ALEX · Alexander Tiffany Southwest, LLC – ALEX Companies

109 Leon Loop

Liberty Hill, TX 78642
MLS # 8502031
Prepared for —
Prepared by Diane Hart Alexander
Expired Property Seller Model
Version 14.503
Wednesday, October 28, 2026 · 9:15 PM CDT
Privileged & Confidential For use by ALEX Agents and Clients only. Sharing this report or its information with any third party without ALEX’s express written consent is prohibited and subjects the disclosing party to legal action. ALEX Model · Patent Pending

Summary

This valuation is for 109 Leon Loop in Santa Rita Ranch South, Liberty Hill, TX. It was listed at $649,900 and was on the market for 127 days before the listing expired on 10/20/2026. We compared it with the five recent sales of homes most like it. Our recommended list price is $599,900. We think it is worth between $581,131 and $640,182, which is 10.6% to 1.5% below its last asking price.

ALEX Model valuation

ALEX Model valuation$604,859the weighted average of five sales
Lowest$581,131lowest value from one sale
Median$606,878half the weight above, half below
Highest$640,182highest value from one sale
$550,000 $600,000 $650,000 $700,000 ALEX Model valuation $604,859 $606,878 216 Rieti 25.7% weight 100% · 96% · 99% $582,459 117 Rosa 25.4% weight 100% · 96% · 99% $622,578 504 Leon 23.6% weight 100% · 97% · 90% $581,131 104 Leon 13.4% weight 100% · 97% · 53% $640,182 109 Mark 11.8% weight 100% · 100% · 43%

Each bar is one sale’s value after every Step 2 stage (2.1–2.9). Beneath it: its weight (2.13), then how closely it matches this home on proximity · similarity · recency (2.10–2.12, 100% = identical). Darker bars count for more. The gold line is the ALEX Model valuation: each sale’s value counted by its weight. Sales most like the home count for more, whether ALEX or the agent selected them.

The ALEX Model How the sales were chosen (Step 1), how each sale became a value (Step 2) and how the two models differ, for this valuation: Supplement A · The ALEX Model alex-companies.com/valuations/seller-expired/109-leon-loop-liberty-hill-tx-alex-model.html. The method, its measured accuracy and the technical reference: alex-companies.com/real-estate/alex-model/.

The property

Original list price$739,900
Listing date6/15/2026
Reduced list price$719,900
Date reduced7/3/2026
Raised list price1$724,900
Date raised7/22/2026
Reduced list price$714,900
Date reduced7/24/2026
Reduced list price$699,900
Date reduced8/20/2026
Reduced list price$649,900
Date reduced9/22/2026
Last list price$649,900
WCAD value 2026$643,869
Last list price per SF$196
Days on market127
StatusExpired
Date expired10/20/2026
TypeSingle Family
Year built2018
Living area3,316 SF
Lot0.20 acres
Bedrooms4
Baths3.1
StoriesTwo
Garage2-car
SubdivisionSanta Rita Ranch South
HOA dues$116 monthly
School districtLiberty Hill ISD
Elementary schoolSanta Rita Elementary
Tax rate2.2195%
Property tax2$14,290
FEMA flood zone3X · minimal risk
FIRM panel48491C0275E · 9/26/2008

1 Price raised. On 7/22/2026 the list price was raised from $719,900 to $724,900 (+0.7%).

2 Estimated taxes. WCAD 2026 value $643,869 × tax rate 2.219465% = $14,290 a year, with no exemptions.

3 Flood zone. Zone X: minimal risk (area of minimal flood hazard). Source: FEMA National Flood Hazard Layer (Flood Insurance Rate Map), hazards.fema.gov, read 10/28/2026 at the listing’s map point. A map reading, not a flood zone determination; a lender orders one for a loan.

