to its arrival. For buyers, the steady stream of 134 new listings provides options without the intense scarcity seen in tighter markets. The median sale price for these 123 transactions settled at $255,000, reflecting a 2.1% decrease from the prior six-month period.
The supply gap remains a key indicator for Sonterra's trajectory. As long as new listings continue to match or slightly exceed closings, prices are likely to remain stable rather than surge. This dynamic offers a balanced environment where neither side has an overwhelming advantage in the short term.
Want a closer look? Reply or call George at 713.918.9951 and we'll set up a showing.
Data from Unlock MLS. Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Model outputs are ALEX Intelligence estimates, not appraisals.
Read more Central Texas market data on the ALEX blog: https://alex-companies.com/blog
Source data: Unlock MLS, rolling 6 months ending Sep 30, 2026, n=123 closed sales
Licensed by the Texas Real Estate Commission. Broker: Alexander Tiffany Southwest, LLC · License #565194-BB.
Diane Hart Alexander, Chair & CEO, ALEX Companies · Designated Broker · #574877-B · George Arnold Alexander III, Partner, ALEX Companies · Associate Broker · #574878-B
Texas Real Estate Commission Information About Brokerage Services · TREC Consumer Protection Notice · trec.texas.gov
Diane Hart Alexander, Chair & CEO, ALEX Companies · Designated Broker · #574877-B · George Arnold Alexander III, Partner, ALEX Companies · Associate Broker · #574878-B
Texas Real Estate Commission Information About Brokerage Services · TREC Consumer Protection Notice · trec.texas.gov










