| George Arnold Alexander III, MPA |
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The Colony New Listings vs. Closings: The Supply Gap
By George Arnold Alexander III, MPA · Associate Broker · 2026-10-26
Deal of the Week

Deals of the Week by price quartile. The quartiles come from the last 12 months of closed sales here. Each pick has the top ALEX deal score in its price range.
Lower quartile: under $367,000
121 Shagbark TRL, Bastrop TX 78602 · MLS #4374306
Listed at $359,999, 4 bed, 2 bath, 1,970 sq ft. Listed 1% below the ALEX valuation; price reduced 7% from original.
See it on alex.realestate: https://www.alex.realestate/listing-detail/1182776754/121-Shagbark-TRL-Bastrop-TX
Lower-middle quartile: $367,000 to $422,000
112 Rosemary CT, Bastrop TX 78602 · MLS #9984521
Listed at $391,400, 3 bed, 2 bath, 1,984 sq ft. Listed 5% below the ALEX valuation; price reduced 16% from original.
See it on alex.realestate: https://www.alex.realestate/listing-detail/1163997833/112-Rosemary-CT-Bastrop-TX
Upper-middle quartile: $422,000 to $538,000
134 Kildrummy PASS, Bastrop TX 78602 · MLS #2140332
Listed at $469,900, 4 bed, 3.5 bath, 2,527 sq ft. Listed 6% below the ALEX valuation; price reduced 16% from original.
See it on alex.realestate: https://www.alex.realestate/listing-detail/1183564895/134-Kildrummy-PASS-Bastrop-TX
Upper quartile: $538,000 and up
166 Kingswood DR, Bastrop TX 78602 · MLS #4491252
Listed at $549,900, 4 bed, 4.5 bath, 2,810 sq ft. Listed 11% below the ALEX valuation; price reduced 21% from original.
See it on alex.realestate: https://www.alex.realestate/listing-detail/1186376328/166-Kingswood-DR-Bastrop-TX
Key figures · The Colony · rolling 6 months ending Sep 30, 2026
- 104 homes sold in The Colony in the 6 months ending Sep 30, 2026 (up 33.3% on a year earlier).
- Median sale price: $434,950 (up 3.7% on a year earlier).
- Median price per square foot: $183.
- Median days on market: 63.
- Median sale price as a share of the original list price: 92.0%.
- 81 homes for sale now, about 4.7 months of supply at the pace of the last six months.
Source: Unlock MLS, rolling 6 months ending Sep 30, 2026. Homes only (single-family, condo, townhome). Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed.
The Colony market is currently defined by a near-perfect balance between new supply and demand. Over the rolling six-month period ending September 30, 2026, 106 new listings entered the market while 104 homes successfully closed sales. This tight equilibrium means that for every home sold, roughly one new listing appeared to replace it.
ALEX Intelligence analyzed the dual-axis supply and demand trends to determine the current state of inventory. The data shows a slight surplus of new activity over closings, with 2 additional listings entering the market compared to those finalized. This dynamic contrasts with the prior six-month period, where only 89 new listings were recorded against 82 closings, indicating that supply has grown faster than sales volume recently.
Despite the influx of new inventory, the median price for closed homes rose 5.7% compared to the previous six months, reaching $434,950 across 104 transactions. The market remains active with a median days on market of 63 days, which is 30% faster than the prior period but still 43% slower than the same window last year. This suggests that while new homes are arriving at a steady pace, buyer demand is absorbing them without creating a significant backlog.
The supply gap remains narrow, with active inventory holding steady at 81 homes today. This balance prevents prices from surging or crashing, keeping the market in a stable state where buyers have options but sellers still command strong values relative to the previous year.
Want to see this home? Call or text George at 713.918.9951 for a private showing.
Data from Unlock MLS. Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Model outputs are ALEX Intelligence estimates, not appraisals.
Read more Central Texas market data on the ALEX blog: https://alex-companies.com/blog
Source data: Unlock MLS, rolling 6 months ending Sep 30, 2026, n=104 closed sales and 106 new listings
Cover photo: Ridgepointe Park, The Colony, TX by Kevin Payravi, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons; darkened, cropped and text added.
Licensed by the Texas Real Estate Commission. Broker: Alexander Tiffany Southwest, LLC · License #565194-BB.
Diane Hart Alexander, Chair & CEO, ALEX Companies · Designated Broker · #574877-B · George Arnold Alexander III, Partner, ALEX Companies · Associate Broker · #574878-B
Texas Real Estate Commission Information About Brokerage Services · TREC Consumer Protection Notice · trec.texas.gov
Diane Hart Alexander, Chair & CEO, ALEX Companies · Designated Broker · #574877-B · George Arnold Alexander III, Partner, ALEX Companies · Associate Broker · #574878-B
Texas Real Estate Commission Information About Brokerage Services · TREC Consumer Protection Notice · trec.texas.gov










