Manchaca Market Heat Score: A Cooling Trend in October

Deal of the Week

Deal of the Week · 12900 Ben Milam DR, Manchaca TX 78652 · MLS #9526468 · Listed by Keller Williams Realty. ALEX valuation $464,000 is an ALEX Intelligence estimate, not an appraisal.

Deals of the Week by price quartile. The quartiles come from the last 12 months of closed sales here. Each pick has the top ALEX deal score in its price range. Lower quartile: under $392,000 12900 Ben Milam DR, Manchaca TX 78652 · MLS #9526468 Listed at $379,000, 3 bed, 2 bath, 2,093 sq ft. Listed 18% below the ALEX valuation; 23% under the local price per sq ft; price reduced 23% from original. See it on alex.realestate: https://www.alex.realestate/listing-detail/1187449538/12900-Ben-Milam-DR-Manchaca-TX Lower-middle quartile: $392,000 to $465,000 12605 Iron Bridge DR, Manchaca TX 78652 · MLS #3754363 Listed at $429,900, 4 bed, 2.5 bath, 2,522 sq ft. Listed 6% below the ALEX valuation; 14% under the local price per sq ft; price reduced 9% from original. See it on alex.realestate: https://www.alex.realestate/listing-detail/1177171843/12605-Iron-Bridge-DR-Manchaca-TX Upper-middle quartile: $465,000 to $586,000 13402 Ramrod DR, Manchaca TX 78652 · MLS #4909918 Listed at $475,000, 3 bed, 2 bath, 1,861 sq ft. Listed 8% below the ALEX valuation; price reduced 19% from original. See it on alex.realestate: https://www.alex.realestate/listing-detail/1187599850/13402-Ramrod-DR-Manchaca-TX Upper quartile: $586,000 and up 12302 Bethel Church RD, Manchaca TX 78652 · MLS #8989534 Listed at $899,000, 2 bed, 1.5 bath, 2,400 sq ft. Listed 3% below the ALEX valuation; price reduced 25% from original. See it on alex.realestate: https://www.alex.realestate/listing-detail/1176113916/12302-Bethel-Church-RD-Manchaca-TX

Key figures · Manchaca · rolling 6 months ending Oct 31, 2026

35 homes sold in Manchaca in the 6 months ending Oct 31, 2026 (down 7.9% on a year earlier).

Median net sale price: $441,850 (down 5.5% on a year earlier).

Median price per square foot: $218.

Median days on market: 47.

Median sale price as a share of the original list price: 95.5%.

31 homes for sale now, about 5.3 months of supply at the pace of the last six months.

Source: Unlock MLS, rolling 6 months ending Oct 31, 2026. Single-family homes; prices net of seller-paid concessions, the same figures as the ALEX market statistics pages. Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed.

How does a local heat score reflect shifting buyer behavior when inventory dynamics change? ALEX Intelligence calculated a composite Market Heat Score for Manchaca by weighing median days on market, sale-to-list ratios, inventory levels, and price reduction frequency. The resulting index indicates a distinct cooling trend compared to the prior six-month period. Over the rolling six months ending October 31, 2026, 35 single-family homes closed with a median price of $441,850. This represents an 11.6% decrease from the previous six months and a 5.5% drop compared to the same window last year. The median price per square foot also declined by 8.9% to $218.17, while the median living area shrank slightly by 5.4%. Time on market has expanded significantly. Homes spent a median of 47 days on the MLS, a 51.6% increase from the prior period and 23.7% longer than last year. The share of homes selling below original list price rose to 82.9%, up 32.6% from the previous window. With 31 active listings and 35 closings over six months, the market holds 5.31 months of inventory, suggesting a shift toward buyer leverage. Current mortgage rates stand at 7.18% per the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey for the week of November 5, 2026. At this rate, a buyer purchasing a median-priced home would face a principal and interest payment of $2,395. A 3-2-1 buydown could reduce that initial payment to $1,724 in the first year for a total cost of $16,368. The composite heat score reflects these combined pressures: longer selling times, lower closing ratios, and increased price concessions. While activity remains steady with 35 sales, the metrics point to a market where buyers have gained negotiating power compared to earlier in the year. Want to see this home? Call or text George at 713.918.9951 for a private showing. Data from Unlock MLS. Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Model outputs are ALEX Intelligence estimates, not appraisals. Read more Central Texas market data on the ALEX blog: https://alex-companies.com/blog

George Arnold Alexander III, MPA

Partner, ALEX Companies

Associate Broker, Alexander Tiffany Southwest, LLC

Licensed Broker in TX, CO, NC, AL

[email protected] · +1 713.918.9951

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