| George Arnold Alexander III, MPA |
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Bastrop New Listings vs. Closings: The Supply Gap
By George Arnold Alexander III, MPA · Associate Broker · 2026-11-01
Deal of the Week

Deals of the Week by price quartile. The quartiles come from the last 12 months of closed sales here. Each pick has the top ALEX deal score in its price range.
Lower quartile: under $313,000
133 Esperanza DR, Bastrop TX 78602 · MLS #7230275
Listed at $235,000, 3 bed, 2 bath, 1,919 sq ft. Listed 14% below the ALEX valuation; 36% under the local price per sq ft; price reduced 6% from original.
See it on alex.realestate: https://www.alex.realestate/listing-detail/1189549692/133-Esperanza-DR-Bastrop-TX
Lower-middle quartile: $313,000 to $377,000
134 Laumaia LN, Bastrop TX 78602 · MLS #3048547
Listed at $324,900, 3 bed, 2 bath, 1,256 sq ft. Listed 12% below the ALEX valuation; price reduced 24% from original.
See it on alex.realestate: https://www.alex.realestate/listing-detail/1174794537/134-Laumaia-LN-Bastrop-TX
Upper-middle quartile: $377,000 to $460,000
273 Tahitian DR, Bastrop TX 78602 · MLS #9084766
Listed at $450,000, 3 bed, 2.5 bath, 2,673 sq ft. Listed 4% below the ALEX valuation; 18% under the local price per sq ft; price reduced 5% from original.
See it on alex.realestate: https://www.alex.realestate/listing-detail/1175082597/273-Tahitian-DR-Bastrop-TX
Upper quartile: $460,000 and up
179 Rainbow DR, Bastrop TX 78602 · MLS #4223073
Listed at $499,000, 3 bed, 2 bath, 2,753 sq ft. Listed 12% below the ALEX valuation; 6% under the local price per sq ft; price reduced 17% from original.
See it on alex.realestate: https://www.alex.realestate/listing-detail/1187540878/179-Rainbow-DR-Bastrop-TX
Key figures · Bastrop · October 2026
- 42 homes sold in Bastrop in October 2026 (down 6.7% on a year earlier).
- Median sale price: $378,700 (up 1.0% on a year earlier).
- Median price per square foot: $185.
- Median days on market: 74.
- Median sale price as a share of the original list price: 93.2%.
- 301 homes for sale now, about 5.6 months of supply at the pace of the last six months.
Source: Unlock MLS, October 2026. Homes only (single-family, condo, townhome). Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed.
In October 2026, Bastrop saw 60 new listings enter the market while only 42 homes closed sales. This gap of 18 properties indicates a slight increase in available inventory relative to demand compared to September, when 71 new listings met 50 closings. The dual-axis supply and demand trend shows that while new supply continues to arrive, the pace of closings has slowed, leaving more homes on the market for buyers to choose from.
ALEX Intelligence analyzed the monthly flow of inventory to determine if this shift favors buyers or sellers. With 42 closed sales against 60 new listings, the net change in active stock is positive, suggesting a gradual move toward a more balanced environment. This contrasts with September, where the gap was larger as 71 new listings met only 50 closings. The current ratio of new supply to demand remains a key indicator for pricing power in the coming months.
The median days on market rose to 74 days, up 27.6% from the prior month, reflecting the increased time homes are spending on the market as inventory accumulates. Meanwhile, the median close price dipped slightly by 1.0% to $378,700, and the share of homes selling below original list price decreased by 3.1%. These figures suggest that while buyers have more options, sellers are still holding firm on prices in many cases, though the extended time on market may eventually pressure listings to adjust.
The supply gap remains a critical metric for understanding local market dynamics. As new listings continue to outpace closings, the months of inventory will likely rise, giving buyers more leverage in negotiations. This trend is consistent with the broader regional data, where similar patterns of increasing active inventory are observed.
Want a closer look? Reply or call George at 713.918.9951 and we'll set up a showing.
Data from Unlock MLS. Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Model outputs are ALEX Intelligence estimates, not appraisals.
Read more Central Texas market data on the ALEX blog: https://alex-companies.com/blog
Source data: Unlock MLS closed sales and new listings, October 2026, n=42 closed, n=60 new listings
Cover photo: Bastrop by gillfoto, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons; darkened, cropped and text added.
Licensed by the Texas Real Estate Commission. Broker: Alexander Tiffany Southwest, LLC · License #565194-BB.
Diane Hart Alexander, Chair & CEO, ALEX Companies · Designated Broker · #574877-B · George Arnold Alexander III, Partner, ALEX Companies · Associate Broker · #574878-B
Texas Real Estate Commission Information About Brokerage Services · TREC Consumer Protection Notice · trec.texas.gov
Diane Hart Alexander, Chair & CEO, ALEX Companies · Designated Broker · #574877-B · George Arnold Alexander III, Partner, ALEX Companies · Associate Broker · #574878-B
Texas Real Estate Commission Information About Brokerage Services · TREC Consumer Protection Notice · trec.texas.gov









