Caldwell County Market Heat Score: October 2026

Deal of the Week

454 Dubai Ave, Maxwell TX 78656
Deals of the Week by price quartile. The quartiles come from the last 12 months of closed sales here. Each pick has the top ALEX deal score in its price range. Lower quartile: under $216,000 454 Dubai Ave, Maxwell TX 78656 · MLS #6280807 Listed at $214,999, 4 bed, 2 bath, 1,575 sq ft. Listed 12% below the ALEX valuation; price reduced 13% from original. See it on alex.realestate: https://www.alex.realestate/listing-detail/1189456380/454-Dubai-Ave-Maxwell-TX Lower-middle quartile: $216,000 to $243,000 304 Wild Goose DR, Luling TX 78648 · MLS #2351478 Listed at $238,500, 4 bed, 2 bath, 1,572 sq ft. Listed 5% below the ALEX valuation; price reduced 6% from original. See it on alex.realestate: https://www.alex.realestate/listing-detail/1179453404/304-Wild-Goose-DR-Luling-TX Upper-middle quartile: $243,000 to $350,000 2203 LIONHEART DR, Luling TX 78648 · MLS #8625433 Listed at $247,500, 5 bed, 2.5 bath, 1,892 sq ft. Listed 5% below the ALEX valuation; 15% under the local price per sq ft; price reduced 7% from original. See it on alex.realestate: https://www.alex.realestate/listing-detail/1178281973/2203-LIONHEART-DR-Luling-TX Upper quartile: $350,000 and up 100 Little El Paso RD, Martindale TX 78655 · MLS #6747369 Listed at $799,500, 4 bed, 5 bath, 3,850 sq ft. Listed 4% below the ALEX valuation; 20% under the local price per sq ft; price reduced 9% from original. See it on alex.realestate: https://www.alex.realestate/listing-detail/1182522602/100-Little-El-Paso-RD-Martindale-TX

Key figures · Caldwell County · October 2026

Source: Unlock MLS, October 2026. Homes only (single-family, condo, townhome). Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed.

Market figures by town

How does a 67.6% increase in median days on market reshape the Caldwell County market? In October 2026, homes took an average of 62 days to sell, up from 37 days a year ago, signaling a distinct shift toward buyer leverage despite rising prices. ALEX Intelligence calculated a Market Heat Score for this period by weighing four key indicators: median days on market, sale-to-list price ratio, inventory levels, and the frequency of price reductions. A score near the midpoint indicates a balanced market where neither buyers nor sellers hold a decisive advantage. The data reveals a complex dynamic. While the median closed price rose to $272,000, a 4.6% increase over last October, the speed of transactions slowed significantly. The share of homes selling below original list price jumped to 91%, and the average sale-to-list ratio dipped to 91.7%. Simultaneously, inventory held steady at roughly six months of supply, confirming that demand has cooled relative to the available stock. This composite view suggests that while property values remain resilient, the urgency that characterized previous years has dissipated. Buyers now have more time to evaluate listings, and sellers must price competitively to move properties within a 62-day window. The market is neither hot nor cold; it is in equilibrium. Want to see this home? Call or text George at 713.918.9951 for a private showing. Data from Unlock MLS. Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Model outputs are ALEX Intelligence estimates, not appraisals. Read more Central Texas market data on the ALEX blog: https://alex-companies.com/blog
George Arnold Alexander III, MPA
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Partner, ALEX Companies
Associate Broker, Alexander Tiffany Southwest, LLC dba ALEX.realestate, et al.
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Source data: Unlock MLS closed sales, October 2026, n=43
Cover photo: Lockhart State Park, Caldwell County by Larry D. Moore, CC BY 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons; darkened, cropped and text added.
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Licensed by the Texas Real Estate Commission. Broker: Alexander Tiffany Southwest, LLC · License #565194-BB.
Diane Hart Alexander, Chair & CEO, ALEX Companies · Designated Broker · #574877-B  ·  George Arnold Alexander III, Partner, ALEX Companies · Associate Broker · #574878-B
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