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Caldwell County: Where Prices Were Cut Most in September
By George Arnold Alexander III, MPA · Associate Broker · 2026-10-22
Deal of the Week

Deals of the Week by price quartile. The quartiles come from the last 12 months of closed sales here. Each pick has the top ALEX deal score in its price range.
Lower quartile: under $215,000
16 Church ST, Maxwell TX 78656 · MLS #5063210
Listed at $139,900, 3 bed, 1 bath, 1,484 sq ft. Listed 6% below the ALEX valuation; 34% under the local price per sq ft; price reduced 7% from original.
See it on alex.realestate: https://www.alex.realestate/listing-detail/1188728734/16-Church-ST-Maxwell-TX
Lower-middle quartile: $215,000 to $242,000
443 Dubai Ave, Maxwell TX 78656 · MLS #8966510
Listed at $241,999, 4 bed, 2 bath, 2,173 sq ft. Listed 7% below the ALEX valuation; 18% under the local price per sq ft; price reduced 4% from original.
See it on alex.realestate: https://www.alex.realestate/listing-detail/1187581112/443-Dubai-Ave-Maxwell-TX
Upper-middle quartile: $242,000 to $340,000
2117 Windflower LN, Luling TX 78648 · MLS #7349628
Listed at $264,499, 5 bed, 2.5 bath, 2,118 sq ft. Listed 10% below the ALEX valuation; 19% under the local price per sq ft; price reduced 4% from original.
See it on alex.realestate: https://www.alex.realestate/listing-detail/1184572978/2117-Windflower-LN-Luling-TX
Upper quartile: $340,000 and up
3913 Wishing Well DR, Lockhart TX 78644 · MLS #7829643
Listed at $399,900, 4 bed, 3.5 bath, 2,725 sq ft. Listed 6% below the ALEX valuation; 19% under the local price per sq ft; price reduced 11% from original.
See it on alex.realestate: https://www.alex.realestate/listing-detail/1189618017/3913-Wishing-Well-DR-Lockhart-TX
Key figures · Caldwell County · September 2026
- 32 homes sold in Caldwell County in September 2026 (down 15.8% on a year earlier).
- Median sale price: $269,490 (down 12.2% on a year earlier).
- Median price per square foot: $151.
- Median days on market: 46.
- Median sale price as a share of the original list price: 92.5%.
- 245 homes for sale now, about 6.0 months of supply at the pace of the last six months.
Source: Unlock MLS, September 2026. Homes only (single-family, condo, townhome). Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed.
In September 2026, nearly eight out of ten homes in Caldwell County sold for less than their original asking price. Across 32 closed sales with a median close price of $269,490, the share of transactions below list reached 78.1%, up from 88.1% in August and higher than the 84.2% recorded in September 2025.
ALEX Intelligence analyzed listing history to identify which subdivisions saw the most price reductions. Juniper Springs led with 100% of its seven closed sales coming after a price cut, followed by Cotton Gateway at 57%. Sunset Oaks saw cuts in one-third of its six transactions. The median reduction size across the county was $15,000, reflecting a market where sellers adjusted expectations to close deals.
The average days on market rose to 46 days, up 4.5% from August, while the median price per square foot dropped 5.6% to $151. This combination of increased reductions and longer listing times signals a shift toward buyer leverage in the local market.
The data covers closed sales only for September 2026. Sample size is 32 transactions.
Want to see this home? Call or text George at 713.918.9951 for a private showing.
Data from Unlock MLS. Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Model outputs are ALEX Intelligence estimates, not appraisals.
Read more Central Texas market data on the ALEX blog: https://alex-companies.com/blog
Source data: Unlock MLS closed sales and listing history, September 2026, n=32
Cover photo: Lockhart State Park, Caldwell County by Larry D. Moore, CC BY 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons; darkened, cropped and text added.
Licensed by the Texas Real Estate Commission. Broker: Alexander Tiffany Southwest, LLC · License #565194-BB.
Diane Hart Alexander, Chair & CEO, ALEX Companies · Designated Broker · #574877-B · George Arnold Alexander III, Partner, ALEX Companies · Associate Broker · #574878-B
Texas Real Estate Commission Information About Brokerage Services · TREC Consumer Protection Notice · trec.texas.gov
Diane Hart Alexander, Chair & CEO, ALEX Companies · Designated Broker · #574877-B · George Arnold Alexander III, Partner, ALEX Companies · Associate Broker · #574878-B
Texas Real Estate Commission Information About Brokerage Services · TREC Consumer Protection Notice · trec.texas.gov











