Horseshoe Bay New Listings vs. Closings: The Supply Gap

Deal of the Week

Deal of the Week · 104 Springfield, Horseshoe Bay TX 78657 · MLS #2853973 · Listed by RE/MAX HORSESHOE BAY RESORT SA. ALEX valuation $388,000 is an ALEX Intelligence estimate, not an appraisal.

Deals of the Week by price quartile. The quartiles come from the last 12 months of closed sales here. Each pick has the top ALEX deal score in its price range. Lower quartile: under $435,000 104 Springfield, Horseshoe Bay TX 78657 · MLS #2853973 Listed at $399,000, 3 bed, 2 bath, 1,999 sq ft. The top-scoring home for sale here this week on price per sq ft, price changes and time on market; 18% under the local price per sq ft; price reduced 3% from original. See it on alex.realestate: https://www.alex.realestate/listing-detail/1182517946/104-Springfield-Horseshoe-Bay-TX Lower-middle quartile: $435,000 to $728,000 100 W Up There, Horseshoe Bay TX 78657 · MLS #4924482 Listed at $515,000, 4 bed, 2 bath, 2,471 sq ft. The top-scoring home for sale here this week on price per sq ft, price changes and time on market; 34% under the local price per sq ft; price reduced 10% from original. See it on alex.realestate: https://www.alex.realestate/listing-detail/1182521222/100-W-Up-There-Horseshoe-Bay-TX Upper-middle quartile: $728,000 to $1,296,000 101 Third Sid W, Horseshoe Bay TX 78657 · MLS #2379325 Listed at $1,200,000, 4 bed, 3.5 bath, 2,442 sq ft. Listed 0% below the ALEX valuation; price reduced 20% from original. See it on alex.realestate: https://www.alex.realestate/listing-detail/1185658616/101-Third-Sid-W-Horseshoe-Bay-TX Upper quartile: $1,296,000 and up 111 Orange Plume, Horseshoe Bay TX 78657 · MLS #4141197 Listed at $2,995,000, 4 bed, 4.5 bath, 5,389 sq ft. Listed 24% below the ALEX valuation; price reduced 16% from original. See it on alex.realestate: https://www.alex.realestate/listing-detail/1177444638/111-Orange-Plume-Horseshoe-Bay-TX

Key figures · Horseshoe Bay · rolling 6 months ending Sep 30, 2026

101 homes sold in Horseshoe Bay in the 6 months ending Sep 30, 2026 (up 6.3% on a year earlier).

Median sale price: $785,000 (down 1.3% on a year earlier).

Median price per square foot: $301.

Median days on market: 77.

Median sale price as a share of the original list price: 91.6%.

186 homes for sale now, about 11.1 months of supply at the pace of the last six months.

Source: Unlock MLS, rolling 6 months ending Sep 30, 2026. Homes only (single-family, condo, townhome). Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed.

Horseshoe Bay is seeing a significant shift in inventory dynamics as new listings surge faster than closings over the last six months. In the rolling six-month window ending September 30, 2026, 177 new homes hit the market compared to 100 in the prior period, a 77% increase. Meanwhile, closed sales rose from 70 to 101, a 44% jump. This divergence creates a widening supply gap where fresh inventory is entering faster than it is being absorbed. The dual-axis trend shows that while buyer activity is accelerating, the influx of new supply is outpacing it. This dynamic suggests a market that is becoming more active but also more competitive for sellers looking to list, as the pool of available homes expands rapidly. ALEX Intelligence analyzed the volume of new listings against closed sales to quantify this gap. The data indicates that while demand is recovering, the rate at which properties are listed has accelerated even more sharply. For buyers, this means more options are becoming available, though the median price per square foot has dipped 9.6% compared to the prior period as inventory grows. The supply gap remains a key indicator for market balance. With 177 new listings and 101 closings in just half a year, the market is absorbing new stock at a slower rate than it arrives. This trend will likely influence pricing strategies and time on market as the balance shifts between available inventory and active buyers. Want a closer look? Reply or call George at 713.918.9951 and we'll set up a showing. Data from Unlock MLS. Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Model outputs are ALEX Intelligence estimates, not appraisals. Read more Central Texas market data on the ALEX blog: https://alex-companies.com/blog MIT, Nvidia, Google & IBM-Trained. Cross Domain-Expert: Quantum, AI, Ethics, Sovereignty, Intelligence, Philanthropy. Solepoint Planning. VUI AI Cloud Architect. AI Certifications Development. Quant/AI Instructor. Castor Venture Club Member. Associate Broker. George Arnold Alexander III, MPA Partner, ALEX Companies Associate Broker, Alexander Tiffany Southwest, LLC dba ALEX.realestate, et.al. Texas License #574878-B · Broker License #565194-BB Broker, ALEX Real Estate · North Carolina License #367733 Independent Broker, ALEX Real Estate · Colorado License #II.100112456 [email protected] · +1 713.918.9951