321 Angus Drive
The ALEX Model is unique in both comparable selection and precision valuation.
Summary
| The ALEX Model against | Other | ALEX | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Austin MLS CMA variables used | 13 | 45 | 32 more |
| Standard Arithmetic Model | $1,007,050 | $1,055,956 | ALEX $48,906 higher (4.9%) |
| Zillow Zestimate | $1,141,000 | $1,055,956 | ALEX $85,044 lower |
| WCAD market value, 2026 | $957,600 | $1,055,956 | ALEX $98,356 higher |
| ALEX Confidence Level, this valuation | 90.5% | Very High |
Step 1 · Comparable sale selection
| Stage | What it keeps | Sales left | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.1 | Closed sales in the market area that are fair evidenceBank-owned, short, auction, HUD, corporate and probate sales, fair or poor condition and flood-zone sales are excluded. | 50 | |
| 1.2 | In this home's subdivision | 25 | |
| 1.3 | Same school districtRemoved 3. Checked against the official district map. | 22 | |
| 1.4 | Same elementary schoolChecked against the official attendance-zone map. MLS corrected: 321 Angus (MLS Patsy Sommer, map Sommer); 204 Broken Arrow (MLS Patsy Sommer, map Sommer); 305 Stiles (MLS Patsy Sommer, map Sommer); 401 Bluff View (MLS Patsy Sommer, map Sommer); 301 Raging River (MLS Patsy Sommer, map Sommer); 401 Bluff Point (MLS Patsy Sommer, map Sommer). | 22 | |
| 1.5 | The same kind of homeRemoved: stories 1, sale-to-list 1. | 20 | |
| 1.6 | Searched: Ranch at Brushy Creek, all phases and sectionsThis home's subdivision only, sales back to August 2022 when needed. | 16 | |
| 1.7 | Within 25% of this home's size, sold in the last 11 months | 6 |
Step 2 · Similarity
Each sale is measured against this home on seven measures together. Sales close enough on all seven are used, and the closer a sale, the more it counts (3.10).
| Stage | What it keeps | Sales left | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.1 | Measure of similarity – Living area (log scale) · counts in 3.10 Weight (similarity) | ||
| 2.2 | Measure of similarity – Year built · counts in 3.10 Weight (similarity) | ||
| 2.3 | Measure of similarity – Lot size (log scale) · counts in 3.10 Weight (similarity) | ||
| 2.4 | Measure of similarity – Distance from this home (miles) · counts in 3.10 Weight (proximity) | ||
| 2.5 | Measure of similarity – Months since the sale · counts in 3.10 Weight (recency) | ||
| 2.6 | Measure of similarity – Bedrooms · counts in 3.10 Weight (similarity) | ||
| 2.7 | Measure of similarity – Bathrooms · counts in 3.10 Weight (similarity)Sales close enough on all seven measures together. | 5 | |
| 2.8 | Comparable sales used | 5 |
Step 3 · Valuation
204 Broken Arrow, the sale that counts most, stage by stage. Every sale goes through the same stages; each one’s figures are in Detailed comparable sale valuations.
| Stage | What it does | Change | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3.1 | Closed priceWhat the sale closed for, as recorded in the MLS | $1,015,000 | |
| 3.2 | Buyer closing costs paid by sellerThe sale price less the buyer’s closing costs the seller paid, as recorded in the MLS | −$2,000 | $1,013,000 |
| 3.3 | Buyer required repairs paid by sellerLess the repairs the seller paid at the buyer’s request, as recorded in the MLS | none | $1,013,000 |
| 3.4 | Time adjustmentBrought to today with ALEX’s index | −$43,374 | $969,626 |
| 3.5 | ALEX Model ChangesEach difference from this home — bathrooms, garage, lot size, view, age and the rest — priced at what ABOR closed sales in the same price range show the market pays | +$37,632 | $1,007,258 |
| 3.6 | ALEX Agent ChangesAny ALEX line the agent revised, at the agent’s figure | none | $1,007,258 |
| 3.7 | Additional Agent ChangesAny line the agent added | none | $1,007,258 |
| 3.8 | SF adjustmentThe adjusted price per SF times this home’s SF | −$83,565 | $923,693 |
| 3.9 | Size correctionLarger homes sell for less per SF, as measured on the market | +$43,639 | $967,332 |
| Value from this sale | $967,332 | ||
| 3.10 | WeightHow much this sale counts in the ALEX Model valuation. Sales most like the home count for more, whether ALEX or the agent selected them. How closely it matches on the Step 2 measures, 100% = identical: proximity 100%, similarity 85%, recency 94% | 28.0% | |
| 3.11 | ALEX valuationThe weighted average of the sales, with the lowest, median and highest beside it | $1,055,956 |
Variables used: ALEX Model and Austin MLS CMA
The ALEX Model uses 45 variables in this valuation, 32 more than the 13 adjustments in the Austin MLS CMA, which leaves the choice of sales to the realtor and makes no time adjustment. The CMA counts Subdivision among its 10 features; the ALEX Model uses it to choose the sales (1.2). Every ALEX feature adjustment is priced at what ABOR closed sales show the market pays. Each variable counts once in each step it is used in. 13 of the feature adjustments changed at least one sale’s value here. 16 more feature lines were tested on ABOR sales in this price range, showed no measurable price difference, carry $0 and are not counted. Lines an agent adds (3.6–3.7) are not counted.
