Morningstar List-to-Sale Price Ratio Explained

In Morningstar, buyers paid an average of 95.4% of the original list price across 34 closed sales in the rolling six months ending September 30, 2026. This figure represents the median close-to-original-list ratio, a metric that tracks how closely final sale prices align with initial asking prices. A ratio below 1.0 indicates that homes sold for less than listed, while a ratio above 1.0 suggests bidding wars or over-asking offers. ALEX Intelligence analyzed this ratio alongside price and listing data to determine current negotiation dynamics. The median close-to-original-list ratio of 0.954 marks a 5.1% increase compared to the prior six-month period, where the ratio was 0.908. This shift suggests that sellers are retaining more of their asking price than they did earlier in the year, even as the median sale price dropped 4.9% to $342,500. The data also reveals that 88.2% of homes sold below their original list price during this window, a slight decrease from the 93.3% observed in the prior period. While prices per square foot fell 5.7% compared to the previous six months, the narrowing gap between list and sale prices indicates a market where initial pricing is becoming more accurate or where buyer competition for specific inventory has stabilized. This analysis relies on 34 closed sales, meeting the minimum sample size required for statistical reliability. The trend reflects a market adjusting to current conditions, with buyers securing homes at slightly higher percentages of the list price despite overall price declines. Want to see this home? Call or text George at 713.918.9951 for a private showing. Data from Unlock MLS. Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Model outputs are ALEX Intelligence estimates, not appraisals. Read more Central Texas market data on the ALEX blog: https://alex-companies.com/blog