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ShadowGlen List-to-Sale Ratios Explain Price Reality
By George Arnold Alexander III, MPA · Associate Broker · 2026-10-31
Deal of the Week

Deals of the Week by price quartile. The quartiles come from the last 12 months of closed sales here. Each pick has the top ALEX deal score in its price range.
Lower quartile: under $328,000
17701 Owl Tree RD, Manor TX 78653 · MLS #2955591
Listed at $317,500, 3 bed, 2 bath, 1,795 sq ft. The top-scoring home for sale here this week on price per sq ft, price changes and time on market.
See it on alex.realestate: https://www.alex.realestate/listing-detail/1178882549/17701-Owl-Tree-RD-Manor-TX
Lower-middle quartile: $328,000 to $392,000
13716 Sugar Bush PATH, Manor TX 78653 · MLS #8352997
Listed at $370,000, 3 bed, 2.5 bath, 2,400 sq ft. Listed 6% below the ALEX valuation; 12% under the local price per sq ft; price reduced 7% from original.
See it on alex.realestate: https://www.alex.realestate/listing-detail/1178960281/13716-Sugar-Bush-PATH-Manor-TX
Upper-middle quartile: $392,000 to $457,000
16712 Rakesh WAY, Manor TX 78653 · MLS #7070422
Listed at $450,000, 3 bed, 3 bath, 2,504 sq ft. Listed 6% below the ALEX valuation; price reduced 10% from original.
See it on alex.realestate: https://www.alex.realestate/listing-detail/1179466010/16712-Rakesh-WAY-Manor-TX
Upper quartile: $457,000 and up
14404 Kira LN, Manor TX 78653 · MLS #5513651
Listed at $490,000, 4 bed, 3 bath, 2,722 sq ft. Listed 4% below the ALEX valuation; price reduced 11% from original.
See it on alex.realestate: https://www.alex.realestate/listing-detail/1182793087/14404-Kira-LN-Manor-TX
Key figures · ShadowGlen · rolling 6 months ending Sep 30, 2026
- 36 homes sold in ShadowGlen in the 6 months ending Sep 30, 2026 (down 16.3% on a year earlier).
- Median sale price: $399,000 (unchanged on a year earlier).
- Median price per square foot: $166.
- Median days on market: 28.
- Median sale price as a share of the original list price: 96.2%.
- 31 homes for sale now, about 4.8 months of supply at the pace of the last six months.
Source: Unlock MLS, rolling 6 months ending Sep 30, 2026. Homes only (single-family, condo, townhome). Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed.
What does a 96.2% list-to-sale ratio tell buyers and sellers in ShadowGlen? This metric compares the final closing price to the original listing price, revealing how closely homes sell to their asking value. In this market, the median sale price of $399,000 reflects a 16.2% increase from the prior six-month period, yet homes still close slightly below their initial list prices.
ALEX Intelligence analyzed the relationship between original lists and final sales across 36 transactions to determine pricing accuracy. The data shows that 75% of these properties sold for less than their original list price, a shift from 80.6% in the prior period. This indicates that while sellers are holding firm on initial prices, buyers are successfully negotiating down, resulting in a median close-to-original-list ratio of 0.962.
The trend suggests a market where listing strategies matter more than ever. With the median price per square foot rising to $166, up 3.1% from the prior period, overpricing remains a risk. The data confirms that even as prices climb, the gap between asking and selling prices persists, requiring sellers to price competitively from day one to avoid extended market time or further reductions.
This analysis is based on Unlock MLS closed sales data for ShadowGlen, covering 36 homes sold in the rolling six months ending September 30, 2026.
Want a closer look? Reply or call George at 713.918.9951 and we'll set up a showing.
Data from Unlock MLS. Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Model outputs are ALEX Intelligence estimates, not appraisals.
Read more Central Texas market data on the ALEX blog: https://alex-companies.com/blog
Source data: Unlock MLS closed sales, rolling 6 months ending Sep 30, 2026, n=36
Licensed by the Texas Real Estate Commission. Broker: Alexander Tiffany Southwest, LLC · License #565194-BB.
Diane Hart Alexander, Chair & CEO, ALEX Companies · Designated Broker · #574877-B · George Arnold Alexander III, Partner, ALEX Companies · Associate Broker · #574878-B
Texas Real Estate Commission Information About Brokerage Services · TREC Consumer Protection Notice · trec.texas.gov
Diane Hart Alexander, Chair & CEO, ALEX Companies · Designated Broker · #574877-B · George Arnold Alexander III, Partner, ALEX Companies · Associate Broker · #574878-B
Texas Real Estate Commission Information About Brokerage Services · TREC Consumer Protection Notice · trec.texas.gov










