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Caldwell County: How List Prices Compare to Sells in September
By George Arnold Alexander III, MPA · Associate Broker · 2026-10-21
Deal of the Week

Deals of the Week by price quartile. The quartiles come from the last 12 months of closed sales here. Each pick has the top ALEX deal score in its price range.
Lower quartile: under $215,000
16 Church ST, Maxwell TX 78656 · MLS #5063210
Listed at $139,900, 3 bed, 1 bath, 1,484 sq ft. Listed 6% below the ALEX valuation; 34% under the local price per sq ft; price reduced 7% from original.
See it on alex.realestate: https://www.alex.realestate/listing-detail/1188728734/16-Church-ST-Maxwell-TX
Lower-middle quartile: $215,000 to $242,000
443 Dubai Ave, Maxwell TX 78656 · MLS #8966510
Listed at $241,999, 4 bed, 2 bath, 2,173 sq ft. Listed 7% below the ALEX valuation; 18% under the local price per sq ft; price reduced 4% from original.
See it on alex.realestate: https://www.alex.realestate/listing-detail/1187581112/443-Dubai-Ave-Maxwell-TX
Upper-middle quartile: $242,000 to $340,000
2117 Windflower LN, Luling TX 78648 · MLS #7349628
Listed at $264,499, 5 bed, 2.5 bath, 2,118 sq ft. Listed 10% below the ALEX valuation; 19% under the local price per sq ft; price reduced 4% from original.
See it on alex.realestate: https://www.alex.realestate/listing-detail/1184572978/2117-Windflower-LN-Luling-TX
Upper quartile: $340,000 and up
3913 Wishing Well DR, Lockhart TX 78644 · MLS #7829643
Listed at $399,900, 4 bed, 3.5 bath, 2,725 sq ft. Listed 6% below the ALEX valuation; 19% under the local price per sq ft; price reduced 11% from original.
See it on alex.realestate: https://www.alex.realestate/listing-detail/1189618017/3913-Wishing-Well-DR-Lockhart-TX
Key figures · Caldwell County · September 2026
- 32 homes sold in Caldwell County in September 2026 (down 15.8% on a year earlier).
- Median sale price: $269,490 (down 12.2% on a year earlier).
- Median price per square foot: $151.
- Median days on market: 46.
- Median sale price as a share of the original list price: 92.5%.
- 245 homes for sale now, about 6.0 months of supply at the pace of the last six months.
Source: Unlock MLS, September 2026. Homes only (single-family, condo, townhome). Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed.
In Caldwell County, homes sold for 92.5% of their original asking price in September, based on 32 closed sales. This list-to-sale ratio measures how closely final prices matched initial listings, a key indicator of negotiation leverage for buyers and sellers.
The median close-to-original-list ratio dropped to 0.925 from 0.932 in August, a 0.8% decline month-over-month. While the price gap widened slightly compared to the prior period, it remains nearly flat against the same month last year, which saw a ratio of 0.926. This stability suggests that while buyers may have gained slight negotiating power recently, the fundamental pricing dynamic has not shifted dramatically over the past twelve months.
ALEX Intelligence analyzed the relationship between original list prices and final sale prices to track this trend. In September, 78.1% of homes sold below their original list price, compared to 88.1% in August. The median close price rose 2.3% to $269,490, yet the ratio indicates that sellers are still conceding on average to secure a deal.
The data reflects a market where initial pricing strategies continue to influence final outcomes. With 32 transactions analyzed, the trend shows a slight softening in the ability of sellers to command full list prices compared to the previous month, though year-over-year performance remains consistent.
Want a closer look? Reply or call George at 713.918.9951 and we'll set up a showing.
Data from Unlock MLS. Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Model outputs are ALEX Intelligence estimates, not appraisals.
Read more Central Texas market data on the ALEX blog: https://alex-companies.com/blog
Source data: Unlock MLS closed sales, September 2026, n=32
Cover photo: Lockhart State Park, Caldwell County by Larry D. Moore, CC BY 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons; darkened, cropped and text added.
Licensed by the Texas Real Estate Commission. Broker: Alexander Tiffany Southwest, LLC · License #565194-BB.
Diane Hart Alexander, Chair & CEO, ALEX Companies · Designated Broker · #574877-B · George Arnold Alexander III, Partner, ALEX Companies · Associate Broker · #574878-B
Texas Real Estate Commission Information About Brokerage Services · TREC Consumer Protection Notice · trec.texas.gov
Diane Hart Alexander, Chair & CEO, ALEX Companies · Designated Broker · #574877-B · George Arnold Alexander III, Partner, ALEX Companies · Associate Broker · #574878-B
Texas Real Estate Commission Information About Brokerage Services · TREC Consumer Protection Notice · trec.texas.gov










