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Lakeside at Tessera: 8.3 Months of Inventory Signals Buyer Market
By George Arnold Alexander III, MPA · Associate Broker · 2026-10-29
Deal of the Week

Deals of the Week by price quartile. The quartiles come from the last 12 months of closed sales here. Each pick has the top ALEX deal score in its price range.
Lower quartile: under $377,000
22108 Cross Timbers BND, Lago Vista TX 78645 · MLS #2866092
Listed at $330,000, 3 bed, 2 bath, 2,306 sq ft. Listed 28% below the ALEX valuation; 25% under the local price per sq ft; price reduced 28% from original.
See it on alex.realestate: https://www.alex.realestate/listing-detail/1183086813/22108-Cross-Timbers-BND-Lago-Vista-TX
Lower-middle quartile: $377,000 to $435,000
8008 Prairie Rye DR, Lago Vista TX 78645 · MLS #6766017
Listed at $409,999, 3 bed, 2.5 bath, 2,496 sq ft. The top-scoring home for sale here this week on price per sq ft, price changes and time on market; 21% under the local price per sq ft; price reduced 2% from original.
See it on alex.realestate: https://www.alex.realestate/listing-detail/1182518056/8008-Prairie-Rye-DR-Lago-Vista-TX
Upper-middle quartile: $435,000 to $517,000
8505 Pine Muhly DR, Lago Vista TX 78645 · MLS #5040746
Listed at $489,950, 4 bed, 3.5 bath, 2,482 sq ft. Listed 2% below the ALEX valuation; 4% under the local price per sq ft; price reduced 8% from original.
See it on alex.realestate: https://www.alex.realestate/listing-detail/1183474091/8505-Pine-Muhly-DR-Lago-Vista-TX
Upper quartile: $517,000 and up
7425 Desert Needle DR, Lago Vista TX 78645 · MLS #3173097
Listed at $814,699, 5 bed, 4 bath, 4,261 sq ft. Listed 4% below the ALEX valuation; price reduced 14% from original.
See it on alex.realestate: https://www.alex.realestate/listing-detail/1182963913/7425-Desert-Needle-DR-Lago-Vista-TX
Key figures · Lakeside at Tessera · rolling 6 months ending Sep 30, 2026
- 18 homes sold in Lakeside at Tessera in the 6 months ending Sep 30, 2026 (down 45.5% on a year earlier).
- Median sale price: $415,000 (down 17.9% on a year earlier).
- Median price per square foot: $176.
- Median days on market: 140.
- Median sale price as a share of the original list price: 92.2%.
- 25 homes for sale now, about 8.3 months of supply at the pace of the last six months.
Source: Unlock MLS, rolling 6 months ending Sep 30, 2026. Homes only (single-family, condo, townhome). Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed.
How much time does a buyer actually have to negotiate in Lakeside at Tessera? The answer lies in the months of inventory metric, which currently stands at 8.33 months based on 18 closed sales over the trailing six-month period. This figure is calculated by dividing the current active listings of 25 homes by the monthly average of closings.
In real estate analytics, a reading above six months typically indicates a buyer's market, where supply exceeds demand and prices tend to soften. The data confirms this dynamic: median closed prices have dropped 7.8% from the prior six-month period and are down 17.9% compared to the same window last year. While the median price per square foot remains stable at $176, the time on market has increased by 21.7% year-over-year to 140 days, giving buyers more time to evaluate options without pressure.
ALEX Intelligence analyzes this inventory level alongside pricing trends to determine market balance. With nearly nine months of stock available and a high share of homes selling below original list prices (83.3%), the leverage has clearly shifted toward purchasers. This environment favors those who can wait for deals rather than those needing immediate closure, as the supply gap continues to widen relative to absorption rates.
Want a closer look? Reply or call George at 713.918.9951 and we'll set up a showing.
Data from Unlock MLS. Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Model outputs are ALEX Intelligence estimates, not appraisals.
Read more Central Texas market data on the ALEX blog: https://alex-companies.com/blog
Source data: Unlock MLS rolling 6 months ending Sep 30, 2026, n=18 closed sales
Licensed by the Texas Real Estate Commission. Broker: Alexander Tiffany Southwest, LLC · License #565194-BB.
Diane Hart Alexander, Chair & CEO, ALEX Companies · Designated Broker · #574877-B · George Arnold Alexander III, Partner, ALEX Companies · Associate Broker · #574878-B
Texas Real Estate Commission Information About Brokerage Services · TREC Consumer Protection Notice · trec.texas.gov
Diane Hart Alexander, Chair & CEO, ALEX Companies · Designated Broker · #574877-B · George Arnold Alexander III, Partner, ALEX Companies · Associate Broker · #574878-B
Texas Real Estate Commission Information About Brokerage Services · TREC Consumer Protection Notice · trec.texas.gov










