ALEX · Executive Summary

1108 Dalea Blf, Round Rock

Comparable-sales valuation · Expired Property Seller Model · Williamson County

Prepared for Raymond Christopher & Dana Lynn SmythPrepared by Diane Hart Alexander, MBA, MHA, Designated BrokerSummary revised October 9, 2026, 10:33 AM CDTReport version 14.265

ALEX AI Statistical Model

ALEX’s statistical model uses five comparable sales. Each sale’s adjusted price is carried to this home’s 3,435 SF using the size effect measured from 57 recent sales in the Forest Creek subdivision family in Round Rock. Each sale is then weighted by how closely it matches this home on size, age, lot, rooms, distance and date of sale. The average and median are weighted; the minimum and maximum are the lowest and highest single sale.

Traditional Arithmetic Model

The same five sales with the same adjustments, each scaled to this home’s size at its own price per SF and counted equally. Section 02 explains how the two rows differ.

What the two rows share. Both rows start from the same five sales and carry the same adjustments:

• the market trend from each sale’s date to today;
• the feature adjustments ALEX calculated;
• the changes and additions Diane made after comparing each sold home with this property;
• scaling to this home’s size at each sale’s own price per SF.

Where they differ. The statistical model makes two further corrections. First, it applies a size adjustment measured from 57 recent sales in the Forest Creek subdivision family in Round Rock, because price per SF falls as homes get larger. Second, it gives each sale a weight based on how closely it matches this home, where the traditional row counts every sale equally. The “Size adjustment” and “Final valuation” tables below show both corrections sale by sale, and the detailed report sets out the full method.

Compared on the average alone, ALEX’s valuation is lower than the traditional arithmetic figure. The difference is shown below in dollars and as a percentage of the traditional average.

Slotting against competitors

26 competing homes for sale in the Forest Creek family, from the highest list price to the lowest. The highlighted row is this home at the recommended list price.

CDOM is cumulative days on market. Each address opens the listing on alex.realestate.

Four figures set the list price, among them the arithmetic based valuation, the lower of the arithmetic average and median. The highest price comes from how 7,619 similar listings in Williamson County, $400k to $600k actually sold, allowing for how accurate this valuation has proven to be. The price to sell fast is 5% below the recommended list price. None is a chosen spread.

What the market has already said: this listing asked $669,900 for 21 days and $639,999 for 40 days, and expired on 09/30/26 without a sale. The earliest it can be listed again is 10/30/26, 30 days after it terminated. The detailed report sets out the method, its evidence and its limits.

Relaunching after a listing that did not sell. Of expired listings that relaunched with a new brokerage, those cut 3% to 10% sold within 180 days 52% of the time (1,852 relaunches), against 43% at the same price and 41% raised. The middle relaunch was 3.3% below the old price and closed at 91.1% of it. The recommended $614,900 is 3.9% below the failed $639,999. Relaunches in December to February sold best (53%); June to August sold worst (42%). These figures describe what happened; they do not prove the price or the timing caused the sale.

How similar listings sold at these prices. At the fast price ($584,000), closed at about 97.1% of the list price. At the valuation ($592,000), closed at about 96.8% of the list price. At the top ($639,500), closed at about 94.7% of the list price. The chance of selling is not stated: in this county and price range it did not hold up when tested on later listings.

The price starts at the recommended list price, $614,900.

How each line is set. Concessions are the measured share sellers here paid toward buyers’ costs. The title premium is the Texas promulgated basic premium for a policy at the sale price. Taxes prorate the year’s bill to the closing date. Commissions, the payoff and other costs are as entered, and a blank is never counted as zero. The title company’s settlement statement is the figure that governs.

Offers and counters. Judge every offer by what it nets you. That is its price less the closing costs and repair credits it asks you to pay.

• A net of at least $590,427 is at or above the valuation.
• $582,448 to $590,426 is inside the error band. Counter toward the price at the valuation, in smaller steps each round.
• Below $582,448 is below the evidence.

A credit lowers your net by its full amount. Where a buyer needs one, raising the price by the same amount keeps your net, within what the buyer’s loan and the appraisal allow.

All five are in Forest Ridge, this house’s own subdivision. In each table the first column is this house and each column after it is one comparable sale. Dollar amounts are rounded to the nearest dollar, and each total is the sum of the lines shown above it.

Scaling to 3,435 SF. Every home that sold is smaller than this one. To compare them fairly, each sale’s price is first restated at this home’s size, using the sale’s own price per SF. For example, 3305 Starlight Vis has 2,824 SF. Its price after the time adjustment and all feature adjustments, including any made by Diane, is $550,413. Restated at this home’s size: $550,413 × 3,435 ÷ 2,824 = $669,500. The scaling line for 3305 Starlight Vis is the difference, +$119,087.

Statistical size adjustment. Scaling at a sale’s own price per SF assumes that price per SF stays the same as size changes. It does not. Smaller homes usually sell for more per SF than larger ones. Every home has a kitchen, bathrooms and a lot, and those cost about the same whatever its size. Scaling alone therefore overstates the value of a sale smaller than this home and understates the value of a larger one. Five sales are too few to measure reliably how price per SF changes with size, so ALEX measured it from 57 sales of the last 24 months in the Forest Creek subdivision family in Round Rock, holding age, lot, rooms and date of sale constant, and applies that correction to each sale. For 3305 Starlight Vis the statistical size adjustment is −$90,603, so its total size adjustment is +$28,484. The further a sale’s size is from this home’s, the larger the correction.