Bastrop Market Heat Score: A Balanced October

Deal of the Week

Deal of the Week · 123 Kawainui LN, Bastrop TX 78602 · MLS #8042666 · Listed by Bramlett Partners. ALEX valuation $303,000 is an ALEX Intelligence estimate, not an appraisal.

Deals of the Week by price quartile. The quartiles come from the last 12 months of closed sales here. Each pick has the top ALEX deal score in its price range. Lower quartile: under $312,000 123 Kawainui LN, Bastrop TX 78602 · MLS #8042666 Listed at $285,000, 3 bed, 2.5 bath, 1,673 sq ft. Listed 6% below the ALEX valuation; 17% under the local price per sq ft; price reduced 10% from original. See it on alex.realestate: https://www.alex.realestate/listing-detail/1186466555/123-Kawainui-LN-Bastrop-TX Lower-middle quartile: $312,000 to $375,000 220 Ulupau CIR, Bastrop TX 78602 · MLS #7922089 Listed at $350,000, 3 bed, 2 bath, 1,755 sq ft. Listed 8% below the ALEX valuation; price reduced 15% from original. See it on alex.realestate: https://www.alex.realestate/listing-detail/1183002651/220-Ulupau-CIR-Bastrop-TX Upper-middle quartile: $375,000 to $458,000 145 Haliimaile LN, Bastrop TX 78602 · MLS #7655899 Listed at $388,444, 3 bed, 2.5 bath, 1,990 sq ft. Listed 5% below the ALEX valuation; 5% under the local price per sq ft; price reduced 9% from original. See it on alex.realestate: https://www.alex.realestate/listing-detail/1179030158/145-Haliimaile-LN-Bastrop-TX Upper quartile: $458,000 and up 116 Shore Front DR, Bastrop TX 78602 · MLS #4185112 Listed at $475,000, 3 bed, 2.5 bath, 2,813 sq ft. Listed 4% below the ALEX valuation; 24% under the local price per sq ft; price reduced 5% from original. See it on alex.realestate: https://www.alex.realestate/listing-detail/1174540577/116-Shore-Front-DR-Bastrop-TX

Key figures · Bastrop · September 2026

50 homes sold in Bastrop in September 2026 (down 15.3% on a year earlier).

Median sale price: $382,500 (up 10.7% on a year earlier).

Median price per square foot: $195.

Median days on market: 58.

Median sale price as a share of the original list price: 94.1%.

305 homes for sale now, about 5.4 months of supply at the pace of the last six months.

Source: Unlock MLS, September 2026. Homes only (single-family, condo, townhome). Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed.

Is the Bastrop market cooling or simply stabilizing? The ALEX Intelligence Market Heat Score for October 2026 indicates a balanced market where neither buyers nor sellers hold a decisive advantage. This composite index weighs four key factors: median days on market, sale-to-list price ratio, inventory levels, and the frequency of price reductions. The data reveals a market in transition. Median closed prices reached $382,500, a 10.7% increase compared to September 2025. Homes are selling in 58 days on average, which is 15.9% faster than last year but unchanged from the previous month. With 305 active listings and 50 closings in September, the market holds 5.4 months of inventory, a classic indicator of balance. Buyers are finding deals, with 86% of homes selling below their original list price, though this share has decreased slightly from last year. The ALEX Intelligence model assigns equal weight to speed of sale, price retention, supply depth, and listing adjustments to derive the final score. While prices remain robust compared to a year ago, the extended time on market suggests buyers have gained leverage to negotiate. This score reflects current conditions based on 50 closed sales in September. It serves as a snapshot of local momentum rather than a prediction of future price movements. The balance suggests a healthy environment for both sides, provided expectations align with the 58-day average selling time and the 94.1% close-to-list ratio. Want to see this home? Call or text George at 713.918.9951 for a private showing. Data from Unlock MLS. Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Model outputs are ALEX Intelligence estimates, not appraisals. Read more Central Texas market data on the ALEX blog: https://alex-companies.com/blog MIT, Nvidia, Google & IBM-Trained. Cross Domain-Expert: Quantum, AI, Ethics, Sovereignty, Intelligence, Philanthropy. Solepoint Planning. VUI AI Cloud Architect. AI Certifications Development. Quant/AI Instructor. Castor Venture Club Member. Associate Broker. George Arnold Alexander III, MPA Partner, ALEX Companies Associate Broker, Alexander Tiffany Southwest, LLC dba ALEX.realestate, et.al. Texas License #574878-B · Broker License #565194-BB Broker, ALEX Real Estate · North Carolina License #367733 Independent Broker, ALEX Real Estate · Colorado License #II.100112456 [email protected] · +1 713.918.9951