Caldwell County: How List Prices Compare to Sells in September

Deal of the Week

16 Church ST, Maxwell TX 78656
Deals of the Week by price quartile. The quartiles come from the last 12 months of closed sales here. Each pick has the top ALEX deal score in its price range. Lower quartile: under $215,000 16 Church ST, Maxwell TX 78656 · MLS #5063210 Listed at $139,900, 3 bed, 1 bath, 1,484 sq ft. Listed 6% below the ALEX valuation; 34% under the local price per sq ft; price reduced 7% from original. See it on alex.realestate: https://www.alex.realestate/listing-detail/1188728734/16-Church-ST-Maxwell-TX Lower-middle quartile: $215,000 to $242,000 443 Dubai Ave, Maxwell TX 78656 · MLS #8966510 Listed at $241,999, 4 bed, 2 bath, 2,173 sq ft. Listed 7% below the ALEX valuation; 18% under the local price per sq ft; price reduced 4% from original. See it on alex.realestate: https://www.alex.realestate/listing-detail/1187581112/443-Dubai-Ave-Maxwell-TX Upper-middle quartile: $242,000 to $340,000 2117 Windflower LN, Luling TX 78648 · MLS #7349628 Listed at $264,499, 5 bed, 2.5 bath, 2,118 sq ft. Listed 10% below the ALEX valuation; 19% under the local price per sq ft; price reduced 4% from original. See it on alex.realestate: https://www.alex.realestate/listing-detail/1184572978/2117-Windflower-LN-Luling-TX Upper quartile: $340,000 and up 3913 Wishing Well DR, Lockhart TX 78644 · MLS #7829643 Listed at $399,900, 4 bed, 3.5 bath, 2,725 sq ft. Listed 6% below the ALEX valuation; 19% under the local price per sq ft; price reduced 11% from original. See it on alex.realestate: https://www.alex.realestate/listing-detail/1189618017/3913-Wishing-Well-DR-Lockhart-TX

Key figures · Caldwell County · September 2026

Source: Unlock MLS, September 2026. Homes only (single-family, condo, townhome). Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed.

Market figures by town

In Caldwell County, homes sold for 92.5% of their original asking price in September, based on 32 closed sales. This list-to-sale ratio measures how closely final prices matched initial listings, a key indicator of negotiation leverage for buyers and sellers. The median close-to-original-list ratio dropped to 0.925 from 0.932 in August, a 0.8% decline month-over-month. While the price gap widened slightly compared to the prior period, it remains nearly flat against the same month last year, which saw a ratio of 0.926. This stability suggests that while buyers may have gained slight negotiating power recently, the fundamental pricing dynamic has not shifted dramatically over the past twelve months. ALEX Intelligence analyzed the relationship between original list prices and final sale prices to track this trend. In September, 78.1% of homes sold below their original list price, compared to 88.1% in August. The median close price rose 2.3% to $269,490, yet the ratio indicates that sellers are still conceding on average to secure a deal. The data reflects a market where initial pricing strategies continue to influence final outcomes. With 32 transactions analyzed, the trend shows a slight softening in the ability of sellers to command full list prices compared to the previous month, though year-over-year performance remains consistent. Want a closer look? Reply or call George at 713.918.9951 and we'll set up a showing. Data from Unlock MLS. Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Model outputs are ALEX Intelligence estimates, not appraisals. Read more Central Texas market data on the ALEX blog: https://alex-companies.com/blog
George Arnold Alexander III, MPA
MIT, Nvidia, Google, AWS & IBM-Trained. Cross-Domain Expert. Castor Venture Club.
Partner, ALEX Companies
Associate Broker, Alexander Tiffany Southwest, LLC dba ALEX.realestate, et al.
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Source data: Unlock MLS closed sales, September 2026, n=32
Cover photo: Lockhart State Park, Caldwell County by Larry D. Moore, CC BY 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons; darkened, cropped and text added.
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Licensed by the Texas Real Estate Commission. Broker: Alexander Tiffany Southwest, LLC · License #565194-BB.
Diane Hart Alexander, Chair & CEO, ALEX Companies · Designated Broker · #574877-B  ·  George Arnold Alexander III, Partner, ALEX Companies · Associate Broker · #574878-B
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