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The Colony Entry-Level Homes: Affordability Check
By George Arnold Alexander III, MPA · Associate Broker · 2026-10-28
Deal of the Week

Deals of the Week by price quartile. The quartiles come from the last 12 months of closed sales here. Each pick has the top ALEX deal score in its price range.
Lower quartile: under $367,000
121 Shagbark TRL, Bastrop TX 78602 · MLS #4374306
Listed at $359,999, 4 bed, 2 bath, 1,970 sq ft. Listed 1% below the ALEX valuation; price reduced 7% from original.
See it on alex.realestate: https://www.alex.realestate/listing-detail/1182776754/121-Shagbark-TRL-Bastrop-TX
Lower-middle quartile: $367,000 to $422,000
112 Rosemary CT, Bastrop TX 78602 · MLS #9984521
Listed at $391,400, 3 bed, 2 bath, 1,984 sq ft. Listed 5% below the ALEX valuation; price reduced 16% from original.
See it on alex.realestate: https://www.alex.realestate/listing-detail/1163997833/112-Rosemary-CT-Bastrop-TX
Upper-middle quartile: $422,000 to $538,000
134 Kildrummy PASS, Bastrop TX 78602 · MLS #2140332
Listed at $469,900, 4 bed, 3.5 bath, 2,527 sq ft. Listed 6% below the ALEX valuation; price reduced 16% from original.
See it on alex.realestate: https://www.alex.realestate/listing-detail/1183564895/134-Kildrummy-PASS-Bastrop-TX
Upper quartile: $538,000 and up
166 Kingswood DR, Bastrop TX 78602 · MLS #4491252
Listed at $549,900, 4 bed, 4.5 bath, 2,810 sq ft. Listed 11% below the ALEX valuation; price reduced 21% from original.
See it on alex.realestate: https://www.alex.realestate/listing-detail/1186376328/166-Kingswood-DR-Bastrop-TX
Key figures · The Colony · rolling 6 months ending Sep 30, 2026
- 104 homes sold in The Colony in the 6 months ending Sep 30, 2026 (up 33.3% on a year earlier).
- Median sale price: $434,950 (up 3.7% on a year earlier).
- Median price per square foot: $183.
- Median days on market: 63.
- Median sale price as a share of the original list price: 92.0%.
- 83 homes for sale now, about 4.8 months of supply at the pace of the last six months.
Source: Unlock MLS, rolling 6 months ending Sep 30, 2026. Homes only (single-family, condo, townhome). Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed.
What defines an entry-level home in The Colony today? For the bottom quartile of sales in the last six months, the median price is not explicitly listed in the summary data, but the overall market median stands at $434,950 across 104 closed transactions between April and September 2026.
ALEX Intelligence applied an affordability index to these figures using current market rates. With a 7.32% mortgage rate as of late October 2026, the baseline principal and interest payment for a home at the overall median price is $2,390 per month. This calculation assumes a standard 30-year fixed loan on the median sale price of $434,950.
The data shows that while prices in this tier have shifted, the cost of borrowing remains a significant factor. A 3-2-1 buydown would reduce the initial rate to 4.32% for the first year, lowering the monthly payment by $664 and costing $16,188 upfront. Alternatively, a 2-1 buydown offers a one-year reduction to 5.32% for $8,220. These concessions can temporarily improve cash flow but do not change the underlying price of the home.
The median entry-level home in The Colony represents the bottom quartile of the market. Buyers should weigh the immediate payment relief against the upfront cost of buydowns when evaluating their purchasing power in this market segment.
Want to see this home? Call or text George at 713.918.9951 for a private showing.
Data from Unlock MLS. Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Model outputs are ALEX Intelligence estimates, not appraisals.
Read more Central Texas market data on the ALEX blog: https://alex-companies.com/blog
Source data: Unlock MLS closed sales, rolling 6 months ending Sep 30, 2026, n=104
Cover photo: Ridgepointe Park, The Colony, TX by Kevin Payravi, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons; darkened, cropped and text added.
Licensed by the Texas Real Estate Commission. Broker: Alexander Tiffany Southwest, LLC · License #565194-BB.
Diane Hart Alexander, Chair & CEO, ALEX Companies · Designated Broker · #574877-B · George Arnold Alexander III, Partner, ALEX Companies · Associate Broker · #574878-B
Texas Real Estate Commission Information About Brokerage Services · TREC Consumer Protection Notice · trec.texas.gov
Diane Hart Alexander, Chair & CEO, ALEX Companies · Designated Broker · #574877-B · George Arnold Alexander III, Partner, ALEX Companies · Associate Broker · #574878-B
Texas Real Estate Commission Information About Brokerage Services · TREC Consumer Protection Notice · trec.texas.gov










