Caldwell County: How List Prices Compare to Final Sells in October

Deal of the Week

201 E Lima DR, Maxwell TX 78656
Deals of the Week by price quartile. The quartiles come from the last 12 months of closed sales here. Each pick has the top ALEX deal score in its price range. Lower quartile: under $216,000 201 E Lima DR, Maxwell TX 78656 · MLS #2665592 Listed at $209,990, 3 bed, 2 bath, 1,411 sq ft. Listed 4% below the ALEX valuation. See it on alex.realestate: https://www.alex.realestate/listing-detail/1177624308/201-E-Lima-DR-Maxwell-TX Lower-middle quartile: $216,000 to $243,000 132 Kendall LN, Maxwell TX 78656 · MLS #1502252 Listed at $228,500, 3 bed, 2.5 bath, 1,419 sq ft. Listed 3% below the ALEX valuation; price reduced 7% from original. See it on alex.realestate: https://www.alex.realestate/listing-detail/1179471859/132-Kendall-LN-Maxwell-TX Upper-middle quartile: $243,000 to $350,000 401 Wild Goose DR, Luling TX 78648 · MLS #9371243 Listed at $243,000, 4 bed, 2 bath, 1,572 sq ft. Listed 4% below the ALEX valuation; price reduced 5% from original. See it on alex.realestate: https://www.alex.realestate/listing-detail/1179417412/401-Wild-Goose-DR-Luling-TX Upper quartile: $350,000 and up 244 Melody RD, Lockhart TX 78644 · MLS #5597103 Listed at $609,900, 5 bed, 4.5 bath, 3,593 sq ft. Listed 3% below the ALEX valuation; 6% under the local price per sq ft; price reduced 9% from original. See it on alex.realestate: https://www.alex.realestate/listing-detail/1180622953/244-Melody-RD-Lockhart-TX

Key figures · Caldwell County · October 2026

Source: Unlock MLS, October 2026. Single-family homes; prices net of seller-paid concessions, the same figures as the ALEX market statistics pages. Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed.

Market figures by town

In October, buyers in Caldwell County paid a median of $258,628 for homes that originally listed for more, settling at 91.7% of the asking price on average. This close-to-original list ratio of 0.917 marks a shift from the prior month and reflects how negotiation outcomes are playing out in the current market. The list-to-sale price ratio measures the relationship between the final sold price and the original listing price. A ratio below 1.0 indicates that homes sold for less than they were first advertised. In October, 90.5% of closed sales fell below their original list prices, up from 75.8% in September. This suggests that while demand remains steady with 42 closed sales, sellers are adjusting expectations to match buyer offers more frequently. Compared to the same month last year, when homes sold at 94% of the original list price, the current ratio of 91.7% shows a wider gap between asking and selling prices. The median price per square foot also rose to $152.50, up 3.0% from September and 3.9% from last October. These figures indicate that while homes are taking longer to sell, the price adjustments are becoming more pronounced as inventory levels stabilize. ALEX Intelligence analyzed these trends using the ratio of final sale price to original list price across all closed transactions in the window. The data shows a clear pattern where initial listing prices are increasingly being revised downward or negotiated down to achieve a sale. This metric helps buyers and sellers understand the current negotiation landscape without relying on subjective market sentiment. The sample size for this analysis includes 42 closed sales, providing a robust view of recent transaction outcomes in Caldwell County. As the market continues to evolve, tracking these ratios offers a reliable indicator of how pricing strategies are aligning with actual buyer behavior. Want to see this home? Call or text George at 713.918.9951 for a private showing. Data from Unlock MLS. Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Model outputs are ALEX Intelligence estimates, not appraisals. Read more Central Texas market data on the ALEX blog: https://alex-companies.com/blog
George Arnold Alexander III, MPA
Partner, ALEX Companies
Associate Broker, Alexander Tiffany Southwest, LLC
Licensed Broker in TX, CO, NC, AL
[email protected] · +1 713.918.9951
TREC Information About Brokerage Services · TREC Consumer Protection Notice
Source data: Unlock MLS closed sales, October 2026, n=42
Cover photo: Lockhart State Park, Caldwell County by Larry D. Moore, CC BY 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons; darkened, cropped and text added.
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Licensed by the Texas Real Estate Commission. Broker: Alexander Tiffany Southwest, LLC · License #565194-BB.
Diane Hart Alexander, Chair & CEO, ALEX Companies · Designated Broker · #574877-B  ·  George Arnold Alexander III, Partner, ALEX Companies · Associate Broker · #574878-B
Texas Real Estate Commission Information About Brokerage Services · TREC Consumer Protection Notice · trec.texas.gov