San Marcos Market Heat Score: A Cooling Trend in October

Deal of the Week

Deal of the Week · 340 Navidad River DR, San Marcos TX 78666 · MLS #4925570 · Listed by Keller Williams City-View. ALEX valuation $196,000 is an ALEX Intelligence estimate, not an appraisal.

Deals of the Week by price quartile. The quartiles come from the last 12 months of closed sales here. Each pick has the top ALEX deal score in its price range. Lower quartile: under $256,000 340 Navidad River DR, San Marcos TX 78666 · MLS #4925570 Listed at $172,999, 3 bed, 2 bath, 1,380 sq ft. Listed 12% below the ALEX valuation; price reduced 14% from original. See it on alex.realestate: https://www.alex.realestate/listing-detail/1184684834/340-Navidad-River-DR-San-Marcos-TX Lower-middle quartile: $256,000 to $320,000 105 El Mirage RD, San Marcos TX 78666 · MLS #2500731 Listed at $265,999, 4 bed, 2 bath, 2,014 sq ft. Listed 11% below the ALEX valuation; price reduced 18% from original. See it on alex.realestate: https://www.alex.realestate/listing-detail/1182553068/105-El-Mirage-RD-San-Marcos-TX Upper-middle quartile: $320,000 to $440,000 1013-1015 Sagewood TRL # 1015, San Marcos TX 78666 · MLS #7565068 Listed at $420,000, 3 bed, 2.5 bath, 3,192 sq ft. Listed 6% below the ALEX valuation; 27% under the local price per sq ft; price reduced 15% from original. See it on alex.realestate: https://www.alex.realestate/listing-detail/1185800507/1013-1015-Sagewood-TRL-1013-1015-San-Marcos-TX Upper quartile: $440,000 and up 328 Bundleflower WAY, San Marcos TX 78666 · MLS #7464017 Listed at $474,900, 4 bed, 3 bath, 2,529 sq ft. Listed 6% below the ALEX valuation; 5% under the local price per sq ft; price reduced 19% from original. See it on alex.realestate: https://www.alex.realestate/listing-detail/1186060641/328-Bundleflower-WAY-San-Marcos-TX

Key figures · San Marcos · September 2026

50 homes sold in San Marcos in September 2026 (down 26.5% on a year earlier).

Median sale price: $342,500 (up 2.4% on a year earlier).

Median price per square foot: $183.

Median days on market: 74.

Median sale price as a share of the original list price: 90.6%.

410 homes for sale now, about 6.2 months of supply at the pace of the last six months.

Source: Unlock MLS, September 2026. Homes only (single-family, condo, townhome). Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed.

What does a rising days-on-market metric mean for buyers and sellers in San Marcos? The ALEX Intelligence Market Heat Score calculates a composite index from 0 to 100 based on four key drivers: median days on market, sale-to-list price ratio, inventory levels, and the frequency of price reductions. For September 2026, the data indicates a shift toward a more balanced or slightly buyer-favorable environment compared to previous months. The data reveals a distinct cooling trend over the last 120 days. Median days on market increased by 15.6% from the prior period to reach 74 days across 50 closed sales, while the median sale-to-list ratio dropped to 90.6%. This means homes are staying on the market longer and selling for less relative to their original asking price. Simultaneously, inventory has accumulated, with 410 active listings representing a 6.2-month supply, which is well above the 6-month threshold often cited as balanced. Despite these cooling indicators, prices remain resilient. The median close price rose 9.1% from the prior month to $342,500, though it remains just 2.4% higher than the same time last year. This divergence suggests that while demand has softened enough to extend listing times and increase negotiation leverage for buyers, underlying value in the city has held steady. The composite index reflects a market where patience is rewarded, but significant price drops are not yet universal across all segments. Want a closer look? Reply or call George at 713.918.9951 and we'll set up a showing. Data from Unlock MLS. Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Model outputs are ALEX Intelligence estimates, not appraisals. Read more Central Texas market data on the ALEX blog: https://alex-companies.com/blog MIT, Nvidia, Google & IBM-Trained. Cross Domain-Expert: Quantum, AI, Ethics, Sovereignty, Intelligence, Philanthropy. Solepoint Planning. VUI AI Cloud Architect. AI Certifications Development. Quant/AI Instructor. Castor Venture Club Member. Associate Broker. George Arnold Alexander III, MPA Director, ALEX Companies Associate Broker, Alexander Tiffany Southwest, LLC dba ALEX.realestate, et.al. Texas License #574878-B · Broker License #565194-BB Broker, ALEX Real Estate · North Carolina License #367733 Independent Broker, ALEX Real Estate · Colorado License #II.100112456 [email protected] · +1 713.918.9951