| George Arnold Alexander III, MPA |
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Blackhawk: How Mortgage Rates Shape Buying Power This Fall
By George Arnold Alexander III, MPA · Associate Broker · 2026-10-27
Deal of the Week

Deals of the Week by price quartile. The quartiles come from the last 12 months of closed sales here. Each pick has the top ALEX deal score in its price range.
Lower quartile: under $475,000
20013 Crane Creek LOOP, Pflugerville TX 78660 · MLS #6757990
Listed at $375,000, 4 bed, 2 bath, 2,074 sq ft. Listed 9% below the ALEX valuation; price reduced 16% from original.
See it on alex.realestate: https://www.alex.realestate/listing-detail/1184140874/20013-Crane-Creek-LOOP-Pflugerville-TX
Lower-middle quartile: $475,000 to $543,000
19712 Judys VW, Pflugerville TX 78660 · MLS #3656587
Listed at $534,855, 5 bed, 4 bath, 3,005 sq ft. Listed 7% below the ALEX valuation; 20% under the local price per sq ft; price reduced 11% from original.
See it on alex.realestate: https://www.alex.realestate/listing-detail/1177252033/19712-Judys-VW-Pflugerville-TX
Upper-middle quartile: $543,000 to $625,000
20416 Shellduck DR, Pflugerville TX 78660 · MLS #3066194
Listed at $599,000, 5 bed, 4 bath, 3,638 sq ft. Listed 4% below the ALEX valuation; 12% under the local price per sq ft; price reduced 8% from original.
See it on alex.realestate: https://www.alex.realestate/listing-detail/1184259473/20416-Shellduck-DR-Pflugerville-TX
Upper quartile: $625,000 and up
19725 Helens Catch DR, Pflugerville TX 78660 · MLS #2845198
Listed at $629,900, 4 bed, 3 bath, 2,864 sq ft. Listed 3% below the ALEX valuation; price reduced 14% from original.
See it on alex.realestate: https://www.alex.realestate/listing-detail/1180722269/19725-Helens-Catch-DR-Pflugerville-TX
Key figures · Blackhawk · rolling 6 months ending Sep 30, 2026
- 81 homes sold in Blackhawk in the 6 months ending Sep 30, 2026 (up 14.1% on a year earlier).
- Median sale price: $541,000 (up 2.0% on a year earlier).
- Median price per square foot: $191.
- Median days on market: 42.
- Median sale price as a share of the original list price: 96.2%.
- 87 homes for sale now, about 6.4 months of supply at the pace of the last six months.
Source: Unlock MLS, rolling 6 months ending Sep 30, 2026. Homes only (single-family, condo, townhome). Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed.
What does a 7.32% mortgage rate mean for a buyer in Blackhawk today? With the median closed sale price at $541,000 across 81 homes over the last six months, monthly payments are sensitive to every basis point. A standard 30-year fixed loan with 20% down on that median price results in a principal and interest payment of $2,973 per month.
ALEX Intelligence modeled two common buydown scenarios to show how buyers can manage this rate environment. A 3-2-1 buydown reduces the rate to 4.32% in year one, cutting the monthly payment by $826 compared to the standard rate. The total cost for this three-year buydown is $20,136, or 3.72% of the median sale price. A shorter 2-1 buydown costs $10,224 (1.89% of price) and lowers the first-year payment by $564.
These figures are based on the median sale price of $541,000 and a 7.32% note rate from the week of October 22, 2026. While the median days on market has improved to 42 days compared to 88 days in the prior period, affordability remains the primary driver for transaction timing. Buyers should weigh the upfront cost of a buydown against their long-term holding plans and cash flow needs.
ALEX Intelligence estimates are based on current rate data and do not constitute an appraisal or financial advice.
Want a closer look? Reply or call George at 713.918.9951 and we'll set up a showing.
Data from Unlock MLS. Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Model outputs are ALEX Intelligence estimates, not appraisals.
Read more Central Texas market data on the ALEX blog: https://alex-companies.com/blog
Source data: Unlock MLS closed sales, rolling 6 months ending Sep 30, 2026, n=81; Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey, week of Oct 22, 2026
Licensed by the Texas Real Estate Commission. Broker: Alexander Tiffany Southwest, LLC · License #565194-BB.
Diane Hart Alexander, Chair & CEO, ALEX Companies · Designated Broker · #574877-B · George Arnold Alexander III, Partner, ALEX Companies · Associate Broker · #574878-B
Texas Real Estate Commission Information About Brokerage Services · TREC Consumer Protection Notice · trec.texas.gov
Diane Hart Alexander, Chair & CEO, ALEX Companies · Designated Broker · #574877-B · George Arnold Alexander III, Partner, ALEX Companies · Associate Broker · #574878-B
Texas Real Estate Commission Information About Brokerage Services · TREC Consumer Protection Notice · trec.texas.gov










