San Marcos: Lessons from Expired and Withdrawn Listings

Deal of the Week

Deal of the Week · 340 Navidad River DR, San Marcos TX 78666 · MLS #4925570 · Listed by Keller Williams City-View. ALEX valuation $196,000 is an ALEX Intelligence estimate, not an appraisal.

Deals of the Week by price quartile. The quartiles come from the last 12 months of closed sales here. Each pick has the top ALEX deal score in its price range. Lower quartile: under $256,000 340 Navidad River DR, San Marcos TX 78666 · MLS #4925570 Listed at $172,999, 3 bed, 2 bath, 1,380 sq ft. Listed 12% below the ALEX valuation; price reduced 14% from original. See it on alex.realestate: https://www.alex.realestate/listing-detail/1184684834/340-Navidad-River-DR-San-Marcos-TX Lower-middle quartile: $256,000 to $320,000 105 El Mirage RD, San Marcos TX 78666 · MLS #2500731 Listed at $265,999, 4 bed, 2 bath, 2,014 sq ft. Listed 11% below the ALEX valuation; price reduced 18% from original. See it on alex.realestate: https://www.alex.realestate/listing-detail/1182553068/105-El-Mirage-RD-San-Marcos-TX Upper-middle quartile: $320,000 to $440,000 1013-1015 Sagewood TRL # 1015, San Marcos TX 78666 · MLS #7565068 Listed at $420,000, 3 bed, 2.5 bath, 3,192 sq ft. Listed 6% below the ALEX valuation; 27% under the local price per sq ft; price reduced 15% from original. See it on alex.realestate: https://www.alex.realestate/listing-detail/1185800507/1013-1015-Sagewood-TRL-1013-1015-San-Marcos-TX Upper quartile: $440,000 and up 328 Bundleflower WAY, San Marcos TX 78666 · MLS #7464017 Listed at $474,900, 4 bed, 3 bath, 2,529 sq ft. Listed 6% below the ALEX valuation; 5% under the local price per sq ft; price reduced 19% from original. See it on alex.realestate: https://www.alex.realestate/listing-detail/1186060641/328-Bundleflower-WAY-San-Marcos-TX

Key figures · San Marcos · September 2026

50 homes sold in San Marcos in September 2026 (down 26.5% on a year earlier).

Median sale price: $342,500 (up 2.4% on a year earlier).

Median price per square foot: $183.

Median days on market: 74.

Median sale price as a share of the original list price: 90.6%.

410 homes for sale now, about 6.2 months of supply at the pace of the last six months.

Source: Unlock MLS, September 2026. Homes only (single-family, condo, townhome). Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed.

What drives a listing to expire or withdraw in San Marcos? In September 2026, the data shows that 92% of homes sold below their original list price across 50 closed sales. This high rate suggests that properties failing to sell often remain on the market too long at prices buyers reject. ALEX Intelligence analyzed listing performance patterns to identify common traits among withdrawn or expired listings compared to those that sold. The median days on market for San Marcos reached 74 days in September, up 15.6% from the prior month and 2.8% higher than last year. Listings that do not sell within this window often face reduced visibility and increased pressure to cut prices. The median close-to-original list ratio stood at 0.906, meaning homes sold for roughly 90.6% of their asking price on average. This is down from 0.926 in the prior month and 0.916 a year ago. When sellers hold firm above market value, properties risk becoming stale, leading to withdrawals or extended time on the market without offers. For sellers, the lesson is clear: initial pricing must align with current buyer expectations. Properties listed too high often require significant price reductions later, which can signal distress to buyers. The data supports a strategy where realistic pricing at launch maximizes the chance of a timely sale before the listing enters the expiration risk zone. Want a closer look? Reply or call George at 713.918.9951 and we'll set up a showing. Data from Unlock MLS. Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Model outputs are ALEX Intelligence estimates, not appraisals. Read more Central Texas market data on the ALEX blog: https://alex-companies.com/blog MIT, Nvidia, Google & IBM-Trained. Cross Domain-Expert: Quantum, AI, Ethics, Sovereignty, Intelligence, Philanthropy. Solepoint Planning. VUI AI Cloud Architect. AI Certifications Development. Quant/AI Instructor. Castor Venture Club Member. Associate Broker. George Arnold Alexander III, MPA Director, ALEX Companies Associate Broker, Alexander Tiffany Southwest, LLC dba ALEX.realestate, et.al. Texas License #574878-B · Broker License #565194-BB Broker, ALEX Real Estate · North Carolina License #367733 Independent Broker, ALEX Real Estate · Colorado License #II.100112456 [email protected] · +1 713.918.9951