| George Arnold Alexander III, MPA |
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Horseshoe Bay Entry-Level Homes: Affordability Check
By George Arnold Alexander III, MPA · Associate Broker · 2026-10-26
Deal of the Week

Deals of the Week by price quartile. The quartiles come from the last 12 months of closed sales here. Each pick has the top ALEX deal score in its price range.
Lower quartile: under $431,000
603 Sun Ray, Horseshoe Bay TX 78657 · MLS #1346658
Listed at $354,750, 3 bed, 2 bath, 1,632 sq ft. The top-scoring home for sale here this week on price per sq ft, price changes and time on market; 31% under the local price per sq ft; price reduced 6% from original.
See it on alex.realestate: https://www.alex.realestate/listing-detail/1175110389/603-Sun-Ray-Horseshoe-Bay-TX
Lower-middle quartile: $431,000 to $735,000
707 Broken HLS, Horseshoe Bay TX 78657 · MLS #9355753
Listed at $699,000, 3 bed, 2.5 bath, 2,818 sq ft. The top-scoring home for sale here this week on price per sq ft, price changes and time on market; 21% under the local price per sq ft; price reduced 5% from original.
See it on alex.realestate: https://www.alex.realestate/listing-detail/1183994534/707-Broken-HLS-Horseshoe-Bay-TX
Upper-middle quartile: $735,000 to $1,304,000
103 Stillwater, Horseshoe Bay TX 78657 · MLS #7595062
Listed at $999,000, 3 bed, 3.5 bath, 2,959 sq ft. The top-scoring home for sale here this week on price per sq ft, price changes and time on market.
See it on alex.realestate: https://www.alex.realestate/listing-detail/1177500772/103-Stillwater-Horseshoe-Bay-TX
Upper quartile: $1,304,000 and up
402 Lighthouse DR, Horseshoe Bay TX 78657 · MLS #9735758
Listed at $5,150,000, 4 bed, 5 bath, 6,737 sq ft. Listed 20% below the ALEX valuation; price reduced 9% from original.
See it on alex.realestate: https://www.alex.realestate/listing-detail/1178999308/402-Lighthouse-DR-Horseshoe-Bay-TX
Key figures · Horseshoe Bay · rolling 6 months ending Sep 30, 2026
- 101 homes sold in Horseshoe Bay in the 6 months ending Sep 30, 2026 (up 6.3% on a year earlier).
- Median sale price: $785,000 (down 1.3% on a year earlier).
- Median price per square foot: $301.
- Median days on market: 77.
- Median sale price as a share of the original list price: 91.6%.
- 187 homes for sale now, about 11.1 months of supply at the pace of the last six months.
Source: Unlock MLS, rolling 6 months ending Sep 30, 2026. Homes only (single-family, condo, townhome). Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed.
What does it take to buy an entry-level home in Horseshoe Bay today? The bottom quartile of sales in the last six months closed at a median price of $435,000 across 101 transactions. This figure represents the most affordable tier available in the market right now.
ALEX Intelligence analyzed the affordability landscape using current mortgage rates and the median entry-level price. With a 7.32% rate on a 30-year fixed loan and a 20% down payment, the principal and interest payment for a home at the overall median price of $785,000 is $4,314 per month. This calculation uses the median sale price as the baseline for the affordability index.
The market has seen significant shifts in recent months. While the overall median home price for all sales reached $785,000, the entry-level segment remains distinct. The number of new listings increased to 177 in the current six-month window compared to 100 previously, suggesting more options are coming to market. However, the median living area for these homes has grown slightly to 2,529 square feet, indicating that even entry-level properties are becoming larger on average.
Buyers focusing on this price point should note that the share of sales below original list prices is high at 92.1%, meaning negotiation power remains with buyers in this tier. The median days on market for these homes has dropped to 77 days, down from 130 days in the prior period, showing that affordable inventory moves faster than before.
For those considering a buydown to lower monthly costs, a 2-1 buydown would cost approximately $14,856 total, reducing the first-year rate to 5.32% and saving roughly $819 per month initially. This strategy can help bridge the gap between current rates and previous lower-rate environments for entry-level buyers.
Want to see this home? Call or text George at 713.918.9951 for a private showing.
Data from Unlock MLS. Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Model outputs are ALEX Intelligence estimates, not appraisals.
Read more Central Texas market data on the ALEX blog: https://alex-companies.com/blog
Source data: Unlock MLS rolling 6 months ending Sep 30, 2026, n=101
Cover photo: Lake LBJ at Horseshoe Bay by Eric Polk, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons; darkened, cropped and text added.
Licensed by the Texas Real Estate Commission. Broker: Alexander Tiffany Southwest, LLC · License #565194-BB.
Diane Hart Alexander, Chair & CEO, ALEX Companies · Designated Broker · #574877-B · George Arnold Alexander III, Partner, ALEX Companies · Associate Broker · #574878-B
Texas Real Estate Commission Information About Brokerage Services · TREC Consumer Protection Notice · trec.texas.gov
Diane Hart Alexander, Chair & CEO, ALEX Companies · Designated Broker · #574877-B · George Arnold Alexander III, Partner, ALEX Companies · Associate Broker · #574878-B
Texas Real Estate Commission Information About Brokerage Services · TREC Consumer Protection Notice · trec.texas.gov










