| George Arnold Alexander III, MPA |
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Belterra Market Heat Score: Speed and Price Power in September
By George Arnold Alexander III, MPA · Associate Broker · 2026-10-27
Deal of the Week

Deals of the Week by price quartile. The quartiles come from the last 12 months of closed sales here. Each pick has the top ALEX deal score in its price range.
Lower quartile: under $573,000
281 Kensington LN, Austin TX 78737 · MLS #3541731
Listed at $529,900, 4 bed, 2.5 bath, 2,400 sq ft. The top-scoring home for sale here this week on price per sq ft, price changes and time on market; 25% under the local price per sq ft.
See it on alex.realestate: https://www.alex.realestate/listing-detail/1186975589/281-Kensington-LN-Austin-TX
Lower-middle quartile: $573,000 to $670,000
13728 Mesa Verde DR, Austin TX 78737 · MLS #3287623
Listed at $649,999, 4 bed, 3 bath, 3,017 sq ft. The top-scoring home for sale here this week on price per sq ft, price changes and time on market; 27% under the local price per sq ft.
See it on alex.realestate: https://www.alex.realestate/listing-detail/1184258396/13728-Mesa-Verde-DR-Austin-TX
Upper-middle quartile: $670,000 to $800,000
170 Kinloch CT, Austin TX 78737 · MLS #4893911
Listed at $765,000, 4 bed, 3 bath, 3,768 sq ft. Listed 5% below the ALEX valuation; 31% under the local price per sq ft; price reduced 4% from original.
See it on alex.realestate: https://www.alex.realestate/listing-detail/1184604430/170-Kinloch-CT-Austin-TX
Upper quartile: $800,000 and up
560 Aspen DR, Austin TX 78737 · MLS #3765340
Listed at $1,129,500, 5 bed, 4.5 bath, 4,613 sq ft. The top-scoring home for sale here this week on price per sq ft, price changes and time on market; 17% under the local price per sq ft; price reduced 5% from original.
See it on alex.realestate: https://www.alex.realestate/listing-detail/1186164532/560-Aspen-DR-Austin-TX
Key figures · Belterra · rolling 6 months ending Sep 30, 2026
- 60 homes sold in Belterra in the 6 months ending Sep 30, 2026 (up 11.1% on a year earlier).
- Median sale price: $680,000 (down 2.5% on a year earlier).
- Median price per square foot: $237.
- Median days on market: 14.
- Median sale price as a share of the original list price: 98.0%.
- 16 homes for sale now, about 1.6 months of supply at the pace of the last six months.
Source: Unlock MLS, rolling 6 months ending Sep 30, 2026. Homes only (single-family, condo, townhome). Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed.
How fast is the Belterra market moving today? The ALEX Intelligence Market Heat Score for this master-planned community in Dripping Springs stands at 85 out of 100, reflecting a period where homes are selling quickly and prices remain resilient. This composite index weighs four key factors: median days on market, sale-to-list price ratio, inventory levels, and the frequency of price reductions.
Over the rolling six months ending September 30, 2026, Belterra recorded 60 closed sales with a median price of $680,000. The speed of transactions is a defining characteristic; the median days on market dropped to just 14 days, down 39% from the prior six-month period and 48% lower than the same window last year. This rapid turnover indicates strong buyer demand relative to available supply.
Price performance remains robust despite higher interest rates. The median close-to-original list ratio reached 0.98, meaning homes sold for an average of 98% of their original asking price. Only 65% of sales closed below the original list price, a significant improvement over the prior period where that figure stood at 74%. With only 16 active listings and 1.57 months of inventory, the market remains tightly balanced in favor of sellers.
The ALEX Intelligence model assigns weights to these metrics to generate a single heat score. In Belterra, the combination of low inventory, fast sales velocity, and high price retention drives the score well above the regional average. This data suggests that for sellers, listing now capitalizes on active demand, while buyers face a competitive environment requiring decisive action.
ALEX Intelligence estimate, not an appraisal.
Want a closer look? Reply or call George at 713.918.9951 and we'll set up a showing.
Data from Unlock MLS. Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Model outputs are ALEX Intelligence estimates, not appraisals.
Read more Central Texas market data on the ALEX blog: https://alex-companies.com/blog
Source data: Unlock MLS rolling 6 months ending Sep 30, 2026, n=60
Licensed by the Texas Real Estate Commission. Broker: Alexander Tiffany Southwest, LLC · License #565194-BB.
Diane Hart Alexander, Chair & CEO, ALEX Companies · Designated Broker · #574877-B · George Arnold Alexander III, Partner, ALEX Companies · Associate Broker · #574878-B
Texas Real Estate Commission Information About Brokerage Services · TREC Consumer Protection Notice · trec.texas.gov
Diane Hart Alexander, Chair & CEO, ALEX Companies · Designated Broker · #574877-B · George Arnold Alexander III, Partner, ALEX Companies · Associate Broker · #574878-B
Texas Real Estate Commission Information About Brokerage Services · TREC Consumer Protection Notice · trec.texas.gov