How the two models differ
| #1 | 204 Broken Arrow Dr | 20.0% | $930,793 | |
| #2 | 305 Stiles Cv | 20.0% | $970,218 | |
| #3 | 401 Bluff View Rd | 20.0% | $1,044,350 | |
| #4 | 301 Raging River Rd | 20.0% | $1,161,389 | |
| #5 | 401 Bluff Point Bnd | 20.0% | $928,500 |
| #1 | 204 Broken Arrow Dr | 28.0% | $967,332 | |
| #2 | 305 Stiles Cv | 26.8% | $1,066,701 | |
| #3 | 401 Bluff View Rd | 17.2% | $1,045,142 | |
| #4 | 301 Raging River Rd | 14.0% | $1,216,443 | |
| #5 | 401 Bluff Point Bnd | 14.0% | $1,065,433 |
Two models, the same sales
| Lowest | Average | Median | Highest | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALEX Model | $967,332 | $1,055,956 | $1,065,433 | $1,216,443 |
| Standard Arithmetic Model | $928,500 | $1,007,050 | $970,218 | $1,161,389 |
The Standard Arithmetic Model is each sale’s price per SF times this home’s 3,714 SF, every sale counted equally, nothing adjusted. The ALEX Model nets out seller concessions, brings each sale to today, adjusts it for every measured difference, corrects for size and weights it by how closely it matches. Here the ALEX Model is $48,906 (4.9%) higher.
How accurate it is
This valuation: 5 of its comparable sales, each valued from the others. Confidence level is 100% minus the forecast standard deviation; very high at a confidence level of 90% or above; high at 70% to 89%.
Bringing each sale to today
| Sale | Sold | Market since | Adjustment |
|---|---|---|---|
| 204 Broken Arrow | 06/26 | -4.3% | −$43,374 |
| 305 Stiles | 08/26 | -1.9% | −$18,979 |
| 401 Bluff View | 10/26 | +0.0% | — |
| 301 Raging River | 03/26 | -3.3% | −$47,416 |
| 401 Bluff Point | 12/25 | -2.1% | −$23,942 |
ALEX’s index, blended toward the Austin area where county sales are thin: built from homes that sold more than once, so a change in what sold does not read as a change in prices.
Other estimates of this home
| Source | Estimate | vs ALEX |
|---|---|---|
| ALEX valuation | $1,055,956 | — |
| Zillow Zestimate | $1,141,000 | +8.1% |
| WCAD market value, 2026 | $957,600 | -9.3% |
Automated estimates use public records and broad statistics; they do not see this home’s comparable sales or their concessions. A county value is set for taxes as of January 1.
This is a comparable-sales opinion of value. It is not a certified appraisal and not a mortgage or lending document. Sale prices are net of seller-paid closing costs and buyer-requested repairs, adjusted to today with ALEX’s index. Sale and listing data: ABOR MLS via secure APIs, as of October 29, 2026, 1:45 PM CDT. Tax values: the county appraisal district where available. ALEX Companies · Licensed by the Texas Real Estate Commission · Broker: Alexander Tiffany Southwest, LLC, #565194-BB · Diane Hart Alexander, Designated Broker, #574877-B.