Comparable-sales valuation · 16 September 2026
Serenada West Sec 4 · Georgetown, Texas 78628 · Williamson County · MLS 3434023
Prepared by Diane Hart Alexander, MBA, MHA, Designated Broker · for Gary C. Blackburn
Asking price
Listed 7 August 2026 at $559,000 and reduced to $540,000. Thirteen days on market.
The bars run from zero, so the cut reads at its true size: 3.4% is a modest reduction, and a chart with a cropped baseline would make it look like a collapse. The hatched cap on the original bar is the $19,000 that came off.
What this says
Three closed sales inside Serenada West, each adjusted to this property across 66 factors and to today's market, place it at $523,702. That is a net figure — what a seller keeps after covering buyer closing costs and repair credits — which is the basis every number on this page uses.
The $540,000 list is 3.1% above that, and inside the supported range. This is not a report saying the house is mispriced; it is a report saying where the evidence sits and how firmly.
Where everything is
All three comparables lie within half a mile, inside the same subdivision. Click any red marker to jump to that sale in the table below.
Rings mark quarter-mile, half-mile and one-mile from the subject. The two active listings are both around 22% larger than this house, past the size tolerance, so neither is a comparable — but they are what a buyer looking at this property will also be seeing.
One note on the competition set: 300 W Sequoia Spur is currently counted twice — once at its $509,999 asking price and once at $2,700, which is a monthly rent. A lease is not a sale competitor. It was excluded on size either way, so it did not affect the valuation, and the duplicate is recorded as a defect to fix.
How firm is it
Every figure below is computed from this property's own comparable set. Plain meaning first; the technical definition sits beneath each one.
The evidence
| Address | Closed | Close price | Net | Living area | Beds | Built | Adjustment | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4301 Verde Vis | 27 May 2026 | $545,000 | $544,200 | 2,052 sf | 3 | 1982 | +$9,614 | $553,814 |
| 609 Esparada Dr | 29 Jan 2026 | $482,500 | $482,500 | 2,086 sf | 3 | 1984 | +$14,557 | $497,057 |
| 303 Sequoia Spur | 16 Jun 2026 | $550,000 | $549,700 | 2,398 sf | 3 | 1979 | −$25,998 | $523,702 |
| Median of the three adjusted values — range $497,057 to $553,814, spread 10.8% | $523,702 | |||||||
Adjustments apply to net sale price — close price less seller-paid buyer closing costs and seller repairs — which is why the arithmetic runs off the Net column. Adjusted value = net + adjustment, and the indicated value is their median.
A sale more than ±20% from the asking price is not a comparable. The rule is absolute and applies before any other test. On a $540,000 list that band is $432,000 to $648,000, measured on net.
| MLS | Close | Net | From list | Why it would have hurt |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5450671 | $720,000 | $720,000 | +33% | Needed a −$281,477 adjustment, 39% of its own sale price, to be usable at all |
| 1459502 | $442,500 | $419,500 | −22% | $23,000 of seller-paid closing costs put the net below the band |
Removing them tightened the result rather than weakening it: the spread across the comparables fell from 24.5% to 10.8%, back-test error from 7.3% to 6.2%, and the search settled on closer matches. No comparable was drawn from an age-restricted community, none carries an HOA this property does not have, and none is this property's own prior sale.
The property
Land is priced at this parcel's own Williamson CAD rate — $124,254 across 23,087 square feet, or $5.38 per square foot — not a county average and not a third-party record. The county roll reconciles for every year on file: land plus improvement equals total.
Limits
This is a comparable-sales opinion of value, not a certified appraisal, and it is not a mortgage or lending document. It is produced from the ABOR feed, Williamson CAD records and ALEX's own adjustment engine, run automatically with no comparable selected by hand. Three comparables is the minimum from which a range can honestly be quoted — the set here is tight and consistent, but it is three sales, and a market this thin deserves that said plainly rather than buried.