Horseshoe Bay: Seasonal Patterns in Home Sales and Prices

What drives the dramatic price swings seen in Horseshoe Bay over the last two years? ALEX Intelligence analyzed 24 months of closed sales to identify seasonal patterns that define this market. The data reveals a clear cycle where prices and volume fluctuate significantly by month rather than following a steady trend. The analysis shows that late spring and early summer often bring higher median prices, with April 2025 seeing a jump to $930,000 and June 2026 reaching $965,000. Conversely, the winter months frequently record lower activity and pricing. For instance, January 2026 saw a median price of $499,000, while March 2026 dropped to $435,000. These fluctuations are not anomalies but recurring features of the local cycle. Sales volume also follows this rhythm. The highest activity occurred in May 2025 with 23 closed sales and again in June 2026 with 20 sales. In contrast, February 2025 recorded only 7 closings. This seasonality suggests that listing timing can significantly impact both the speed of sale and the final price achieved. The current rolling six-month window shows a median close price of $785,000 across 101 sales, with homes spending an average of 77 days on market. While prices have dipped slightly compared to the same period last year, the seasonal peaks remain evident in the historical record. Understanding these cycles helps buyers and sellers align their strategies with the market's natural rhythm. ALEX Intelligence applied seasonal decomposition to 24 months of data to isolate these recurring trends from random monthly noise. The results indicate that while short-term volatility exists, the annual pattern remains a reliable indicator for planning transactions in Horseshoe Bay. Want to see this home? Call or text George at 713.918.9951 for a private showing. Data from Unlock MLS. Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Model outputs are ALEX Intelligence estimates, not appraisals. Read more Central Texas market data on the ALEX blog: https://alex-companies.com/blog MIT, Nvidia, Google & IBM-Trained. Cross Domain-Expert: Quantum, AI, Ethics, Sovereignty, Intelligence, Philanthropy. Solepoint Planning. VUI AI Cloud Architect. AI Certifications Development. Quant/AI Instructor. Castor Venture Club Member. Associate Broker. George Arnold Alexander III, MPA Director, ALEX Companies Associate Broker, Alexander Tiffany Southwest, LLC dba ALEX.realestate, et.al. Texas License #574878-B · Broker License #565194-BB Broker, ALEX Real Estate · North Carolina License #367733 Independent Broker, ALEX Real Estate · Colorado License #II.100112456 [email protected] · +1 713.918.9951