109 Leon Loop
The ALEX Model is unique in both comparable selection and precision valuation.
Summary
| The ALEX Model against | Other | ALEX | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Austin MLS CMA variables used | 13 | 49 | 36 more |
| Standard Arithmetic Model | $629,864 | $607,690 | ALEX $22,174 lower (3.5%) |
| Zillow Zestimate | $632,300 | $607,690 | ALEX $24,610 lower |
| HouseCanary | $688,249 | $607,690 | ALEX $80,559 lower |
| WCAD market value, 2026 | $643,869 | $607,690 | ALEX $36,179 lower |
| ALEX Confidence Level, this valuation | 94.1% | Very High |
Step 1 · Comparable sale selection
| Stage | What it keeps | Sales left | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.1 | Closed sales in the market area that are fair evidenceBank-owned, short, auction, HUD, corporate and probate sales, fair or poor condition and flood-zone sales are excluded. | 179 | |
| 1.2 | In this home's subdivision | 7 | |
| 1.3 | Same school districtChecked against the official district map. | 7 | |
| 1.4 | Same elementary schoolChecked against the official attendance-zone map. | 7 | |
| 1.5 | The same kind of homeRemoved: stories 1, waterfront 1. | 5 | |
| 1.6 | Searched: Santa Rita Ranch SouthThis home's subdivision only, sales back to August 2022 when needed. | 5 | |
| 1.7 | Within 25% of this home's size, sold in the last 24 months | 5 |
Step 2 · Similarity
Each sale is measured against this home on seven measures together. Sales close enough on all seven are used, and the closer a sale, the more it counts (3.10).
| Stage | What it keeps | Sales left | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.1 | Measure of similarity – Living area (log scale) · counts in 3.10 Weight (similarity) | ||
| 2.2 | Measure of similarity – Year built · counts in 3.10 Weight (similarity) | ||
| 2.3 | Measure of similarity – Lot size (log scale) · counts in 3.10 Weight (similarity) | ||
| 2.4 | Measure of similarity – Distance from this home (miles) · counts in 3.10 Weight (proximity) | ||
| 2.5 | Measure of similarity – Months since the sale · counts in 3.10 Weight (recency) | ||
| 2.6 | Measure of similarity – Bedrooms · counts in 3.10 Weight (similarity) | ||
| 2.7 | Measure of similarity – Bathrooms · counts in 3.10 Weight (similarity)Sales close enough on all seven measures together. | 5 | |
| 2.8 | Comparable sales used | 5 |
Step 3 · Valuation
216 Rieti, the sale that counts most, stage by stage. Every sale goes through the same stages; each one’s figures are in Detailed comparable sale valuations.
| Stage | What it does | Change | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3.1 | Closed priceWhat the sale closed for, as recorded in the MLS | $660,000 | |
| 3.2 | Buyer closing costs paid by sellerThe sale price less the buyer’s closing costs the seller paid, as recorded in the MLS | −$9,000 | $651,000 |
| 3.3 | Buyer required repairs paid by sellerLess the repairs the seller paid at the buyer’s request, as recorded in the MLS | none | $651,000 |
| 3.4 | Time adjustmentBrought to today with ALEX’s index | −$12,392 | $638,608 |
| 3.5 | ALEX Model ChangesEach difference from this home — bathrooms, garage, lot size, view, age and the rest — priced at what ABOR closed sales in the same price range show the market pays | +$1,254 | $639,862 |
| 3.6 | ALEX Agent ChangesAny ALEX line the agent revised, at the agent’s figure | none | $639,862 |
| 3.7 | Additional Agent ChangesAny line the agent added | none | $639,862 |
| 3.8 | SF adjustmentThe adjusted price per SF times this home’s SF | −$85,438 | $554,424 |
| 3.9 | Size correctionLarger homes sell for less per SF, as measured on the market | +$51,653 | $606,077 |
| Value from this sale | $606,077 | ||
| 3.10 | WeightHow much this sale counts in the ALEX Model valuation. Sales most like the home count for more, whether ALEX or the agent selected them. How closely it matches on the Step 2 measures, 100% = identical: proximity 100%, similarity 96%, recency 99% | 25.7% | |
| 3.11 | ALEX valuationThe weighted average of the sales, with the lowest, median and highest beside it | $607,690 |
Variables used: ALEX Model and Austin MLS CMA
The ALEX Model uses 49 variables in this valuation, 36 more than the 13 adjustments in the Austin MLS CMA, which leaves the choice of sales to the realtor and makes no time adjustment. The CMA counts Subdivision among its 10 features; the ALEX Model uses it to choose the sales (1.2). Every ALEX feature adjustment is priced at what ABOR closed sales show the market pays. Each variable counts once in each step it is used in. 16 of the feature adjustments changed at least one sale’s value here. 11 more feature lines were tested on ABOR sales in this price range, showed no measurable price difference, carry $0 and are not counted. Lines an agent adds (3.6–3.7) are not counted.
