Bastrop County Market Heat Score: October 2026

Bastrop County's market heat score dropped significantly in September 2026, reflecting a shift toward buyer leverage as homes took longer to sell. ALEX Intelligence calculated this composite index using four weighted factors: median days on market, sale-to-list price ratio, inventory levels, and the share of listings with price cuts. The data shows a clear cooling trend compared to the prior month. Median days on market rose 12.1% to 74 days, while the median close-to-original list ratio fell 1.5% to 93%. Although the median sale price increased 4.7% to $360,000 across 101 closed sales, this gain occurred alongside a 17.2% drop in sales volume compared to September 2025. The market now holds 5.87 months of inventory, well above the 4.0-month threshold typically defining a balanced market. Homes are spending significantly more time on the MLS before going under contract. The share of properties selling below original list price ticked up slightly to 87.1%, indicating that sellers are adjusting expectations more frequently. With 701 active listings and only 101 closings in the month, supply is outpacing demand. This environment favors buyers who can negotiate terms, though prices remain elevated compared to the same time last year. The heat score reflects a transition from a seller-favorable pace to a more balanced or buyer-friendly rhythm. While the median price remains 2.9% higher than September 2025, the increased time on market and rising inventory suggest that momentum has slowed. Buyers should expect more negotiation room, while sellers may need to price competitively to attract offers in this slower cycle. Want a closer look? Reply or call George at 713.918.9951 and we'll set up a showing. Data from Unlock MLS. Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Model outputs are ALEX Intelligence estimates, not appraisals. Read more Central Texas market data on the ALEX blog: https://alex-companies.com/blog