Where it is

Map of 109 Leon Loop and its comparable sales
This homeSold #1 · 216 Rieti PkwySold #2 · 117 Rosa DrSold #3 · 504 Leon LoopSold #4 · 104 Leon LoopSold #5 · 109 Mark WayFor sale now in this area · 17

Property values

ALEX Model Standard Arithmetic Model $500,000 $600,000 $700,000 $800,000 $581,131 $566,233 Low $599,900 Recommendedlist price $604,859 $629,864 Average $606,878 $581,445 Median $640,182 $716,137 High ALEX vs Arithmetic +$14,898 +2.6% ALEX vs Arithmetic −$25,005 -4.0% ALEX vs Arithmetic +$25,433 +4.4% ALEX vs Arithmetic −$75,955 -10.6% List price history and tax value List price WCAD 2026 tax value $500,000 $600,000 $700,000 $800,000 $739,900 Original list $719,900 Reduced 1 $724,900 Raised 1 $714,900 Reduced 2 $699,900 Reduced 3 $649,900 Last list $643,869 2026 tax value

Listing strategy

Buyer incentives · a cash credit at close, for example $10,000

Our recommended list price is $599,900. A cash credit at close the buyer can use for cash, closing costs or a rate buydown, offered three ways. The amount is yours to set; this example uses $10,000. Each bold figure is what you keep after the credit, before commissions and other selling costs; beneath it, the sale price and the share of the list price it sells at.

OptionList priceChance of sellingvs the average listing Bestupper quartileAveragemedianWorselower quartile
Built into the price Recommended $599,900+5.4 pts$589,900$577,700$567,400
Just baked into price to help sell faster and be more competitive.sale $599,900
100.0% of list
sale $587,700
98.0% of list
sale $577,400
96.2% of list
Add all of it to the list price Not recommended $609,900+4.5 pts$598,300$585,900$575,400
Recommended list + $10,000.sale $608,300
99.7% of list
sale $595,900
97.7% of list
sale $585,400
96.0% of list
Split it $604,900+5.0 pts$594,000$581,700$571,300
Increase list by $5,000 while offering a $10,000 credit.sale $604,000
99.9% of list
sale $591,700
97.8% of list
sale $581,300
96.1% of list
  • Best, Average and Worse. For the recommended price: the upper quartile, median and lower quartile of close price ÷ final list price for the 92 resale single family sales in ZIP 78642 listed at $552,000 to $747,000, closed 9/25/2025 to 9/8/2026, on the market at least 15 days (ALEX’s negotiation model, on its weighted set of 59, measures a median of 98.1%).
  • Higher list prices. A home listed further above its value closes at a smaller share of its list price. Across 2,977 Williamson County, $600k to $1M listings, the median close ÷ list is 97.2% at $599,900, 97.1% at $604,900 and 96.9% at $609,900. Each higher option’s three ratios are lowered by that difference from the recommended price.
  • Chance of selling. How many more of every 100 similar listings at that price sold than of the average listing (Williamson County, $600k to $1M).
  • Sale price. Sale price = list price × that ratio, rounded to $100.
  • Appraisal. A higher list price must still appraise for a buyer with a loan.
  • Seller-paid closing costs. Sellers of similar homes here who paid buyer closing costs paid a median of $11,197 (33 sales).

This is a comparable-sales opinion of value. It is not a certified appraisal and not a mortgage or lending document. Sale prices are net of seller-paid closing costs and buyer-requested repairs, adjusted to today with ALEX’s index. Sale and listing data: ABOR MLS via secure APIs, as of October 28, 2026, 9:00 PM CDT. Tax values: the county appraisal district where available. ALEX Companies · Licensed by the Texas Real Estate Commission · Broker: Alexander Tiffany Southwest, LLC, #565194-BB · Diane Hart Alexander, Designated Broker, #574877-B.

