Fredericksburg New Listings vs. Closings: The Supply Gap

Deal of the Week

Deal of the Week · 129 Alameda DR, Fredericksburg TX 78624 · MLS #9274710 · Listed by Keller Williams City-View. ALEX valuation $266,000 is an ALEX Intelligence estimate, not an appraisal.

Deals of the Week by price quartile. The quartiles come from the last 12 months of closed sales here. Each pick has the top ALEX deal score in its price range. Lower quartile: under $422,000 129 Alameda DR, Fredericksburg TX 78624 · MLS #9274710 Listed at $269,900, 4 bed, 2 bath, 1,167 sq ft. The top-scoring home for sale here this week on price per sq ft, price changes and time on market. See it on alex.realestate: https://www.alex.realestate/listing-detail/1180546251/129-Alameda-DR-Fredericksburg-TX Lower-middle quartile: $422,000 to $595,000 162 Teal ST, Fredericksburg TX 78624 · MLS #5732042 Listed at $517,500, 5 bed, 3 bath, 2,594 sq ft. The top-scoring home for sale here this week on price per sq ft, price changes and time on market; 38% under the local price per sq ft. See it on alex.realestate: https://www.alex.realestate/listing-detail/1182519617/162-Teal-ST-Fredericksburg-TX Upper-middle quartile: $595,000 to $1,170,000 2143 Stone Oak, Fredericksburg TX 78624 · MLS #6406024 Listed at $1,050,000, 4 bed, 3.5 bath, 2,996 sq ft. Listed 0% below the ALEX valuation; price reduced 8% from original. See it on alex.realestate: https://www.alex.realestate/listing-detail/1182587983/2143-Stone-Oak-Fredericksburg-TX Upper quartile: $1,170,000 and up 502 N Orange ST, Fredericksburg TX 78624 · MLS #6435110 Listed at $1,249,900, 4 bed, 3 bath, 2,567 sq ft. The top-scoring home for sale here this week on price per sq ft, price changes and time on market; price reduced 9% from original. See it on alex.realestate: https://www.alex.realestate/listing-detail/1182516661/502-N-Orange-ST-Fredericksburg-TX

Key figures · Fredericksburg · rolling 6 months ending Sep 30, 2026

38 homes sold in Fredericksburg in the 6 months ending Sep 30, 2026 (up 18.8% on a year earlier).

Median sale price: $577,500 (down 26.2% on a year earlier).

Median price per square foot: $286.

Median days on market: 60.

Median sale price as a share of the original list price: 93.9%.

68 homes for sale now, about 10.5 months of supply at the pace of the last six months.

Source: Unlock MLS, ABOR-listed sales only, rolling 6 months ending Sep 30, 2026. Homes only (single-family, condo, townhome). Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed.

In Fredericksburg, a clear supply gap has emerged over the last six months as new listings outpaced closings. During the rolling period ending September 30, 2026, 70 new homes were listed for sale while only 38 closed transactions were recorded. This imbalance means that for every home sold, nearly two new properties entered the market, adding to the active inventory. ALEX Intelligence analyzed the dual-axis trend of supply and demand events to quantify this shift. The data shows a significant divergence between the rate of new supply entering the market and the pace at which buyers are closing deals. While 70 new listings appeared during this window, the volume of closed sales remained lower at 38 transactions. This dynamic contributes to an active inventory level that has grown relative to recent sales velocity. The ratio of new listings to closings suggests a market where buyer choice is expanding faster than demand is absorbing inventory. For sellers, this environment implies increased competition among available homes, while buyers may find more options without the immediate pressure of rapid depletion seen in tighter markets. The analysis relies on 38 closed sales and 70 new listing events to establish the current supply gap. This period reflects a shift where new construction and resale inventory are entering the market at a rate that exceeds the current closing velocity, altering the balance between available stock and completed transactions. Want a closer look? Reply or call George at 713.918.9951 and we'll set up a showing. Coverage: most home sales in Fredericksburg are listed in the Central Hill Country MLS, which ALEX does not receive yet. The figures in this post count only sales listed in Unlock MLS (ABOR), so they describe part of the local market, not all of it. Data from Unlock MLS. Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Model outputs are ALEX Intelligence estimates, not appraisals. Read more Central Texas market data on the ALEX blog: https://alex-companies.com/blog MIT, Nvidia, Google & IBM-Trained. Cross Domain-Expert: Quantum, AI, Ethics, Sovereignty, Intelligence, Philanthropy. Solepoint Planning. VUI AI Cloud Architect. AI Certifications Development. Quant/AI Instructor. Castor Venture Club Member. Associate Broker. George Arnold Alexander III, MPA Partner, ALEX Companies Associate Broker, Alexander Tiffany Southwest, LLC dba ALEX.realestate, et.al. Texas License #574878-B · Broker License #565194-BB Broker, ALEX Real Estate · North Carolina License #367733 Independent Broker, ALEX Real Estate · Colorado License #II.100112456 [email protected] · +1 713.918.9951