Lakeside at Tessera Market Heat Score: A Deep Dive

Deal of the Week

22108 Cross Timbers BND, Lago Vista TX 78645
Deals of the Week by price quartile. The quartiles come from the last 12 months of closed sales here. Each pick has the top ALEX deal score in its price range. Lower quartile: under $377,000 22108 Cross Timbers BND, Lago Vista TX 78645 · MLS #2866092 Listed at $330,000, 3 bed, 2 bath, 2,306 sq ft. Listed 28% below the ALEX valuation; 25% under the local price per sq ft; price reduced 28% from original. See it on alex.realestate: https://www.alex.realestate/listing-detail/1183086813/22108-Cross-Timbers-BND-Lago-Vista-TX Lower-middle quartile: $377,000 to $435,000 8008 Prairie Rye DR, Lago Vista TX 78645 · MLS #6766017 Listed at $409,999, 3 bed, 2.5 bath, 2,496 sq ft. The top-scoring home for sale here this week on price per sq ft, price changes and time on market; 21% under the local price per sq ft; price reduced 2% from original. See it on alex.realestate: https://www.alex.realestate/listing-detail/1182518056/8008-Prairie-Rye-DR-Lago-Vista-TX Upper-middle quartile: $435,000 to $517,000 8505 Pine Muhly DR, Lago Vista TX 78645 · MLS #5040746 Listed at $489,950, 4 bed, 3.5 bath, 2,482 sq ft. Listed 2% below the ALEX valuation; 4% under the local price per sq ft; price reduced 8% from original. See it on alex.realestate: https://www.alex.realestate/listing-detail/1183474091/8505-Pine-Muhly-DR-Lago-Vista-TX Upper quartile: $517,000 and up 7425 Desert Needle DR, Lago Vista TX 78645 · MLS #3173097 Listed at $814,699, 5 bed, 4 bath, 4,261 sq ft. Listed 4% below the ALEX valuation; price reduced 14% from original. See it on alex.realestate: https://www.alex.realestate/listing-detail/1182963913/7425-Desert-Needle-DR-Lago-Vista-TX

Key figures · Lakeside at Tessera · rolling 6 months ending Sep 30, 2026

Source: Unlock MLS, rolling 6 months ending Sep 30, 2026. Homes only (single-family, condo, townhome). Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed.

Market figures by town

What does a median days-on-market figure of 140 days mean for the Lakeside at Tessera market? In this rolling six-month window ending September 30, 2026, homes sat on the market significantly longer than in the same period last year. The ALEX Intelligence Market Heat Score synthesizes four key metrics—days on market, sale-to-list ratio, inventory levels, and price reductions—to quantify this dynamic. The composite score for Lakeside at Tessera stands at 32 out of 100, indicating a distinct shift toward buyer-favorable conditions. This calculation weighs the median days on market of 140 days, which is up 21.7% compared to the same window last year, heavily against the sale-to-list ratio of 92.2%. While the ratio has improved slightly from the prior period, it remains below the regional average of 94.1%, reflecting that 83.3% of closed sales sold below their original list price. Inventory pressure is a primary driver here, with months of supply reaching 8.67. This level suggests a surplus of active listings relative to the pace of closings. The median close price of $415,000 has declined 17.9% year-over-year and 7.8% from the prior six-month period. These figures, derived from 18 closed sales, signal that while transactions continue, the speed and premium pricing seen in previous years have cooled considerably. ALEX Intelligence estimates this heat score by normalizing each metric against historical baselines to produce a single index value. For buyers, this environment offers more negotiation leverage; for sellers, it underscores the need for realistic pricing strategies aligned with current market velocity rather than past peaks. Want a closer look? Reply or call George at 713.918.9951 and we'll set up a showing. Data from Unlock MLS. Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Model outputs are ALEX Intelligence estimates, not appraisals. Read more Central Texas market data on the ALEX blog: https://alex-companies.com/blog
George Arnold Alexander III, MPA
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Partner, ALEX Companies
Associate Broker, Alexander Tiffany Southwest, LLC dba ALEX.realestate, et al.
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Source data: Unlock MLS closed sales, rolling 6 months ending Sep 30, 2026, n=18
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Licensed by the Texas Real Estate Commission. Broker: Alexander Tiffany Southwest, LLC · License #565194-BB.
Diane Hart Alexander, Chair & CEO, ALEX Companies · Designated Broker · #574877-B  ·  George Arnold Alexander III, Partner, ALEX Companies · Associate Broker · #574878-B
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