Detailed comparable sale valuations

109 LeonThis homeMLS # 8502031216 RietiSale 1MLS # 9612655117 RosaSale 2MLS # 9311538504 LeonSale 3MLS # 2515741104 LeonSale 4MLS # 4804904109 MarkSale 5MLS # 5866339
Summary
Weight—25.7%25.4%23.6%13.4%11.8%
  Proximity match—100%100%100%100%100%
  Similarity match—96%96%97%97%100%
  Recency match—99%99%90%53%43%
2.1 · Closed price—$660,000$640,000$625,000$660,000$733,000
SF3,316 SF3,827 SF3,748 SF2,894 SF3,764 SF3,406 SF
$/SF—$172$171$216$175$215
Standard Arithmetic Model—$571,874$566,233$716,137$581,445$713,631
2.2 · Buyer closing costs paid by seller—−$9,000−$3,000−$15,000——
2.3 · Buyer required repairs paid by seller————−$6,000—
2.4 · Time adjustment—−$11,549−$22,464−$10,893−$43,304−$57,075
2.5 · ALEX Model Changes—+$1,256−$4,445−$7,791−$1,013−$29,222
2.6 · ALEX Agent Changes——————
2.7 · Additional Agent Changes——————
2.8 · SF adjustment—−$85,550−$70,320+$86,225−$72,566−$17,088
2.9 · Size correction—+$51,721+$42,688−$54,963+$44,014+$10,567
ALEX Model valuation—$606,878$582,459$622,578$581,131$640,182
1 · Comparable sale selection
Distance—0.38 mi N0.26 mi NNW0.07 mi WNW0.03 mi SE0.06 mi NNW
SubdivisionSantaSantaSantaSantaSantaSanta
Living area3,316 SF3,827 SF3,748 SF2,894 SF3,764 SF3,406 SF
Bedrooms455454
Bathrooms3.14.14.12.143.1
Year built201820202020201820192018
Lot area8,830 SF7,492 SF9,923 SF7,357 SF7,488 SF7,523 SF
Garage2-car2-car2-car3-car3-car2-car
LevelsTwoTwoTwoTwoTwoTwo
2.1 · Closed price
Listing date06/15/2608/30/2506/03/2610/20/2502/03/2408/24/24
Close dateExpired08/14/2607/17/2601/05/2601/13/2511/08/24
Days on market12731683228549
List price$649,900$655,999$660,000$625,000$670,000$735,000
Sale price—$660,000$640,000$625,000$660,000$733,000
2.2 · Buyer closing costs paid by seller
Closing costs—−$9,000−$3,000−$15,000——
Section 3 subtotal—−$9,000−$3,000−$15,000——
2.3 · Buyer required repairs paid by seller
Repairs in contract————−$6,000—
Repairs after inspection——————
Repairs after appraisal——————
Section 4 subtotal————−$6,000—
2.4 · Time adjustment
Months from sale to today—2 months3 months9 months21 months23 months
Section 5 subtotal—−$11,549−$22,464−$10,893−$43,304−$57,075
2.5 · ALEX Model Changes and 2.6 · ALEX Agent Changes
Age—−$2,450−$2,344—−$2,336−$2,531
Back yard——————
Bedroom count——————
Casita——————
Corner lot——+$3,651———
Cul-de-sac——————
Deck——————
Exterior condition——————
Fence—+$6,003————
Fireplace————+$7,067—
Flood plain——————
Flooring——−$10,021—−$9,986−$10,821
Foundation——————
Front yard——————
Full bath—−$16,967−$16,230+$15,777−$16,174—
Full bath 2——————
Full bath 3——————
Garage——−$7,497−$14,575−$14,942—
Guest suite————+$5,993—
Half bath————+$7,690—
Interior condition—$0+$18,295+$32,356+$18,231+$19,756
Interior lighting——————
Interior quality——————
Lot size—+$8,177−$5,560+$8,445+$7,822+$8,238
Open floor plan—+$11,086+$10,605——+$11,451
Outbuilding——————
Outdoor kitchen——————
Patio—−$4,593−$4,393−$4,271−$4,378−$4,744
Pool———−$45,523—−$50,571
Primary bath——————
Primary bedroom on main——+$9,049———
Septic——————
Solar——————
Stories——————
Study office——————
Two-story great room——————
Updated or remodeled——————
View——————
Waterfront——————
Well——————
2.5 and 2.6 subtotal—+$1,256−$4,445−$7,791−$1,013−$29,222
2.7 · Additional Agent Changes
Interior condition (from showing)
 
 
 
 
2.7 subtotal——————
2.8 · SF adjustment
Section 8 subtotal—−$85,550−$70,320+$86,225−$72,566−$17,088
2.9 · Size correction
Section 9 subtotal—+$51,721+$42,688−$54,963+$44,014+$10,567
Questions about this report? Talk it over with Diane Hart Alexander, Designated Broker · +1 713.591.9902 · [email protected]. The data is current as of October 28, 2026.