| George Arnold Alexander III, MPA |
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New Listings vs. Closings: The Supply Gap in Lakeside at Tessera
By George Arnold Alexander III, MPA · Associate Broker · 2026-10-27
Deal of the Week

Deals of the Week by price quartile. The quartiles come from the last 12 months of closed sales here. Each pick has the top ALEX deal score in its price range.
Lower quartile: under $377,000
22108 Cross Timbers BND, Lago Vista TX 78645 · MLS #2866092
Listed at $330,000, 3 bed, 2 bath, 2,306 sq ft. Listed 28% below the ALEX valuation; 25% under the local price per sq ft; price reduced 28% from original.
See it on alex.realestate: https://www.alex.realestate/listing-detail/1183086813/22108-Cross-Timbers-BND-Lago-Vista-TX
Lower-middle quartile: $377,000 to $435,000
8008 Prairie Rye DR, Lago Vista TX 78645 · MLS #6766017
Listed at $409,999, 3 bed, 2.5 bath, 2,496 sq ft. The top-scoring home for sale here this week on price per sq ft, price changes and time on market; 21% under the local price per sq ft; price reduced 2% from original.
See it on alex.realestate: https://www.alex.realestate/listing-detail/1182518056/8008-Prairie-Rye-DR-Lago-Vista-TX
Upper-middle quartile: $435,000 to $517,000
8505 Pine Muhly DR, Lago Vista TX 78645 · MLS #5040746
Listed at $489,950, 4 bed, 3.5 bath, 2,482 sq ft. Listed 2% below the ALEX valuation; 4% under the local price per sq ft; price reduced 8% from original.
See it on alex.realestate: https://www.alex.realestate/listing-detail/1183474091/8505-Pine-Muhly-DR-Lago-Vista-TX
Upper quartile: $517,000 and up
7425 Desert Needle DR, Lago Vista TX 78645 · MLS #3173097
Listed at $814,699, 5 bed, 4 bath, 4,261 sq ft. Listed 4% below the ALEX valuation; price reduced 14% from original.
See it on alex.realestate: https://www.alex.realestate/listing-detail/1182963913/7425-Desert-Needle-DR-Lago-Vista-TX
Key figures · Lakeside at Tessera · rolling 6 months ending Sep 30, 2026
- 18 homes sold in Lakeside at Tessera in the 6 months ending Sep 30, 2026 (down 45.5% on a year earlier).
- Median sale price: $415,000 (down 17.9% on a year earlier).
- Median price per square foot: $176.
- Median days on market: 140.
- Median sale price as a share of the original list price: 92.2%.
- 26 homes for sale now, about 8.7 months of supply at the pace of the last six months.
Source: Unlock MLS, rolling 6 months ending Sep 30, 2026. Homes only (single-family, condo, townhome). Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed.
New listings in Lakeside at Tessera reached 28 while closings dropped to 18 over the last six months, creating a widening supply gap. This divergence marks a shift from the prior six-month period when 22 homes were listed and 46 sold. The current window shows an increase in new supply against a decrease in sales volume compared to the previous six months.
ALEX Intelligence analyzed this dual-axis trend to highlight how fresh inventory is outpacing demand. While 28 new homes entered the market, only 18 transactions closed, leaving a net accumulation of unsold properties. This dynamic contrasts with the same period last year, when 48 new listings met 33 closings.
The median home size also shrank slightly to 2,404 square feet from 2,575 square feet in the prior six months. Despite fewer sales, the median price held at $415,000, down 7.8% from the previous period but still reflecting a market where new supply is arriving faster than buyers are closing deals.
The data indicates a growing inventory of active listings relative to the pace of sales. With 26 homes currently active and only 18 closed in the last six months, the balance is shifting toward more options for buyers. This gap suggests that while new construction and resales continue to enter the market, the rate of absorption has slowed significantly compared to historical trends.
Want a closer look? Reply or call George at 713.918.9951 and we'll set up a showing.
Data from Unlock MLS. Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Model outputs are ALEX Intelligence estimates, not appraisals.
Read more Central Texas market data on the ALEX blog: https://alex-companies.com/blog
Source data: Unlock MLS, rolling 6 months ending Sep 30, 2026, n=18 closed sales and 50 new listings
Licensed by the Texas Real Estate Commission. Broker: Alexander Tiffany Southwest, LLC · License #565194-BB.
Diane Hart Alexander, Chair & CEO, ALEX Companies · Designated Broker · #574877-B · George Arnold Alexander III, Partner, ALEX Companies · Associate Broker · #574878-B
Texas Real Estate Commission Information About Brokerage Services · TREC Consumer Protection Notice · trec.texas.gov
Diane Hart Alexander, Chair & CEO, ALEX Companies · Designated Broker · #574877-B · George Arnold Alexander III, Partner, ALEX Companies · Associate Broker · #574878-B
Texas Real Estate Commission Information About Brokerage Services · TREC Consumer Protection Notice · trec.texas.gov










