Comparable-sales valuation · 16 September 2026

4319 Miramar Drive

Serenada West Sec 4 · Georgetown, Texas 78628 · Williamson County · MLS 3434023

Prepared for Gary C. Blackburn  ·  Prepared by Diane Hart Alexander, MBA, MHA, Designated Broker

$523,702
Indicated value · net sale price
Supported range$497.1k–$553.8kLow and high of the adjusted comparables
Asking price$540,000Reduced from $559,000 — see below
ConfidenceMedium 74Of 100, from four measured factors
Evidence3 salesAll within Serenada West

Asking price

Reduced once since listing

Listed 7 August 2026 at $559,000 and reduced to $540,000. Thirteen days on market.

$559,000
Original
7 Aug 2026
$540,000
Current
Original list price
$559,000
Current list price
$540,000
Reduction
−$19,000
Reduction, percent
−3.40%
Original, per square foot
$273.62
Current, per square foot
$264.32
Change per square foot
−$9.30
Days on market
13

The bars run from zero, so the cut reads at its true size: 3.4% is a modest reduction, and a chart with a cropped baseline would make it look like a collapse. The hatched cap on the original bar is the $19,000 that came off.

What this says

The asking price sits $16,298 above the evidence

Three closed sales inside Serenada West, each adjusted to this property across 66 factors and to today's market, place it at $523,702. That is a net figure — what a seller keeps after covering buyer closing costs and repair credits — which is the basis every number on this page uses.

The $540,000 list is 3.1% above that, and inside the supported range. This is not a report saying the house is mispriced; it is a report saying where the evidence sits and how firmly.

Where everything is

The subject, its comparables, and what it competes with

All three comparables lie within half a mile, inside the same subdivision. Click any red marker to jump to that sale in the table below.

Map of 4319 Miramar Drive with its three comparable sales and two active listings, on OpenStreetMap 4319 Miramar Dr 4301 Verde Vis 609 Esparada Dr 303 Sequoia Spur 300 W Sequoia Spur 205 E Esparada Dr
4319 Miramar Drive — the subject Comparable used (click to jump) Active listing, not used

Distances from the subject: 609 Esparada 0.11 mi, 4301 Verde Vis 0.29 mi, 303 Sequoia Spur 0.42 mi. The two active listings are both around 22% larger than this house, past the size tolerance, so neither is a comparable — but they are what a buyer looking at this property will also be seeing.

How firm is it

Measured on this property, not on a market average

Every figure below is computed from this property's own comparable set. Plain meaning first; the technical definition sits beneath each one.

Hiding each comparable and re-predicting it from the other two, the method is off by about this much. 6.2% Leave-one-out back-test, mean absolute error. Each sale is held out and re-predicted by the rest, re-running all 66 adjustment factors. On $523,702 that is roughly ±$32,500.
How much the three comparables disagree with each other once adjusted to this house. 10.8% Adjusted spread. Highest adjusted comparable against lowest, as a share of the estimate. Tight agreement; a wide spread would mean the middle of it was not a better answer than its edges.
How far the engine had to move these houses to make them comparable to this one. ±3.2% average Mean absolute adjustment. Small adjustments mean the comparables were genuinely alike to begin with. The largest single adjustment in this set is $25,998.
Half these sales closed longer ago than this. 145 days Mean comparable age. Serenada has given back its 2025 rally — $257.62/sf in the first half of 2025 against $226.44 now — so older sales are discounted explicitly by the market-timing factor rather than carried forward unchanged.

The evidence

Three Serenada West sales

AddressClosed Close priceNet Living areaBedsBuilt AdjustmentAdjusted
4301 Verde Vis27 May 2026$545,000$544,2002,052 sf31982+$9,614$553,814
609 Esparada Dr29 Jan 2026$482,500$482,5002,086 sf31984+$14,557$497,057
303 Sequoia Spur16 Jun 2026$550,000$549,7002,398 sf31979−$25,998$523,702
Median of the three adjusted values — range $497,057 to $553,814, spread 10.8% $523,702

Adjustments apply to net sale price — close price less seller-paid buyer closing costs and seller repairs — which is why the arithmetic runs off the Net column. Adjusted value = net + adjustment, and the indicated value is their median.

Two sales were rejected, and why

A sale more than ±20% from the asking price is not a comparable. The rule is absolute and applies before any other test. On a $540,000 list that band is $432,000 to $648,000, measured on net.

