Hays County Market Heat Score: October 2026

Deal of the Week

Deal of the Week · 133 Maverick Ave, Kyle TX 78640 · MLS #4860903 · Listed by First Texas Brokerage Company. ALEX valuation $282,000 is an ALEX Intelligence estimate, not an appraisal.

Deals of the Week by price quartile. The quartiles come from the last 12 months of closed sales here. Each pick has the top ALEX deal score in its price range. Lower quartile: under $285,000 133 Maverick Ave, Kyle TX 78640 · MLS #4860903 Listed at $259,990, 3 bed, 2.5 bath, 1,592 sq ft. Listed 8% below the ALEX valuation; 5% under the local price per sq ft; price reduced 13% from original. See it on alex.realestate: https://www.alex.realestate/listing-detail/1182524151/133-Maverick-Ave-Kyle-TX Lower-middle quartile: $285,000 to $373,000 50 Whispering Valley DR, Wimberley TX 78676 · MLS #7492904 Listed at $319,000, 3 bed, 2 bath, 1,400 sq ft. Listed 7% below the ALEX valuation; 18% under the local price per sq ft; price reduced 14% from original. See it on alex.realestate: https://www.alex.realestate/listing-detail/1187839117/50-Whispering-Valley-DR-Wimberley-TX Upper-middle quartile: $373,000 to $553,000 289 Serene Hollow LN, Buda TX 78610 · MLS #3770568 Listed at $385,000, 4 bed, 3.5 bath, 2,709 sq ft. Listed 4% below the ALEX valuation; 20% under the local price per sq ft; price reduced 13% from original. See it on alex.realestate: https://www.alex.realestate/listing-detail/1184471251/289-Serene-Hollow-LN-Buda-TX Upper quartile: $553,000 and up 605 Bird HOLW, Austin TX 78737 · MLS #1678455 Listed at $999,900, 5 bed, 4.5 bath, 3,798 sq ft. Listed 5% below the ALEX valuation; 11% under the local price per sq ft; price reduced 13% from original. See it on alex.realestate: https://www.alex.realestate/listing-detail/1187416258/605-Bird-HOLW-Austin-TX

Key figures · Hays County · October 2026

292 homes sold in Hays County in October 2026 (down 7.9% on a year earlier).

Median sale price: $371,080 (down 5.3% on a year earlier).

Median price per square foot: $185.

Median days on market: 72.

Median sale price as a share of the original list price: 93.5%.

1,861 homes for sale now, about 5.0 months of supply at the pace of the last six months.

Source: Unlock MLS, October 2026. Homes only (single-family, condo, townhome). Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed.

How does a market shift from balanced to cooling? Hays County's latest data shows a distinct change in momentum as the median days on market climbed to 72 days in October, up 28.6% from September and 16.1% higher than last year. This increase in time on market, combined with a 5.3% drop in median closed prices compared to October 2025, signals a shift toward buyer leverage. ALEX Intelligence calculated the Hays County Market Heat Score using a composite index that weighs days on market, sale-to-list ratio, inventory levels, and price reduction frequency. With 4.95 months of inventory currently available and 87.3% of homes selling below their original list price, the score reflects a cooling trend compared to the tighter conditions seen earlier in the year. The median close-to-original list ratio held steady at 0.935, matching last October but down slightly from September's 0.944. While new construction remains active with 132 closed sales, the overall volume of 292 transactions represents an 11% decline from September and a 7.9% drop year-over-year. These figures suggest that while demand persists, buyers have more negotiating power as properties sit longer before closing. The heat score places Hays County in a transitional phase where inventory is accumulating faster than sales are clearing it. For sellers, this means pricing must align closely with current market realities to avoid extended listing periods. Buyers, conversely, may find more opportunities to negotiate as the gap between list and sale prices widens. Want to see this home? Call or text George at 713.918.9951 for a private showing. Data from Unlock MLS. Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Model outputs are ALEX Intelligence estimates, not appraisals. Read more Central Texas market data on the ALEX blog: https://alex-companies.com/blog

George Arnold Alexander III, MPA

Partner, ALEX Companies

Associate Broker, Alexander Tiffany Southwest, LLC

Licensed Broker in TX, CO, NC, AL

[email protected] · +1 713.918.9951

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