Bastrop County: Is It a Buyer's or Seller's Market?
By George Arnold Alexander III, MPA · Associate Broker · 2026-10-12
Deal of the Week
This week's 5 best values under $1,000,000, ranked by the ALEX deal score:
1. 156 FM 2571, Smithville TX 78957 · MLS #6475176
Listed at $225,000, 3 bed, 2 bath, 1,572 sq ft. Listed 20% below the ALEX valuation; 29% under the local price per sq ft; price reduced 24% from original.
See it on alex.realestate: https://www.alex.realestate/listing-detail/1180243260/156-FM-2571-Smithville-TX
2. 429 Hidden Shores Lp RD, Smithville TX 78957 · MLS #8191322
Listed at $75,000, 0 bed, 1 bath, 432 sq ft. Listed 14% below the ALEX valuation; 14% under the local price per sq ft; price reduced 23% from original.
See it on alex.realestate: https://www.alex.realestate/listing-detail/1175120060/429-Hidden-Shores-Lp-RD-Smithville-TX
3. 503 Elm ST, Bastrop TX 78602 · MLS #5188624
Listed at $499,000, 4 bed, 2.5 bath, 2,511 sq ft. Listed 17% below the ALEX valuation; price reduced 29% from original.
See it on alex.realestate: https://www.alex.realestate/listing-detail/1164657768/503-Elm-ST-Bastrop-TX
4. 110 Cancho Hill DR, Cedar Creek TX 78602 · MLS #5850044
Listed at $399,990, 4 bed, 3 bath, 2,466 sq ft. Listed 9% below the ALEX valuation; 11% under the local price per sq ft; price reduced 15% from original.
See it on alex.realestate: https://www.alex.realestate/listing-detail/1180010945/110-Cancho-Hill-DR-Cedar-Creek-TX
5. 503 Short ST, Smithville TX 78957 · MLS #7688314
Listed at $285,000, 3 bed, 3 bath, 2,118 sq ft. Listed 7% below the ALEX valuation; 38% under the local price per sq ft; price reduced 15% from original.
See it on alex.realestate: https://www.alex.realestate/listing-detail/1185292724/503-Short-ST-Smithville-TX
Is the Bastrop County market tipping toward buyers or sellers? With 6.12 months of inventory calculated from 721 active listings against 707 closed sales over the last six months, the market currently sits in balanced territory. Months of inventory measures how long it would take to sell all current homes at the current pace; a figure near 6 months typically indicates a balance where neither side holds overwhelming leverage.
This balance arrived after a significant shift in speed. Median days on market dropped to 69 days from 91 days in the prior six-month period, a 24% improvement in turnover speed. However, prices remain slightly softer than last year, with the median close price at $345,000, down 2% compared to the same window twelve months ago. The market is moving faster, but sellers are still negotiating on price, as 84.1% of homes sold below their original list price.
For buyers, this balance means there is a steady supply of choices without the intense bidding wars seen in tighter markets. For sellers, the data suggests that while properties are selling quicker than before, pricing strategy remains critical to avoid extended time on market. The ALEX Intelligence analysis confirms that with inventory levels hovering around 6 months, the market is neither distinctly a buyer's nor a seller's market, but rather a stable environment for transactions.
Want to see this home? Call or text George at 713.918.9951 for a private showing.
Data from Unlock MLS. Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Model outputs are ALEX Intelligence estimates, not appraisals.
Read more Central Texas market data on the ALEX blog: https://alex-companies.com/blog
MIT, Nvidia, Google & IBM-Trained. Cross Domain-Expert: Quantum, AI, Ethics, Sovereignty, Intelligence, Philanthropy. Solepoint Planning. VUI AI Cloud Architect. AI Certifications Development. Quant/AI Instructor. Castor Venture Club Member. Associate Broker.
George Arnold Alexander III, MPA
Director, ALEX Companies
Associate Broker, Alexander Tiffany Southwest, LLC dba ALEX.realestate, et.al.
Texas License #574878-B · Broker License #565194-BB
Broker, ALEX Real Estate · North Carolina License #367733
Independent Broker, ALEX Real Estate · Colorado License #II.100112456
[email protected] · +1 713.918.9951
Source data: Unlock MLS closed sales and active listings, rolling 6 months ending Sep 30, 2026, n=696
Cover photo: Bastrop Texas 7486.jpg by gillfoto, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons; darkened, cropped and text added.
Licensed by the Texas Real Estate Commission. Broker: Alexander Tiffany Southwest, LLC · License #565194-BB.
Diane Hart Alexander, Chair & CEO, ALEX Companies · Designated Broker · #574877-B · George Arnold Alexander III, Director, ALEX Companies · Associate Broker · #574878-B
Texas Real Estate Commission Information About Brokerage Services · TREC Consumer Protection Notice · trec.texas.gov
Diane Hart Alexander, Chair & CEO, ALEX Companies · Designated Broker · #574877-B · George Arnold Alexander III, Director, ALEX Companies · Associate Broker · #574878-B
Texas Real Estate Commission Information About Brokerage Services · TREC Consumer Protection Notice · trec.texas.gov





