Bastrop County: Seasonal Trends Show Best Month to List

Deal of the Week

Deal of the Week · 19300 Bear Grass DR, Elgin TX 78621 · MLS #1383841 · Listed by Compass RE Texas, LLC. ALEX valuation $296,000 is an ALEX Intelligence estimate, not an appraisal.

Deals of the Week by price quartile. The quartiles come from the last 12 months of closed sales here. Each pick has the top ALEX deal score in its price range. Lower quartile: under $294,000 19300 Bear Grass DR, Elgin TX 78621 · MLS #1383841 Listed at $279,000, 3 bed, 2.5 bath, 1,859 sq ft. Listed 6% below the ALEX valuation; 9% under the local price per sq ft; price reduced 10% from original. See it on alex.realestate: https://www.alex.realestate/listing-detail/1183883868/19300-Bear-Grass-DR-Elgin-TX Lower-middle quartile: $294,000 to $345,000 241 Red Tail Hawk LN, Cedar Creek TX 78612 · MLS #1846048 Listed at $329,900, 4 bed, 2.5 bath, 2,220 sq ft. Listed 6% below the ALEX valuation; 6% under the local price per sq ft; price reduced 17% from original. See it on alex.realestate: https://www.alex.realestate/listing-detail/1169869467/241-Red-Tail-Hawk-LN-Cedar-Creek-TX Upper-middle quartile: $345,000 to $436,000 110 Cassins Nest, Cedar Creek TX 78612 · MLS #4993822 Listed at $386,990, 5 bed, 3 bath, 3,016 sq ft. Listed 7% below the ALEX valuation; 19% under the local price per sq ft; price reduced 15% from original. See it on alex.realestate: https://www.alex.realestate/listing-detail/1186127013/110-Cassins-Nest-Cedar-Creek-TX Upper quartile: $436,000 and up 1883 Watterson RD, Red Rock TX 78662 · MLS #5426029 Listed at $849,000, 4 bed, 3 bath, 3,729 sq ft. Listed 10% below the ALEX valuation; 19% under the local price per sq ft; price reduced 9% from original. See it on alex.realestate: https://www.alex.realestate/listing-detail/1183134104/1883-Watterson-RD-Red-Rock-TX

Key figures · Bastrop County · rolling 6 months ending Sep 30, 2026

705 homes sold in Bastrop County in the 6 months ending Sep 30, 2026 (up 5.9% on a year earlier).

Median sale price: $345,000 (down 2.0% on a year earlier).

Median price per square foot: $188.

Median days on market: 69.

Median sale price as a share of the original list price: 94.2%.

698 homes for sale now, about 5.8 months of supply at the pace of the last six months.

Source: Unlock MLS, rolling 6 months ending Sep 30, 2026. Homes only (single-family, condo, townhome). Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed.

Why does listing volume dip so sharply in the fall for Bastrop County sellers? A seasonal decomposition of 24 months of data reveals a distinct pattern where October consistently sees the lowest activity. In October 2025, closed sales fell 21.7% compared to the same month the previous year, with only 94 transactions recorded against a median price of $339,000. This contrasts sharply with June, which historically serves as the peak volume month, recording 147 closings in June 2026 alone. ALEX Intelligence analyzed the rolling trend to identify that while sales volume contracts in late autumn, pricing stability often holds firm. The median price in October 2025 was only 3.1% lower than the prior month, suggesting that motivated sellers can still achieve strong results even during the seasonal lull. Conversely, listing activity typically rebounds in spring; March 2026 saw a 32.1% increase in sales over the previous month as inventory levels rose. For buyers and sellers planning their next move, understanding this cycle is critical. The data indicates that while October offers less competition from other sellers, it also means fewer active listings for buyers to choose from. The seasonal decomposition confirms that waiting until spring may yield more inventory, but listing in the off-season could attract serious buyers looking before the rush begins. The analysis covers 24 months of closed sales data, showing a clear cyclical rhythm where summer drives volume and autumn slows the market. Sellers should note that while October is statistically the slowest month for transactions, the median price per square foot remains competitive compared to other fall months. Want to see this home? Call or text George at 713.918.9951 for a private showing. Data from Unlock MLS. Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Model outputs are ALEX Intelligence estimates, not appraisals. Read more Central Texas market data on the ALEX blog: https://alex-companies.com/blog MIT, Nvidia, Google & IBM-Trained. Cross Domain-Expert: Quantum, AI, Ethics, Sovereignty, Intelligence, Philanthropy. Solepoint Planning. VUI AI Cloud Architect. AI Certifications Development. Quant/AI Instructor. Castor Venture Club Member. Associate Broker. George Arnold Alexander III, MPA Director, ALEX Companies Associate Broker, Alexander Tiffany Southwest, LLC dba ALEX.realestate, et.al. Texas License #574878-B · Broker License #565194-BB Broker, ALEX Real Estate · North Carolina License #367733 Independent Broker, ALEX Real Estate · Colorado License #II.100112456 [email protected] · +1 713.918.9951