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Elgin Seasonality: When Sales Peak and Prices Rise
By George Arnold Alexander III, MPA · Associate Broker · 2026-11-03
Deal of the Week

Deals of the Week by price quartile. The quartiles come from the last 12 months of closed sales here. Each pick has the top ALEX deal score in its price range.
Lower quartile: under $250,000
116 Blue Ridge TRL, Elgin TX 78621 · MLS #9459005
Listed at $219,000, 3 bed, 2 bath, 1,296 sq ft. Listed 11% below the ALEX valuation; price reduced 11% from original.
See it on alex.realestate: https://www.alex.realestate/listing-detail/1182519970/116-Blue-Ridge-TRL-Elgin-TX
Lower-middle quartile: $250,000 to $283,000
205 Cavalry TRL, Elgin TX 78621 · MLS #8799613
Listed at $252,000, 3 bed, 2 bath, 1,663 sq ft. Listed 7% below the ALEX valuation; 7% under the local price per sq ft; price reduced 5% from original.
See it on alex.realestate: https://www.alex.realestate/listing-detail/1182517539/205-Cavalry-TRL-Elgin-TX
Upper-middle quartile: $283,000 to $321,000
111 Forego DR, Elgin TX 78621 · MLS #2010485
Listed at $289,900, 3 bed, 2.5 bath, 2,414 sq ft. Listed 13% below the ALEX valuation; 27% under the local price per sq ft; price reduced 11% from original.
See it on alex.realestate: https://www.alex.realestate/listing-detail/1189368137/111-Forego-DR-Elgin-TX
Upper quartile: $321,000 and up
307 W 4th ST, Elgin TX 78621 · MLS #1648730
Listed at $409,000, 3 bed, 2 bath, 2,077 sq ft. Listed 8% below the ALEX valuation; price reduced 11% from original.
See it on alex.realestate: https://www.alex.realestate/listing-detail/1182519247/307-W-4th-ST-Elgin-TX
Key figures · Elgin · October 2026
- 29 homes sold in Elgin in October 2026 (down 19.4% on a year earlier).
- Median sale price: $277,999 (down 6.5% on a year earlier).
- Median price per square foot: $160.
- Median days on market: 64.
- Median sale price as a share of the original list price: 95.5%.
- 287 homes for sale now, about 5.3 months of supply at the pace of the last six months.
Source: Unlock MLS, October 2026. Homes only (single-family, condo, townhome). Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed.
What month is best to list a home in Elgin? A seasonal decomposition of 24 months of local data reveals a distinct pattern where late-year activity often outperforms the rest of the year.
ALEX Intelligence analyzed monthly closed sales from November 2024 through October 2026 to identify the optimal listing window. The data shows that November is historically the strongest month for median prices in Elgin, reaching $315,900 in November 2025 and $301,990 in November 2026. This represents a significant premium compared to winter months like January, where prices dipped to $266,300 in 2026.
Sales volume also tends to peak in the late spring and early summer, with May and June seeing over 60 closed sales in 2026. However, November consistently delivers high transaction volumes alongside strong pricing power. In October 2026, 29 homes sold at a median of $277,999, which is lower than the historical November average but reflects current market cooling.
The seasonal trend suggests that while spring offers the highest volume, late autumn provides the best price realization for sellers in Elgin. Buyers looking for value might find more inventory and negotiation leverage during the colder months of January and February, when median prices historically dip to $261,990 or lower. Understanding this cycle helps align listing strategies with local market rhythms rather than relying on general national trends.
This analysis is based on 24 months of closed sales data for Elgin, covering 1,089 transactions. The seasonal decomposition isolates recurring patterns to guide timing decisions without predicting future price movements.
Want a closer look? Reply or call George at 713.918.9951 and we'll set up a showing.
Data from Unlock MLS. Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Model outputs are ALEX Intelligence estimates, not appraisals.
Read more Central Texas market data on the ALEX blog: https://alex-companies.com/blog
Source data: Unlock MLS closed sales, October 2026, n=29
Cover photo: Elgin Commercial Historic District by Renelibrary, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons; darkened, cropped and text added.
Licensed by the Texas Real Estate Commission. Broker: Alexander Tiffany Southwest, LLC · License #565194-BB.
Diane Hart Alexander, Chair & CEO, ALEX Companies · Designated Broker · #574877-B · George Arnold Alexander III, Partner, ALEX Companies · Associate Broker · #574878-B
Texas Real Estate Commission Information About Brokerage Services · TREC Consumer Protection Notice · trec.texas.gov
Diane Hart Alexander, Chair & CEO, ALEX Companies · Designated Broker · #574877-B · George Arnold Alexander III, Partner, ALEX Companies · Associate Broker · #574878-B
Texas Real Estate Commission Information About Brokerage Services · TREC Consumer Protection Notice · trec.texas.gov










