Caldwell County: Where Prices Were Cut Most in September

Deal of the Week

This week's 5 best values under $1,000,000, ranked by the ALEX deal score: 1. 119 Pine ST, Luling TX 78648 · MLS #6710720 Listed at $74,900, 2 bed, 1 bath, 1,113 sq ft. Listed 22% below the ALEX valuation; 56% under the local price per sq ft; price reduced 11% from original. See it on alex.realestate: https://www.alex.realestate/listing-detail/1187054012/119-Pine-ST-Luling-TX 2. 3919 Wishing Well DR, Lockhart TX 78644 · MLS #9135333 Listed at $399,900, 4 bed, 3 bath, 2,527 sq ft. Listed 9% below the ALEX valuation; 13% under the local price per sq ft; price reduced 16% from original. See it on alex.realestate: https://www.alex.realestate/listing-detail/1185875063/3919-Wishing-Well-DR-Lockhart-TX 3. 311 Melody RD, Lockhart TX 78644 · MLS #6741674 Listed at $389,900, 3 bed, 2 bath, 2,251 sq ft. Listed 8% below the ALEX valuation; 5% under the local price per sq ft; price reduced 15% from original. See it on alex.realestate: https://www.alex.realestate/listing-detail/1182515570/311-Melody-RD-Lockhart-TX 4. 111 Starlight PATH, Red Rock TX 78662 · MLS #9698595 Listed at $499,900, 4 bed, 3.5 bath, 2,687 sq ft. Listed 12% below the ALEX valuation; 34% under the local price per sq ft; price reduced 17% from original. See it on alex.realestate: https://www.alex.realestate/listing-detail/1180730057/111-Starlight-PATH-Red-Rock-TX 5. 316 Foxfire CV, Lockhart TX 78644 · MLS #4908404 Listed at $424,900, 4 bed, 3 bath, 2,513 sq ft. Listed 7% below the ALEX valuation; 7% under the local price per sq ft; price reduced 15% from original. See it on alex.realestate: https://www.alex.realestate/listing-detail/1183302254/316-Foxfire-CV-Lockhart-TX

In September, nearly three out of four homes in Caldwell County sold for less than the seller originally asked. ALEX Intelligence analyzed 30 closed sales to find that 76.7% of transactions ended below the initial list price. This marks a shift from the prior month, where 88.1% of sales were below list, and compares to 84.2% during the same month last year. The median sale price for these homes was $260,745, down 1.0% from August's $263,500. While prices dipped slightly, the frequency of price reductions remained high. The data shows that sellers are increasingly adjusting expectations to close deals in a market where buyers have more leverage. Looking at specific neighborhoods, Sun Sunset Oaks saw only 33% of its sales below list price, suggesting stronger pricing power there compared to Cotton Gateway, where 57% of sales were reduced. Juniper Springs was the most aggressive, with every single sale (100%) closing below the original asking price. This trend indicates a market where negotiation is standard practice rather than an exception. Buyers in Caldwell County should expect that listing prices are often starting points for discussion. The data reflects a balanced environment where patience and strategic offers can yield results below the sticker price. ALEX Intelligence estimates these trends based on 30 closed sales recorded in September 2026. Want to see this home? Call or text George at 713.918.9951 for a private showing. Data from Unlock MLS. Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Model outputs are ALEX Intelligence estimates, not appraisals. Read more Central Texas market data on the ALEX blog: https://alex-companies.com/blog MIT, Nvidia, Google & IBM-Trained. Cross Domain-Expert: Quantum, AI, Ethics, Sovereignty, Intelligence, Philanthropy. Solepoint Planning. VUI AI Cloud Architect. AI Certifications Development. Quant/AI Instructor. Castor Venture Club Member. Associate Broker. George Arnold Alexander III, MPA Director, ALEX Companies Associate Broker, Alexander Tiffany Southwest, LLC dba ALEX.realestate, et.al. Texas License #574878-B · Broker License #565194-BB Broker, ALEX Real Estate · North Carolina License #367733 Independent Broker, ALEX Real Estate · Colorado License #II.100112456 [email protected] · +1 713.918.9951