How the two models differ
| #1 | 216 Rieti Pkwy | 20.0% | $571,874 | |
| #2 | 117 Rosa Dr | 20.0% | $566,233 | |
| #3 | 504 Leon Loop | 20.0% | $716,137 | |
| #4 | 104 Leon Loop | 20.0% | $581,445 | |
| #5 | 109 Mark Way | 20.0% | $713,631 |
| #1 | 216 Rieti Pkwy | 25.7% | $606,077 | |
| #2 | 117 Rosa Dr | 25.4% | $581,690 | |
| #3 | 504 Leon Loop | 23.6% | $631,848 | |
| #4 | 104 Leon Loop | 13.5% | $589,785 | |
| #5 | 109 Mark Way | 11.8% | $639,336 |
Two models, the same sales
| Lowest | Average | Median | Highest | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALEX Model | $581,690 | $607,690 | $606,077 | $639,336 |
| Standard Arithmetic Model | $566,233 | $629,864 | $581,445 | $716,137 |
The Standard Arithmetic Model is each sale’s price per SF times this home’s 3,316 SF, every sale counted equally, nothing adjusted. The ALEX Model nets out seller concessions, brings each sale to today, adjusts it for every measured difference, corrects for size and weights it by how closely it matches. Here the ALEX Model is $22,174 (3.5%) lower.
How accurate it is
This valuation: 5 of its comparable sales, each valued from the others. Confidence level is 100% minus the forecast standard deviation; very high at a confidence level of 90% or above; high at 70% to 89%.
Bringing each sale to today
| Sale | Sold | Market since | Adjustment |
|---|---|---|---|
| 216 Rieti | 08/26 | -1.9% | −$12,392 |
| 117 Rosa | 07/26 | -3.7% | −$23,273 |
| 504 Leon | 01/26 | -1.9% | −$11,683 |
| 104 Leon | 01/25 | -6.7% | −$44,108 |
| 109 Mark | 11/24 | -7.9% | −$57,966 |
ALEX’s index, blended toward the Austin area where county sales are thin: built from homes that sold more than once, so a change in what sold does not read as a change in prices.
Other estimates of this home
| Source | Estimate | vs ALEX |
|---|---|---|
| ALEX valuation | $607,690 | — |
| Zillow Zestimate | $632,300 | +4.0% |
| HouseCanary | $688,249 | +13.3% |
| WCAD market value, 2026 | $643,869 | +6.0% |
Automated estimates use public records and broad statistics; they do not see this home’s comparable sales or their concessions. A county value is set for taxes as of January 1.
Buyer incentives · how the figures are measured
The report’s Listing strategy table shows what you keep at three list prices with a cash credit at close, each at Best, Average and Worse. Every figure is measured; nothing is typed in.
| Step | What it is | How it is measured | This home |
|---|---|---|---|
| I.1 | Cash credit at close | An example amount; the seller sets the real one. The buyer can use it for cash, closing costs or a rate buydown. | $10,000 |
| I.2 | Three list prices | The recommended list price; it plus half the credit (Split it); it plus the whole credit (Add all of it). | $599,900 $604,900 $609,900 |
| I.3 | Best, Average, Worse | At the recommended price: the upper quartile, median and lower quartile of close price ÷ final list price for 92 resale sales in ZIP 78642 listed at $552,000 to $747,000, closed 9/25/2025 to 9/8/2026, on the market at least 15 days. | 100.0% 98.0% 96.2% |
| I.4 | Higher list prices | ALEX’s seller response curve: the median close ÷ list of 2,977 Williamson County, $600k to $1M listings, by how far each was listed above or below its value (table built 2026-10-08). A higher option’s three ratios are the recommended price’s, lowered by the curve’s difference between the two prices; the spread between Best and Worse is kept. | 97.3% 97.1% 97.0% |
| I.5 | Chance of selling | From the same curve: how many more of every 100 similar listings at that price sold than of the average listing, in percentage points (the absolute share did not pass its out-of-time test here). | +5.6 pts +5.2 pts +4.8 pts |
| I.6 | Stability rule | A curve figure is used only when it passed its out-of-time test and similar pools (the county band over 12 months, the whole county, the city) agree with it. Otherwise it is not used and the table says so. | used |
| I.7 | Sale price and what you keep | Sale price = list price × ratio, rounded to $100. What you keep = sale price less the credit, before commissions and other selling costs. | $577,700 recommended, Average |
| I.8 | Not estimated: days on market | The curve’s days to a contract (24 to 45 days at the recommended price across similar pools) did not pass its stability rule, and Best, Average and Worse are a spread of outcomes, not separate groups of listings, so they have no days of their own; no days figure is given. | — |
Limits: the curve is measured on listings across the county price band, not this ZIP alone, and its close ÷ list is the median; keeping the Best to Worse spread at a higher price is an assumption. A higher list price must still appraise for a buyer with a loan.
This is a comparable-sales opinion of value. It is not a certified appraisal and not a mortgage or lending document. Sale prices are net of seller-paid closing costs and buyer-requested repairs, adjusted to today with ALEX’s index. Sale and listing data: ABOR MLS via secure APIs, as of October 29, 2026, 12:00 PM CDT. Tax values: the county appraisal district where available. ALEX Companies · Licensed by the Texas Real Estate Commission · Broker: Alexander Tiffany Southwest, LLC, #565194-BB · Diane Hart Alexander, Designated Broker, #574877-B.