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Lakeside at Tessera: 9.3 Months of Inventory Signals Buyer Market
By George Arnold Alexander III, MPA · Associate Broker · 2026-10-20
Deal of the Week

Deals of the Week by price quartile. The quartiles come from the last 12 months of closed sales here. Each pick has the top ALEX deal score in its price range.
Lower quartile: under $377,000
22108 Cross Timbers BND, Lago Vista TX 78645 · MLS #2866092
Listed at $330,000, 3 bed, 2 bath, 2,306 sq ft. Listed 28% below the ALEX valuation; 25% under the local price per sq ft; price reduced 28% from original.
See it on alex.realestate: https://www.alex.realestate/listing-detail/1183086813/22108-Cross-Timbers-BND-Lago-Vista-TX
Lower-middle quartile: $377,000 to $435,000
8008 Prairie Rye DR, Lago Vista TX 78645 · MLS #6766017
Listed at $409,999, 3 bed, 2.5 bath, 2,496 sq ft. The top-scoring home for sale here this week on price per sq ft, price changes and time on market; 21% under the local price per sq ft; price reduced 2% from original.
See it on alex.realestate: https://www.alex.realestate/listing-detail/1182518056/8008-Prairie-Rye-DR-Lago-Vista-TX
Upper-middle quartile: $435,000 to $517,000
8505 Pine Muhly DR, Lago Vista TX 78645 · MLS #5040746
Listed at $489,950, 4 bed, 3.5 bath, 2,482 sq ft. Listed 2% below the ALEX valuation; 4% under the local price per sq ft; price reduced 8% from original.
See it on alex.realestate: https://www.alex.realestate/listing-detail/1183474091/8505-Pine-Muhly-DR-Lago-Vista-TX
Upper quartile: $517,000 and up
7425 Desert Needle DR, Lago Vista TX 78645 · MLS #3173097
Listed at $814,699, 5 bed, 4 bath, 4,261 sq ft. Listed 4% below the ALEX valuation; price reduced 14% from original.
See it on alex.realestate: https://www.alex.realestate/listing-detail/1182963913/7425-Desert-Needle-DR-Lago-Vista-TX
Key figures · Lakeside at Tessera · rolling 6 months ending Sep 30, 2026
- 18 homes sold in Lakeside at Tessera in the 6 months ending Sep 30, 2026 (down 45.5% on a year earlier).
- Median sale price: $415,000 (down 17.9% on a year earlier).
- Median price per square foot: $176.
- Median days on market: 140.
- Median sale price as a share of the original list price: 92.2%.
- 28 homes for sale now, about 9.3 months of supply at the pace of the last six months.
Source: Unlock MLS, rolling 6 months ending Sep 30, 2026. Homes only (single-family, condo, townhome). Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed.
Lakeside at Tessera currently holds 9.33 months of inventory based on the pace of 18 closed sales over the last six months. This figure is calculated by dividing the 28 active listings by the monthly average of closings. A market with more than six months of supply is classified as a buyer's market, giving purchasers ample time to negotiate and select from available homes.
The median closing price for these 18 sales stands at $415,000, which represents a 7.8% decrease from the prior six-month period and a 17.9% drop compared to the same window last year. While the median price per square foot remains steady at $176, homes are spending significantly longer on the market, with a median of 140 days compared to 115 days a year ago.
ALEX Intelligence analyzes this inventory level alongside pricing trends to determine market conditions. The extended time on market and elevated inventory suggest that sellers may need to adjust expectations to close deals in this current environment. With nearly 30 active listings and a slow absorption rate, the balance of power has shifted decisively toward buyers.
Want to see this home? Call or text George at 713.918.9951 for a private showing.
Data from Unlock MLS. Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Model outputs are ALEX Intelligence estimates, not appraisals.
Read more Central Texas market data on the ALEX blog: https://alex-companies.com/blog
Source data: Unlock MLS, rolling 6 months ending Sep 30, 2026, n=18 closed sales
Licensed by the Texas Real Estate Commission. Broker: Alexander Tiffany Southwest, LLC · License #565194-BB.
Diane Hart Alexander, Chair & CEO, ALEX Companies · Designated Broker · #574877-B · George Arnold Alexander III, Partner, ALEX Companies · Associate Broker · #574878-B
Texas Real Estate Commission Information About Brokerage Services · TREC Consumer Protection Notice · trec.texas.gov
Diane Hart Alexander, Chair & CEO, ALEX Companies · Designated Broker · #574877-B · George Arnold Alexander III, Partner, ALEX Companies · Associate Broker · #574878-B
Texas Real Estate Commission Information About Brokerage Services · TREC Consumer Protection Notice · trec.texas.gov










