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Forest Oaks Entry-Level Homes: Affordability Check
By George Arnold Alexander III, MPA · Associate Broker · 2026-10-19
Deal of the Week

Deals of the Week by price quartile. The quartiles come from the last 12 months of closed sales here. Each pick has the top ALEX deal score in its price range.
Lower-middle quartile: $380,000 to $450,000
1223 Peyton PL, Cedar Park TX 78613 · MLS #2552652
Listed at $387,000, 4 bed, 2.5 bath, 1,856 sq ft. The top-scoring home for sale here this week on price per sq ft, price changes and time on market; 56% under the local price per sq ft; price reduced 3% from original.
See it on alex.realestate: https://www.alex.realestate/listing-detail/1186523047/1223-Peyton-PL-Cedar-Park-TX
Upper-middle quartile: $450,000 to $600,000
418 S Lynnwood TRL, Cedar Park TX 78613 · MLS #5240389
Listed at $575,000, 4 bed, 2.5 bath, 3,099 sq ft. Listed 1% below the ALEX valuation; 13% under the local price per sq ft; price reduced 7% from original.
See it on alex.realestate: https://www.alex.realestate/listing-detail/1188157902/418-S-Lynnwood-TRL-Cedar-Park-TX
Upper quartile: $600,000 and up
1014 Bretton Woods DR, Cedar Park TX 78613 · MLS #5794396
Listed at $609,000, 4 bed, 2.5 bath, 3,503 sq ft. Listed 0% below the ALEX valuation; 19% under the local price per sq ft; price reduced 7% from original.
See it on alex.realestate: https://www.alex.realestate/listing-detail/1188987446/1014-Bretton-Woods-DR-Cedar-Park-TX
Key figures · Forest Oaks · rolling 12 months ending Sep 30, 2026
- 36 homes sold in Forest Oaks in the 12 months ending Sep 30, 2026 (up 2.9% on a year earlier).
- Median sale price: $437,230 (down 25.9% on a year earlier).
- Median price per square foot: $208.
- Median days on market: 26.
- Median sale price as a share of the original list price: 95.1%.
- 8 homes for sale now, about 2.7 months of supply at the pace of the last six months.
Source: Unlock MLS, rolling 12 months ending Sep 30, 2026. Homes only (single-family, condo, townhome). Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed.
What does an entry-level home cost in Forest Oaks when rates are 7.32%? The median sale price for the bottom quartile of homes is $437,230 across 36 closed sales over the last 12 months.
ALEX Intelligence calculated affordability using a standard scenario: a down payment on the median entry-level price with a 30-year fixed mortgage at the current rate of 7.32%. This results in a principal and interest payment of $2,403 per month. For buyers comparing options, a 3-2-1 buydown could lower that first-year payment to $1,735, though it would cost approximately $16,284 upfront.
The market has shifted significantly compared to the prior rolling period. The median entry-level price dropped 25.9% year-over-year, while homes are taking 23.8% longer to sell, averaging 26 days on market. Despite the lower prices, 80.6% of these entry-level sales closed below the original list price, indicating that buyers have more leverage than in previous years.
This data reflects a specific segment of the Forest Oaks market where homes average 2,175 square feet. While affordability has improved due to lower prices, the higher interest rate remains a key factor for monthly budgeting. Buyers should weigh the immediate payment relief of buydowns against their long-term financing costs in this cooling environment.
Want a closer look? Reply or call George at 713.918.9951 and we'll set up a showing.
Data from Unlock MLS. Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Model outputs are ALEX Intelligence estimates, not appraisals.
Read more Central Texas market data on the ALEX blog: https://alex-companies.com/blog
Source data: Unlock MLS closed sales, rolling 12 months ending Sep 30, 2026, n=36
Licensed by the Texas Real Estate Commission. Broker: Alexander Tiffany Southwest, LLC · License #565194-BB.
Diane Hart Alexander, Chair & CEO, ALEX Companies · Designated Broker · #574877-B · George Arnold Alexander III, Partner, ALEX Companies · Associate Broker · #574878-B
Texas Real Estate Commission Information About Brokerage Services · TREC Consumer Protection Notice · trec.texas.gov
Diane Hart Alexander, Chair & CEO, ALEX Companies · Designated Broker · #574877-B · George Arnold Alexander III, Partner, ALEX Companies · Associate Broker · #574878-B
Texas Real Estate Commission Information About Brokerage Services · TREC Consumer Protection Notice · trec.texas.gov










