Canyon Lake Entry-Level Homes: Affordability Check

Deal of the Week

Deal of the Week · 155 Mary Ann DR, Canyon Lake TX 78133 · MLS #2535214 · Listed by Dagwood Management, LLC. ALEX valuation $303,000 is an ALEX Intelligence estimate, not an appraisal.

Deals of the Week by price quartile. The quartiles come from the last 12 months of closed sales here. Each pick has the top ALEX deal score in its price range. Lower quartile: under $316,000 155 Mary Ann DR, Canyon Lake TX 78133 · MLS #2535214 Listed at $299,000, 4 bed, 2 bath, 2,001 sq ft. Listed 1% below the ALEX valuation; 37% under the local price per sq ft; price reduced 8% from original. See it on alex.realestate: https://www.alex.realestate/listing-detail/1182633046/155-Mary-Ann-DR-Canyon-Lake-TX Lower-middle quartile: $316,000 to $392,000 141 Cody CT, Canyon Lake TX 78133 · MLS #6017860 Listed at $329,000, 3 bed, 2 bath, 1,265 sq ft. Listed 4% below the ALEX valuation; price reduced 12% from original. See it on alex.realestate: https://www.alex.realestate/listing-detail/1186669274/141-Cody-CT-Canyon-Lake-TX Upper-middle quartile: $392,000 to $682,000 254 Buckhaven DR, Canyon Lake TX 78133 · MLS #8261600 Listed at $575,000, 3 bed, 2 bath, 2,480 sq ft. The top-scoring home for sale here this week on price per sq ft, price changes and time on market; price reduced 4% from original. See it on alex.realestate: https://www.alex.realestate/listing-detail/1104577681/254-Buckhaven-DR-Canyon-Lake-TX Upper quartile: $682,000 and up 1889 Rush CRK, Canyon Lake TX 78133 · MLS #2315140 Listed at $849,750, 5 bed, 3.5 bath, 4,337 sq ft. The top-scoring home for sale here this week on price per sq ft, price changes and time on market; 17% under the local price per sq ft; price reduced 3% from original. See it on alex.realestate: https://www.alex.realestate/listing-detail/1184252264/1889-Rush-CRK-Canyon-Lake-TX

Key figures · Canyon Lake · rolling 6 months ending Oct 31, 2026

47 homes sold in Canyon Lake in the 6 months ending Oct 31, 2026 (up 9.3% on a year earlier).

Median sale price: $400,000 (down 11.3% on a year earlier).

Median price per square foot: $238.

Median days on market: 70.

Median sale price as a share of the original list price: 95.2%.

97 homes for sale now, about 12.4 months of supply at the pace of the last six months.

Source: Unlock MLS, ABOR-listed sales only, rolling 6 months ending Oct 31, 2026. Homes only (single-family, condo, townhome). Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed.

What does it take to buy an entry-level home in Canyon Lake today? For the bottom quartile of sales over the last six months, the median price reached $400,000 across 47 closed transactions. This figure represents the most affordable tier available in the market during this period. ALEX Intelligence analyzed the affordability landscape using current mortgage rates and the median entry-level price. With a 30-year fixed rate at 7.18% as of early November 2026, a buyer faces a principal and interest payment of $2,168 per month on this median price. This baseline helps contextualize the monthly cost of ownership for first-time buyers in this price bracket. The market shows signs of shifting value. The median price per square foot rose to $238, up 9.2% from the prior six-month period, while homes sold faster with a median of 70 days on market compared to 98 days previously. However, affordability remains a key consideration as 85.1% of these entry-level sales closed below their original list price. Buyers should note that financing options like buydowns can alter the monthly payment structure. A standard 3-2-1 buydown on this median price would cost $14,808 upfront, reducing the initial rate to 4.18% for the first year and saving $607 in the first month alone. This strategy may be relevant for buyers navigating the current rate environment while securing a home in the Canyon Lake area. The data reflects a market where entry-level inventory is active but requires careful financial planning given the prevailing interest rates and price trends. Want to see this home? Call or text George at 713.918.9951 for a private showing. Coverage: most home sales in Canyon Lake are listed in another MLS, which ALEX does not receive yet. The figures in this post count only sales listed in Unlock MLS (ABOR), so they describe part of the local market, not all of it. Data from Unlock MLS. Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Model outputs are ALEX Intelligence estimates, not appraisals. Read more Central Texas market data on the ALEX blog: https://alex-companies.com/blog

George Arnold Alexander III, MPA

Partner, ALEX Companies

Associate Broker, Alexander Tiffany Southwest, LLC

Licensed Broker in TX, CO, NC, AL

[email protected] · +1 713.918.9951

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