MLSCloseNetFrom listWhy it would have hurt
5450671$720,000$720,000+33%Needed a −$281,477 adjustment, 39% of its own sale price, to be usable at all
1459502$442,500$419,500−22%$23,000 of seller-paid closing costs put the net below the band

Removing them tightened the result rather than weakening it: the spread across the comparables fell from 24.5% to 10.8%, back-test error from 7.3% to 6.2%, and the search settled on closer matches. No comparable was drawn from an age-restricted community, none carries an HOA this property does not have, and none is this property's own prior sale.

Every adjustment

What was changed on each comparable, and why

Nothing here is rolled up. Every adjustment the engine applied is listed with its amount and the reason it was made, and each table carries two blank lines for an agent to record a judgement the engine cannot make.

4301 Verde Vis MLS 2956360

AdjustmentAmountWhy it was made
Year Built+$59,862The subject was built in 1993; this comparable is older, so its price is raised toward the subject.
Flooring−$19,047Finish difference in flooring between the two houses.
Kitchen−$15,000Kitchen finish level.
Mature Trees−$5,442Mature tree cover the subject does not match.
Fireplace−$5,000Fireplace the subject does not have.
View−$4,354View difference.
Living Area−$2,062Size difference, priced at the marginal rate rather than the average rate per square foot.
Market Timing+$656The market moved between this sale and today, from the Williamson County repeat-sales index.
Net sale price$544,200What the seller actually kept.
Total adjustment+$9,614The rows above, summed.
Adjusted value$553,814Net plus the total adjustment.
Agent adjustment  
Agent comment  

Market timing basis: Williamson County repeat-sales index, 19,824 pairs — 2026-05 → 2026-09, 4 months, factor 1.0012 (+0.1%)

609 Esparada Dr MLS 7139842

AdjustmentAmountWhy it was made
Year Built+$43,425The subject was built in 1993; this comparable is older, so its price is raised toward the subject.
Flooring−$20,430Finish difference in flooring between the two houses.
Living Area−$8,593Size difference, priced at the marginal rate rather than the average rate per square foot.
Study Office+$4,825Dedicated study or office.
Mature Trees−$4,825Mature tree cover the subject does not match.
Screened Porch−$4,825Screened porch.
Soaking Tub+$4,825Soaking tub.
View−$2,412View difference.
Chandelier+$2,000Light fixture of note.
Market Timing+$568The market moved between this sale and today, from the Williamson County repeat-sales index.
Net sale price$482,500What the seller actually kept.
Total adjustment+$14,557The rows above, summed.
Adjusted value$497,057Net plus the total adjustment.
Agent adjustment  
Agent comment  

Market timing basis: Williamson County repeat-sales index, 19,824 pairs — 2026-01 → 2026-09, 8 months, factor 1.0012 (+0.1%)

303 Sequoia Spur MLS 8726399

AdjustmentAmountWhy it was made
Year Built+$76,958The subject was built in 1993; this comparable is older, so its price is raised toward the subject.
Living Area−$70,310Size difference, priced at the marginal rate rather than the average rate per square foot.
Flooring−$19,240Finish difference in flooring between the two houses.
Market Timing−$15,406The market moved between this sale and today, from the Williamson County repeat-sales index.
Study Office+$5,497Dedicated study or office.
Mature Trees−$5,497Mature tree cover the subject does not match.
Soaking Tub+$5,000Soaking tub.
Workshop−$5,000Workshop structure.
Chandelier+$2,000Light fixture of note.
Net sale price$549,700What the seller actually kept.
Total adjustment−$25,998The rows above, summed.
Adjusted value$523,702Net plus the total adjustment.
Agent adjustment  
Agent comment  

Market timing basis: Williamson County repeat-sales index, 19,824 pairs — 2026-06 → 2026-09, 3 months, factor 0.9720 (−2.8%)

The property

4319 Miramar Drive

Living area2,043 sfOne story
Bedrooms / baths4 / 2Two-car garage
Year built1993Newer than most of Serenada
Lot0.53 ac23,087 sf · septic
WCAD 2026 market$441,435Land $124,254 + improvement $317,181
Annual tax$6,6751.5121% effective

Land is priced at this parcel's own Williamson CAD rate — $124,254 across 23,087 square feet, or $5.38 per square foot — not a county average and not a third-party record. The county roll reconciles for every year on file: land plus improvement equals total.

Limits

What this is, and is not

Please read

This is a comparable-sales opinion of value, not a certified appraisal, and it is not a mortgage or lending document. It is produced from the ABOR feed, Williamson CAD records and ALEX's own adjustment engine, run automatically with no comparable selected by hand. Three comparables is the minimum from which a range can honestly be quoted — the set here is tight and consistent, but it is three sales, and a market this thin deserves that said plainly rather than buried.